# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Torquay vs Notts County at 24 April 2021**** Maidenhead vs Woking at 24 April 2021**** Solihull vs Yeovil at 24 April 2021**** Wrexham vs Chesterfield at 24 April 2021**** Hartlepool vs Weymouth at 24 April 2021**** Aldershot vs Wealdstone at 24 April 2021**** Altrincham vs Barnet at 24 April 2021**** Halifax vs Bromley at 24 April 2021**** Boreham Wood vs Stockport at 24 April 2021**** Eastleigh vs Sutton at 24 April 2021**** King’s Lynn vs Dag and Red at 24 April 2021**

###
Torquay vs Notts County at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torquay** and **Notts County** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torquay |
2.29 |
2.20 |
1.8 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.83 |
-4.6 |

Notts County |
2.91 |
3.51 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.98 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.02 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Torquay (1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torquay** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torquay** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance** at home**.

Torquay,** at home**, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Woking |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** as a guest**.

Notts County,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Woking |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Yeovil |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Torquay** is **0.726** and for the **Notts County** is **-0.341.**

The home dynamic for the **Torquay** is **0.071** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Notts County** is **0.472.**

The offensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.682** and for the **Notts County** is **-0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.605** and for the **Notts County** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torquay** and the red line for guest team, **Notts County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torquay |
23% |
31% |
25% |
21% |

Notts County |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Torquay ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.49 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.33 |
3.47 |

4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.37 |
4.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.94 |
3.69 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.49 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
6.63 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.67 |
3.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.37 |
4.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.00 |
3.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.78 |
4.11 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
6.49 |
3.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.43 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.49 |
2.92 |

####
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###
Maidenhead vs Woking at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maidenhead** and **Woking** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maidenhead |
1.83 |
2.12 |
-7.5 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.89 |
-2.5 |

Woking |
3.89 |
3.69 |
1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.97 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.03 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Woking (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** at home**.

Maidenhead,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Wealdstone |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Barnet |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Torquay |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** as a guest**.

Woking,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Apr |
Bromley |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.244** and for the **Woking** is **-0.825.**

The home dynamic for the **Maidenhead** is **0.202** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Woking** is **-0.574.**

The offensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.09** and for the **Woking** is **-0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.142** and for the **Woking** is **-0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maidenhead** and the red line for guest team, **Woking. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maidenhead |
23% |
30% |
25% |
22% |

Woking |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Woking** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Maidenhead ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Woking** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Maidenhead ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.40 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.54 |
3.71 |

4+ goals |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.09 |
3.98 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.40 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.76 |
3.62 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.70 |
3.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
4.07 |
3.46 |

Goal-Goal |
2.37 |
2.85 |
4.43 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.41 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.48 |
3.51 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.41 |
2.96 |

####
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###
Solihull vs Yeovil at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Solihull** and **Yeovil** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Solihull |
2.27 |
2.09 |
3.8 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.92 |
-3.2 |

Yeovil |
3.07 |
3.76 |
-6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.97 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.03 |
-2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Solihull (3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Solihull** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Solihull** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance** at home**.

Solihull,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Aldershot |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bromley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** as a guest**.

Yeovil,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Notts County |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Woking |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Solihull** is **0.43** and for the **Yeovil** is **0.294.**

The home dynamic for the **Solihull** is **0.131** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Yeovil** is **-0.089.**

The offensive ability for the **Solihull** is **0.597** and for the **Yeovil** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Solihull** is **0.433** and for the **Yeovil** is **-0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Solihull** and the red line for guest team, **Yeovil. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Solihull |
23% |
28% |
26% |
23% |

Yeovil |
34% |
36% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Solihull** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Solihull** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Solihull ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.27 |
3.04 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.75 |
3.79 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.44 |
4.87 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
4.20 |
4.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.27 |
3.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.77 |
3.82 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.72 |
3.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.44 |
4.87 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
4.10 |
3.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.29 |
2.88 |
4.64 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
6.22 |
3.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.44 |
3.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.22 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wrexham vs Chesterfield at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **Chesterfield** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
2.36 |
2.39 |
-0.5 |

Draw |
3.03 |
3.72 |
-6.1 |

Chesterfield |
3.07 |
3.21 |
-1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
1.99 |
8.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
2.01 |
-14.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (8.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Woking |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Bromley |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Mar |
Eastleigh |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Chesterfield,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.037** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.135.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.343** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chesterfield** is **-0.038.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **-0.116** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.202** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.056.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **Chesterfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
22% |
36% |
24% |
18% |

Chesterfield |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |