# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Charlton vs Peterboro at 24 April 2021**** Sunderland vs Accrington at 24 April 2021**** Portsmouth vs Bristol Rvs at 24 April 2021**** Oxford vs Plymouth at 24 April 2021**** Lincoln vs Hull at 24 April 2021**** Gillingham vs Northampton at 24 April 2021**** Crewe vs Rochdale at 24 April 2021**** Blackpool vs Shrewsbury at 24 April 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon at 24 April 2021**** Wigan vs Burton at 24 April 2021**** Doncaster vs Fleetwood Town at 24 April 2021**** Ipswich vs AFC Wimbledon at 24 April 2021**

###
Charlton vs Peterboro at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Charlton** and **Peterboro** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Charlton |
2.72 |
2.61 |
1.5 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.69 |
-4.0 |

Peterboro |
2.58 |
2.89 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.04 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.96 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Charlton, Over 2.5 (1.5 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** at home**.

Charlton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 42.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Plymouth |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** as a guest**.

Peterboro,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 49.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Northampton |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Charlton** is **0.667** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.548.**

The home dynamic for the **Charlton** is **-0.131** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Peterboro** is **-0.072.**

The offensive ability for the **Charlton** is **0.571** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Charlton** is **0.262** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.056.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Charlton** and the red line for guest team, **Peterboro. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Charlton |
27% |
32% |
24% |
16% |

Peterboro |
26% |
37% |
25% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.58 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.53 |
4.12 |
2.76 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.13 |
3.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.72 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.58 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.22 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
3.41 |
2.65 |
3.04 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.13 |
3.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.92 |
2.70 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.69 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.40 |
6.44 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.25 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
6.44 |
2.32 |

####
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###
Sunderland vs Accrington at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Accrington** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.49 |
2.13 |
-20.2 |

Draw |
4.18 |
3.75 |
2.7 |

Accrington |
6.54 |
3.79 |
11.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.14 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.88 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Accrington, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 11.1 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Hull |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** as a guest**.

Accrington,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 41.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sunderland** is **-0.385** and for the **Accrington** is **0.071.**

The home dynamic for the **Sunderland** is **-0.121** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Accrington** is **0.174.**

The offensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **0.571** and for the **Accrington** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **-1** and for the **Accrington** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Accrington. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
21% |
36% |
26% |
18% |

Accrington |
35% |
35% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.94 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.27** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.70 |
3.70 |

2-3 goals |
2.05 |
3.98 |
3.83 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.36 |
3.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.77 |
3.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.70 |
3.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.00 |
3.13 |

Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.66 |
4.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.36 |
3.75 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.88 |
3.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.65 |
3.94 |

No Goal |
1.75 |
6.61 |
3.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.76 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.61 |
3.53 |

####
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###
Portsmouth vs Bristol Rvs at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Bristol Rvs** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
1.56 |
2.02 |
-14.6 |

Draw |
3.98 |
3.88 |
0.6 |

Bristol Rvs |
5.77 |
4.03 |
7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.07 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.93 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Bristol Rvs (0.6 %, 7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 46.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Burton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol Rvs,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.259** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.468.**

The home dynamic for the **Portsmouth** is **0.02** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **0.167** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.253** and for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol Rvs. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
20% |
33% |
28% |
19% |

Bristol Rvs |
37% |
35% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.63 |
3.79 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
4.29 |
4.40 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.41 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.96 |
4.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.63 |
3.79 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.99 |
3.35 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.74 |
4.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.41 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.04 |
4.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.73 |
4.13 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.77 |
3.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
5.67 |
3.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.77 |
3.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs Plymouth at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Plymouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
1.62 |
2.04 |
-12.7 |

Draw |
3.96 |
3.83 |
0.9 |

Plymouth |
5.15 |
4.02 |
5.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.10 |
-8.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.91 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Plymouth, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.5 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 58.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Plymouth,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 25.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Burton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Oxford** is **0.037** and for the **Plymouth** is **-0.341.**

The home dynamic for the **Oxford** is **0.323** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Plymouth** is **-0.098.**

The offensive ability for the **Oxford** is **1** and for the **Plymouth** is **-0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.631** and for the **Plymouth** is **-0.657.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Plymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
20% |
34% |
27% |
19% |

Plymouth |
37% |
35% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.88 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **1.07** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |