2021 04 23 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Charlton vs Peterboro at 24 April 2021
Sunderland vs Accrington at 24 April 2021
Portsmouth vs Bristol Rvs at 24 April 2021
Oxford vs Plymouth at 24 April 2021
Lincoln vs Hull at 24 April 2021
Gillingham vs Northampton at 24 April 2021
Crewe vs Rochdale at 24 April 2021
Blackpool vs Shrewsbury at 24 April 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon at 24 April 2021
Wigan vs Burton at 24 April 2021
Doncaster vs Fleetwood Town at 24 April 2021
Ipswich vs AFC Wimbledon at 24 April 2021


Charlton vs Peterboro at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Charlton

2.72

2.61

1.5

Draw

3.22

3.69

-4.0

Peterboro

2.58

2.89

-4.2

Over 2.5

2.08

2.04

0.9

Under 2.5

1.74

1.96

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Charlton, Over 2.5 (1.5 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Charlton in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 42.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Plymouth

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G


Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 49.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Gillingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Apr

Northampton

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Accrington

H

7

0

W

O

N

23 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the Charlton is 0.667 and for the Peterboro is 0.548.
The home dynamic for the Charlton is -0.131 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is -0.072.
The offensive ability for the Charlton is 0.571 and for the Peterboro is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Charlton is 0.262 and for the Peterboro is 0.056.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Charlton

27%

32%

24%

16%

Peterboro

26%

37%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.16 goals and Peterboro to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.3 goals and Peterboro to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.88

1

5.38

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.05

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.58

2.58

2-3 goals

2.53

4.12

2.76

4+ goals

2.42

3.13

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.72

3.02

Un 1.5

3.00

3.58

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.22

2.76

Un 2.5

3.41

2.65

3.04

Ov 3.5

2.42

3.13

3.74

Un 3.5

2.68

3.92

2.70

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.69

3.66

No Goal

2.40

6.44

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.25

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

6.44

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Accrington at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.49

2.13

-20.2

Draw

4.18

3.75

2.7

Accrington

6.54

3.79

11.1

Over 2.5

1.84

2.14

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.98

1.88

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Accrington, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 11.1 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 55.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Hull

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Wigan

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Charlton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Peterboro

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Oxford

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G


Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 41.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rochdale

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Apr

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Burton

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

7

L

O

N

20 Mar

Wigan

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sunderland is -0.385 and for the Accrington is 0.071.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.121 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is 0.174.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.571 and for the Accrington is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is -1 and for the Accrington is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

21%

36%

26%

18%

Accrington

35%

35%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.94 goals and Accrington to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.4 goals and Accrington to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.65

1

5.00

2-3

1.99

2

3.88

4+

4.44

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.65

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.70

3.70

2-3 goals

2.05

3.98

3.83

4+ goals

2.30

3.36

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.77

3.81

Un 1.5

2.17

3.70

3.70

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.00

3.13

Un 2.5

2.45

2.66

4.63

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.36

3.75

Un 3.5

2.09

3.88

3.79

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.65

3.94

No Goal

1.75

6.61

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.76

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.61

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Bristol Rvs at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.56

2.02

-14.6

Draw

3.98

3.88

0.6

Bristol Rvs

5.77

4.03

7.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.07

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.85

1.93

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bristol Rvs (0.6 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 46.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Swindon

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Crewe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Northampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Swindon

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Plymouth

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.259 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.468.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol Rvs is -0.251.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.167 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.253 and for the Bristol Rvs is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

20%

33%

28%

19%

Bristol Rvs

37%

35%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.79 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.47 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.77

1

5.21

2-3

1.99

2

3.92

4+

4.26

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.63

3.79

2-3 goals

1.85

4.29

4.40

4+ goals

2.33

3.41

3.62

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.96

4.12

Un 1.5

2.17

3.63

3.79

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.99

3.35

Un 2.5

2.31

2.74

4.95

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.41

3.62

Un 3.5

1.95

4.04

4.17

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.73

4.13

No Goal

1.67

6.77

3.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

5.67

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.77

3.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oxford vs Plymouth at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

1.62

2.04

-12.7

Draw

3.96

3.83

0.9

Plymouth

5.15

4.02

5.5

Over 2.5

1.77

2.10

-8.9

Under 2.5

2.03

1.91

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Plymouth, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.5 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 58.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Gillingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Crewe

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Accrington

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Sunderland

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Mar

Lincoln

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N


Plymouth in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 25.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Charlton

H

0

6

L

O

N

17 Apr

Burton

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Shrewsbury

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Blackpool

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Oxford is 0.037 and for the Plymouth is -0.341.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.323 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.098.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is 1 and for the Plymouth is -0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.631 and for the Plymouth is -0.657.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

20%

34%

27%

19%

Plymouth

37%

35%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.88 goals and Plymouth to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.45 goals and Plymouth to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.73

1

5.13

2-3

2.00

2

3.91

4+

4.35

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals