# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Willem II vs Waalwijk at 23 April 2021**** Sparta Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo at 24 April 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen at 24 April 2021**** Heerenveen vs Zwolle at 24 April 2021**** Den Haag vs For Sittard at 25 April 2021**** Twente vs Utrecht at 25 April 2021**** FC Emmen vs Heracles at 25 April 2021**** Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar at 25 April 2021**** Feyenoord vs Vitesse at 25 April 2021**

###
Willem II vs Waalwijk at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Willem II** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **23 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Willem II |
1.95 |
2.26 |
-7.0 |

Draw |
3.56 |
3.98 |
-3.0 |

Waalwijk |
3.74 |
3.27 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.68 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.48 |
-7.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** at home**.

Willem II,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Groningen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Willem II** is **-0.089** and for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.484.**

The home dynamic for the **Willem II** is **-0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.498.**

The offensive ability for the **Willem II** is **-0.288** and for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Willem II** is **-0.288** and for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.682.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Willem II** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Willem II |
21% |
27% |
26% |
26% |

Waalwijk |
25% |
36% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.68 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Willem II ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
5.15 |

1 |
7.04 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
2.92 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |

4 |
5.08 |
Un 1.5 |
5.15 |

5 |
9.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.48 |

Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.92 |

NoG |
2.46 |
Un 3.5 |
1.52 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.73 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
4.87 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.32 |
3.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
4.07 |
3.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.73 |
2.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.79 |
3.26 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.74 |
3.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.32 |
3.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
4.47 |
3.01 |

Goal-Goal |
2.42 |
2.99 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
7.83 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
4.83 |
3.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
7.83 |
2.50 |

####
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###
Sparta Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
1.56 |
2.17 |
-18.0 |

Draw |
4.09 |
3.83 |
1.7 |

VVV Venlo |
5.70 |
3.61 |
10.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.96 |
-4.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.04 |
0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 10.2 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Groningen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.296** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.737** and the dynamic as a guest for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.668.**

The offensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.545** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.288** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
23% |
29% |
26% |
22% |

VVV Venlo |
28% |
44% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.93 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.46 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.82 |
2.43 |

2-3 goals |
1.99 |
3.87 |
4.20 |

4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.82 |
4.27 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.82 |
2.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.30 |
3.79 |

Un 2.5 |
3.18 |
2.55 |
3.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.73 |
4.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.85 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.25 |
2.81 |
4.99 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
6.86 |
2.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.10 |
3.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.86 |
2.53 |

####
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###
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PSV Eindhoven** and **Groningen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.32 |
1.72 |
-17.6 |

Draw |
5.03 |
4.48 |
2.4 |

Groningen |
8.91 |
5.08 |
8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.75 |
-3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.33 |
-2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Groningen (2.4 %, 8.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** at home**.

PSV Eindhoven,** at home**, had 11 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Vitesse |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** as a guest**.

Groningen,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **PSV Eindhoven** is **0.356** and for the **Groningen** is **-0.143.**

The home dynamic for the **PSV Eindhoven** is **0.929** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Groningen** is **-0.209.**

The offensive ability for the **PSV Eindhoven** is **0.597** and for the **Groningen** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **PSV Eindhoven** is **-0.116** and for the **Groningen** is **-0.253.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PSV Eindhoven** and the red line for guest team, **Groningen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PSV Eindhoven |
18% |
20% |
33% |
30% |

Groningen |
39% |
32% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.29 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **0.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.88 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
3.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.88 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
2.93 |
3.53 |

2-3 goals |
1.42 |
7.95 |
5.83 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.28 |
5.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
5.22 |
5.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
2.93 |
3.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
6.39 |
5.27 |

Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
3.23 |
4.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.28 |
5.41 |

Un 3.5 |
1.65 |
5.31 |
4.90 |

Goal-Goal |
1.95 |
3.26 |
5.57 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
7.17 |
4.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
4.87 |
4.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
7.17 |
4.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Heerenveen vs Zwolle at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heerenveen** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heerenveen |
2.07 |
1.91 |
4.0 |

Draw |
3.66 |
4.20 |
-3.5 |

Zwolle |
3.29 |
4.20 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.78 |
-3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.28 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heerenveen (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** at home**.

Heerenveen,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Apr |
Groningen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Twente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Heerenveen** is **-0.133** and for the **Zwolle** is **0.087.**

The home dynamic for the **Heerenveen** is **0.283** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Zwolle** is **-0.455.**

The offensive ability for the **Heerenveen** is **0.597** and for the **Zwolle** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Heerenveen** is **0.202** and for the **Zwolle** is **-0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heerenveen** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heerenveen |
20% |
23% |
30% |
27% |

Zwolle |
34% |
35% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heerenveen** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the home team **Heerenveen ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heerenveen** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the home team **Heerenveen ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.59 |

1 |
6.67 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.37 |

3 |
3.77 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.59 |
Un 1.5 |
4.59 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |