2021 04 23 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Scunthorpe vs Walsall at 24 April 2021
Carlisle vs Harrogate at 24 April 2021
Cheltenham vs Colchester at 24 April 2021
Crawley Town vs Forest Green at 24 April 2021
Exeter vs Newport County at 24 April 2021
Morecambe vs Bolton at 24 April 2021
Oldham vs Grimsby at 24 April 2021
Cambridge vs Stevenage at 24 April 2021
Salford vs Mansfield at 24 April 2021
Southend vs Leyton Orient at 24 April 2021
Tranmere vs Barrow at 24 April 2021
Port Vale vs Bradford at 24 April 2021


Scunthorpe vs Walsall at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

2.91

2.61

3.9

Draw

3.03

3.62

-5.4

Walsall

2.55

2.93

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.35

2.24

2.1

Under 2.5

1.58

1.81

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (3.9 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Mansfield

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Morecambe

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Southend

H

1

1

D

U

G


Walsall in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 13 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Salford

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Tranmere

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Harrogate

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Scunthorpe is -0.704 and for the Walsall is 0.016.
The home dynamic for the Scunthorpe is -0.232 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is 0.106.
The offensive ability for the Scunthorpe is -0.485 and for the Walsall is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Scunthorpe is -0.313 and for the Walsall is 0.056.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

30%

31%

26%

13%

Walsall

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.03 goals and Walsall to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.22 goals and Walsall to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.36

1

4.88

2-3

2.03

2

3.91

4+

4.72

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.20

2.76

2-3 goals

2.30

4.39

2.96

4+ goals

2.90

2.99

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.85

3.01

Un 1.5

3.07

3.20

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.16

6.31

2.64

Un 2.5

3.13

2.70

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.90

2.99

3.12

Un 3.5

2.54

3.85

2.88

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.65

3.59

No Goal

2.38

5.56

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.25

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.50

5.56

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Harrogate at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

2.21

2.37

-3.1

Draw

3.41

3.65

-1.9

Harrogate

3.49

3.29

1.7

Over 2.5

2.30

2.20

2.0

Under 2.5

1.66

1.83

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 12 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G


Harrogate in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Oldham

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Walsall

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Morecambe

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Carlisle is 0.089 and for the Harrogate is -0.27.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.414 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.047.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is -0.288 and for the Harrogate is -0.13.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is 0.485 and for the Harrogate is -0.682.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

26%

33%

26%

15%

Harrogate

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.3 goals and Harrogate to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.3 goals and Harrogate to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.48

1

4.93

2-3

2.00

2

3.86

4+

4.63

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.48

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.42

2.99

2-3 goals

2.19

4.06

3.37

4+ goals

2.45

3.18

3.60

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.74

3.44

Un 1.5

2.68

3.42

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.96

6.71

2.94

Un 2.5

2.87

2.64

3.66

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.18

3.60

Un 3.5

2.35

3.80

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.63

3.92

No Goal

2.08

5.95

2.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.57

2.96

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

5.95

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cheltenham vs Colchester at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.62

2.18

-15.9

Draw

3.79

3.77

0.1

Colchester

5.38

3.61

9.1

Over 2.5

2.01

2.04

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.96

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Colchester (0.1 %, 9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 61.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N


Colchester in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 10 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 20.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Walsall

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Apr

Oldham

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barrow

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Bolton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Tranmere

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Port Vale

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Cheltenham is 0.2 and for the Colchester is 0.151.
The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.091 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is -0.353.
The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.253 and for the Colchester is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.202 and for the Colchester is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

22%

32%

28%

18%

Colchester

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.7 goals and Colchester to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.42 goals and Colchester to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.89

1

5.41

2-3

1.99

2

3.95

4+

4.17

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.89

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.57

3.10

2-3 goals

2.00

4.30

3.75

4+ goals

2.31

3.16

4.00

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.85

3.83

Un 1.5

2.52

3.57

3.10

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.45

3.31

Un 2.5

2.66

2.70

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.16

4.00

Un 3.5

2.15

4.02

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.72

4.20

No Goal

1.89

6.60

3.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.37

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.60

3.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crawley Town vs Forest Green at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

2.91

2.53

5.2

Draw

3.27

3.62

-3.0

Forest Green

2.40

3.06

-9.0

Over 2.5

2.12

2.24

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.70

1.81

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town (5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Newport County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Apr

Cheltenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bradford

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Oldham

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

3

L

O

G


Forest Green in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 50.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Exeter

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Walsall

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Salford

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Bradford

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Mar

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Mansfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Crawley Town is 0.015 and for the Forest Green is -0.389.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0 and the dynamic as a guest for the Forest Green is 0.2.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is -0.142 and for the Forest Green is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.519 and for the Forest Green is -0.545.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

29%

32%

26%

14%

Forest Green

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.08 goals and Forest Green to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.24 goals and Forest Green to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.38

1

4.85

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.76

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.38

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals