2021 04 23 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Elche vs Levante at 24 April 2021
Valladolid vs Cadiz at 24 April 2021
Valencia vs Alaves at 24 April 2021
Real Madrid vs Betis at 24 April 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid at 25 April 2021
Celta vs Osasuna at 25 April 2021
Villarreal vs Barcelona at 25 April 2021
Sevilla vs Granada at 25 April 2021
Huesca vs Getafe at 25 April 2021
Eibar vs Sociedad at 26 April 2021


Elche vs Levante at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

2.79

2.45

5.0

Draw

3.32

3.82

-3.9

Levante

2.64

3.03

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.13

1.95

4.3

Under 2.5

1.75

2.05

-8.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (5 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sevilla

H

2

1

W

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Villarreal

H

1

5

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Elche is -0.496 and for the Levante is -0.341.
The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.293 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.226.
The offensive ability for the Elche is 0.253 and for the Levante is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -1 and for the Levante is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

25%

31%

26%

18%

Levante

30%

32%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 1.15 goals and Levante to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.36 goals and Levante to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.97

1

5.68

2-3

2.08

2

4.24

4+

3.73

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.97

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.32

3.11

2-3 goals

2.21

4.76

2.97

4+ goals

2.79

3.15

3.08

Ov 1.5

2.39

4.03

3.01

Un 1.5

2.65

3.32

3.11

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.04

2.64

Un 2.5

2.79

2.76

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.15

3.08

Un 3.5

2.34

4.14

3.02

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.81

3.35

No Goal

2.10

6.29

2.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

4.96

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.29

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valladolid vs Cadiz at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

1.97

2.20

-5.3

Draw

3.35

3.86

-3.9

Cadiz

4.30

3.50

5.3

Over 2.5

2.49

1.93

11.7

Under 2.5

1.55

2.07

-16.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 11.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Getafe

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N


Cadiz in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance as a guest.
Cadiz, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Apr

Celta

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Eibar

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Betis

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Valladolid is -0.222 and for the Cadiz is 0.056.
The home dynamic for the Valladolid is -0.586 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cadiz is -0.217.
The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 0.253 and for the Cadiz is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.657 and for the Cadiz is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

23%

29%

28%

20%

Cadiz

30%

38%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.33 goals and Cadiz to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.45 goals and Cadiz to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.13

1

5.75

2-3

2.03

2

4.17

4+

3.76

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.13

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.56

2.75

2-3 goals

1.96

4.48

3.76

4+ goals

2.25

3.28

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.05

3.97

3.83

Un 1.5

2.81

3.56

2.75

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.41

3.41

Un 2.5

2.84

2.71

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.28

3.97

Un 3.5

2.17

4.13

3.36

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.84

4.34

No Goal

2.00

6.75

2.85

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.33

3.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.75

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valencia vs Alaves at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Alaves for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

2.19

2.14

1.1

Draw

3.27

3.85

-4.6

Alaves

3.51

3.66

-1.2

Over 2.5

2.24

2.03

4.6

Under 2.5

1.67

1.97

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Osasuna

A

1

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Betis

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Sociedad

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Levante

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Mar

Villarreal

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Getafe

A

0

3

L

O

N


Alaves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance as a guest.
Alaves, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Villarreal

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Celta

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Mar

Betis

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Valencia is -0.348 and for the Alaves is 0.151.
The home dynamic for the Valencia is 0.071 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alaves is -0.626.
The offensive ability for the Valencia is 0.682 and for the Alaves is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valencia is -1 and for the Alaves is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

22%

32%

24%

21%

Alaves

35%

34%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.31 goals and Alaves to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Valencia to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.44 goals and Alaves to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Valencia to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.73

1

5.26

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

4.07

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.73

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.44

3.48

2-3 goals

2.01

4.38

3.65

4+ goals

2.20

3.46

3.90

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.02

3.73

Un 1.5

2.37

3.44

3.48

Ov 2.5

1.83

6.93

3.24

Un 2.5

2.57

2.69

4.20

Ov 3.5

2.20

3.46

3.90

Un 3.5

2.12

3.99

3.59

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.77

3.98

No Goal

1.83

6.35

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.55

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.35

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Real Madrid vs Betis at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Betis for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.50

1.88

-13.5

Draw

4.55

4.10

2.4

Betis

6.53

4.48

7.0

Over 2.5

1.68

1.98

-9.0

Under 2.5

2.26

2.02

5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Betis, Under 2.5 (2.4 %, 7 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 11 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 75.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Cadiz

A

3

0

W

O

N

18 Apr

Getafe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Barcelona

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Eibar

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Celta

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G


Betis in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance as a guest.
Betis, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Ath Bilbao

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Apr

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Alaves

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Cadiz

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Real Madrid is 0.815 and for the Betis is 0.087.
The home dynamic for the Real Madrid is 0.495 and the dynamic as a guest for the Betis is 0.081.
The offensive ability for the Real Madrid is 0.571 and for the Betis is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Real Madrid is 0.262 and for the Betis is -0.202.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Betis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

20%

28%

28%

24%

Betis

40%

33%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 2.13 goals and Betis to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 1.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.56 goals and Betis to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.89

1

5.62

2-3

2.02

2

4.20

4+

4.03

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-