2021 04 23 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Willem II vs Waalwijk at 23 April 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo at 24 April 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen at 24 April 2021
Heerenveen vs Zwolle at 24 April 2021
Den Haag vs For Sittard at 25 April 2021
Twente vs Utrecht at 25 April 2021
FC Emmen vs Heracles at 25 April 2021
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar at 25 April 2021
Feyenoord vs Vitesse at 25 April 2021


Willem II vs Waalwijk at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

1.95

2.26

-7.0

Draw

3.56

3.98

-3.0

Waalwijk

3.74

3.27

3.8

Over 2.5

1.75

1.68

2.4

Under 2.5

2.11

2.48

-7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Heracles

A

0

4

L

O

N

03 Apr

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Vitesse

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Utrecht

H

0

6

L

O

N


Waalwijk in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Ajax

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

FC Emmen

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Groningen

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Utrecht

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Willem II is -0.089 and for the Waalwijk is -0.484.
The home dynamic for the Willem II is -0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Waalwijk is -0.498.
The offensive ability for the Willem II is -0.288 and for the Waalwijk is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Willem II is -0.288 and for the Waalwijk is -0.682.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

21%

27%

26%

26%

Waalwijk

25%

36%

23%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.68 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.57 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.23

0-1

5.15

1

7.04

2-3

2.16

2

4.78

4+

2.92

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

5.08

Un 1.5

5.15

5

9.71

Ov 2.5

1.68

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.48

Gg

1.69

Ov 3.5

2.92

NoG

2.46

Un 3.5

1.52

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.73

2.59

2-3 goals

2.06

4.87

3.24

4+ goals

2.26

3.32

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.14

4.07

3.48

Un 1.5

2.90

3.73

2.59

Ov 2.5

1.92

5.79

3.26

Un 2.5

3.03

2.74

3.28

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.32

3.89

Un 3.5

2.25

4.47

3.01

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.99

3.97

No Goal

2.06

7.83

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

4.83

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

7.83

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sparta Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

1.56

2.17

-18.0

Draw

4.09

3.83

1.7

VVV Venlo

5.70

3.61

10.2

Over 2.5

1.79

1.96

-4.8

Under 2.5

2.05

2.04

0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 10.2 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Zwolle

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Heracles

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

VVV Venlo

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Willem II

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ajax

A

2

4

L

O

G


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Groningen

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Zwolle

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

For Sittard

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Feyenoord

A

0

6

L

O

N

27 Feb

Vitesse

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.296 and for the VVV Venlo is -1.
The home dynamic for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.737 and the dynamic as a guest for the VVV Venlo is -0.668.
The offensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.545 and for the VVV Venlo is -0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.288 and for the VVV Venlo is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

23%

29%

26%

22%

VVV Venlo

28%

44%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.93 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.46 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.03

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.15

4+

3.83

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.03

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.82

2.43

2-3 goals

1.99

3.87

4.20

4+ goals

1.98

3.73

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.82

4.27

Un 1.5

3.06

3.82

2.43

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.30

3.79

Un 2.5

3.18

2.55

3.42

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.73

4.42

Un 3.5

2.25

3.85

3.37

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.81

4.99

No Goal

2.08

6.86

2.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.10

3.85

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.86

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PSV Eindhoven

1.32

1.72

-17.6

Draw

5.03

4.48

2.4

Groningen

8.91

5.08

8.5

Over 2.5

1.65

1.75

-3.5

Under 2.5

2.21

2.33

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Groningen (2.4 %, 8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance at home.
PSV Eindhoven, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

VVV Venlo

A

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Feyenoord

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

For Sittard

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Ajax

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Vitesse

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Den Haag

A

2

2

D

O

G


Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Heerenveen

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

VVV Venlo

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Waalwijk

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

FC Emmen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Feyenoord

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.356 and for the Groningen is -0.143.
The home dynamic for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.929 and the dynamic as a guest for the Groningen is -0.209.
The offensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.597 and for the Groningen is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the PSV Eindhoven is -0.116 and for the Groningen is -0.253.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PSV Eindhoven and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PSV Eindhoven

18%

20%

33%

30%

Groningen

39%

32%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 2.29 goals and Groningen to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.75 goals and Groningen to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.88

1

7.41

2-3

2.00

2

4.46

4+

3.42

3

3.61

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.88

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.76

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.33

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.42

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

2.93

3.53

2-3 goals

1.42

7.95

5.83

4+ goals

1.96

3.28

5.41

Ov 1.5

1.58

5.22

5.66

Un 1.5

2.66

2.93

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.53

6.39

5.27

Un 2.5

2.08

3.23

4.77

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.28

5.41

Un 3.5

1.65

5.31

4.90

Goal-Goal

1.95

3.26

5.57

No Goal

1.55

7.17

4.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

4.87

4.87

NG+Un 2.5

1.78

7.17

4.07


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Heerenveen vs Zwolle at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heerenveen and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heerenveen

2.07

1.91

4.0

Draw

3.66

4.20

-3.5

Zwolle

3.29

4.20

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.69

1.78

-3.0

Under 2.5

2.20

2.28

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heerenveen (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heerenveen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance at home.
Heerenveen, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Apr

Groningen

A

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Ajax

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Mar

Twente

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Willem II

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

4

L

O

G

21 Feb

Groningen

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G


Zwolle in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Twente

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Heracles

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Heerenveen

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

FC Emmen

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Heerenveen is -0.133 and for the Zwolle is 0.087.
The home dynamic for the Heerenveen is 0.283 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zwolle is -0.455.
The offensive ability for the Heerenveen is 0.597 and for the Zwolle is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Heerenveen is 0.202 and for the Zwolle is -0.545.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heerenveen and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heerenveen

20%

23%

30%

27%

Zwolle

34%

35%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.65 goals and Zwolle to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Heerenveen to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.64 goals and Zwolle to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Heerenveen to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.59

1

6.67

2-3

2.06

2

4.52

4+

3.37

3

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.59

Un 1.5

4.59

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.78

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.28

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.37

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at