# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Scunthorpe vs Walsall at 24 April 2021**** Carlisle vs Harrogate at 24 April 2021**** Cheltenham vs Colchester at 24 April 2021**** Crawley Town vs Forest Green at 24 April 2021**** Exeter vs Newport County at 24 April 2021**** Morecambe vs Bolton at 24 April 2021**** Oldham vs Grimsby at 24 April 2021**** Cambridge vs Stevenage at 24 April 2021**** Salford vs Mansfield at 24 April 2021**** Southend vs Leyton Orient at 24 April 2021**** Tranmere vs Barrow at 24 April 2021**** Port Vale vs Bradford at 24 April 2021**

###
Scunthorpe vs Walsall at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.91 |
2.61 |
3.9 |

Draw |
3.03 |
3.62 |
-5.4 |

Walsall |
2.55 |
2.93 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.24 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.81 |
-8.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (3.9 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 13 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Salford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.704** and for the **Walsall** is **0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.232** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **0.106.**

The offensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.485** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.313** and for the **Walsall** is **0.056.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
30% |
31% |
26% |
13% |

Walsall |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.07 |
3.20 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
4.39 |
2.96 |

4+ goals |
2.90 |
2.99 |
3.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.85 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
3.07 |
3.20 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.31 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.70 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.90 |
2.99 |
3.12 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.85 |
2.88 |

Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.65 |
3.59 |

No Goal |
2.38 |
5.56 |
2.50 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.25 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.56 |
2.57 |

####
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###
Carlisle vs Harrogate at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
2.21 |
2.37 |
-3.1 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.65 |
-1.9 |

Harrogate |
3.49 |
3.29 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.20 |
2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.83 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Harrogate, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 12 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Carlisle** is **0.089** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.27.**

The home dynamic for the **Carlisle** is **0.414** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Harrogate** is **0.047.**

The offensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **-0.288** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.13.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **0.485** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.682.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
26% |
33% |
26% |
15% |

Harrogate |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.42 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.06 |
3.37 |

4+ goals |
2.45 |
3.18 |
3.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.74 |
3.44 |

Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.42 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.71 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.64 |
3.66 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.18 |
3.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.80 |
3.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.63 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
5.95 |
2.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.57 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.95 |
2.84 |

####
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###
Cheltenham vs Colchester at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.62 |
2.18 |
-15.9 |

Draw |
3.79 |
3.77 |
0.1 |

Colchester |
5.38 |
3.61 |
9.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.04 |
-0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
-5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Colchester (0.1 %, 9.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 10 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 20.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cheltenham** is **0.2** and for the **Colchester** is **0.151.**

The home dynamic for the **Cheltenham** is **0.091** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Colchester** is **-0.353.**

The offensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.253** and for the **Colchester** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.202** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
22% |
32% |
28% |
18% |

Colchester |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.98** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.30 |
3.75 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.16 |
4.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.85 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.45 |
3.31 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.70 |
3.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.16 |
4.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
4.02 |
3.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.72 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
6.60 |
3.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.37 |
3.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.60 |
3.05 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crawley Town vs Forest Green at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
2.91 |
2.53 |
5.2 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.62 |
-3.0 |

Forest Green |
2.40 |
3.06 |
-9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.24 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.81 |
-3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town (5.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 50.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Salford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Crawley Town** is **0.015** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.389.**

The home dynamic for the **Crawley Town** is **0** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Forest Green** is **0.2.**

The offensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.142** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **0.519** and for the **Forest Green** is **-0.545.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
29% |
32% |
26% |
14% |

Forest Green |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |