2021 04 23 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Torquay vs Notts County at 24 April 2021
Maidenhead vs Woking at 24 April 2021
Solihull vs Yeovil at 24 April 2021
Wrexham vs Chesterfield at 24 April 2021
Hartlepool vs Weymouth at 24 April 2021
Aldershot vs Wealdstone at 24 April 2021
Altrincham vs Barnet at 24 April 2021
Halifax vs Bromley at 24 April 2021
Boreham Wood vs Stockport at 24 April 2021
Eastleigh vs Sutton at 24 April 2021
King’s Lynn vs Dag and Red at 24 April 2021


Torquay vs Notts County at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.29

2.20

1.8

Draw

3.26

3.83

-4.6

Notts County

2.91

3.51

-5.9

Over 2.5

1.95

1.98

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.81

2.02

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Woking

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Woking

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Apr

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Torquay is 0.726 and for the Notts County is -0.341.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is 0.071 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.472.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is 0.682 and for the Notts County is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is 0.605 and for the Notts County is -0.657.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

23%

31%

25%

21%

Notts County

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.34 goals and Notts County to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.44 goals and Notts County to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.92

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.15

4+

3.91

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.49

3.11

2-3 goals

2.08

4.33

3.47

4+ goals

2.15

3.37

4.20

Ov 1.5

2.10

3.94

3.69

Un 1.5

2.55

3.49

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.83

6.63

3.29

Un 2.5

2.77

2.67

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.37

4.20

Un 3.5

2.22

4.00

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.78

4.11

No Goal

1.93

6.49

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.43

3.23

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.49

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Woking at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

1.83

2.12

-7.5

Draw

3.54

3.89

-2.5

Woking

3.89

3.69

1.4

Over 2.5

1.89

1.97

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.87

2.03

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Wealdstone

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Torquay

H

4

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Notts County

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is -0.244 and for the Woking is -0.825.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.202 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.574.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.09 and for the Woking is -0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.142 and for the Woking is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

23%

30%

25%

22%

Woking

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.6 goals and Woking to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.47 goals and Woking to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.92

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.22

4+

3.88

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.92

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.40

3.07

2-3 goals

1.96

4.54

3.71

4+ goals

2.03

3.44

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.98

4.09

3.98

Un 1.5

2.63

3.40

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.76

3.62

Un 2.5

2.73

2.70

3.78

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.44

4.61

Un 3.5

2.15

4.07

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.85

4.43

No Goal

1.90

6.41

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.48

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.41

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Solihull vs Yeovil at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

2.27

2.09

3.8

Draw

3.48

3.92

-3.2

Yeovil

3.07

3.76

-6.0

Over 2.5

1.90

1.97

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.94

2.03

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull (3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Dag and Red

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Notts County

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N


Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Sutton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Solihull is 0.43 and for the Yeovil is 0.294.
The home dynamic for the Solihull is 0.131 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.089.
The offensive ability for the Solihull is 0.597 and for the Yeovil is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is 0.433 and for the Yeovil is -0.545.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

23%

28%

26%

23%

Yeovil

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.42 goals and Yeovil to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.48 goals and Yeovil to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.88

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.26

4+

3.88

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.88

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.27

3.04

2-3 goals

1.90

4.75

3.79

4+ goals

1.98

3.44

4.87

Ov 1.5

1.93

4.20

4.10

Un 1.5

2.74

3.27

3.04

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.77

3.82

Un 2.5

2.75

2.72

3.71

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.44

4.87

Un 3.5

2.13

4.10

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.29

2.88

4.64

No Goal

1.92

6.22

3.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.44

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.22

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Chesterfield at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.36

2.39

-0.5

Draw

3.03

3.72

-6.1

Chesterfield

3.07

3.21

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.41

1.99

8.8

Under 2.5

1.55

2.01

-14.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Woking

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Apr

Halifax

A

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Stockport

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.037 and for the Chesterfield is 0.135.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.343 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is -0.038.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.116 and for the Chesterfield is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.202 and for the Chesterfield is 0.056.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

22%

36%

24%

18%

Chesterfield

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.16 goals and Chesterfield to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.38 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.98

1

5.41

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-