2021 04 23 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reims vs Marseille at 23 April 2021
St Etienne vs Brest at 24 April 2021
Metz vs Paris SG at 24 April 2021
Nice vs Montpellier at 25 April 2021
Strasbourg vs Nantes at 25 April 2021
Lorient vs Bordeaux at 25 April 2021
Lens vs Nimes at 25 April 2021
Angers vs Monaco at 25 April 2021
Rennes vs Dijon at 25 April 2021
Lyon vs Lille at 25 April 2021


Reims vs Marseille at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

3.52

2.51

11.4

Draw

3.40

3.50

-0.8

Marseille

2.14

3.16

-15.1

Over 2.5

2.11

2.48

-7.1

Under 2.5

1.75

1.68

2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims, Under 2.5 (11.4 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Metz

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Nice

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Rennes

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Montpellier

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G


Marseille in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Lorient

H

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Montpellier

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Dijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Nice

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Reims is 0.296 and for the Marseille is 0.603.
The home dynamic for the Reims is 0.04 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.081.
The offensive ability for the Reims is 0.116 and for the Marseille is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reims is 0.262 and for the Marseille is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

28%

38%

24%

11%

Marseille

36%

36%

17%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 0.97 goals and Marseille to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the guest team Marseille to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.17 goals and Marseille to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.02

1

4.31

2-3

2.06

2

3.77

4+

5.43

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.02

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

5.43

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.34

3.38

2-3 goals

2.33

3.62

3.39

4+ goals

3.29

3.47

2.45

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.58

3.07

Un 1.5

2.47

3.34

3.38

Ov 2.5

2.26

7.62

2.35

Un 2.5

2.72

2.56

4.14

Ov 3.5

3.29

3.47

2.45

Un 3.5

2.39

3.50

3.39

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.49

3.38

No Goal

2.08

5.39

3.00

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

6.26

2.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

5.39

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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St Etienne vs Brest at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

2.10

2.11

-0.2

Draw

3.47

3.75

-2.2

Brest

3.60

3.83

-1.7

Over 2.5

2.01

2.28

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.84

1.78

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Paris SG

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Bordeaux

H

4

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Mar

Monaco

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Mar

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lens

H

2

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

Lorient

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G


Brest in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Nimes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Mar

Dijon

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Monaco

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Feb

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the St Etienne is 0.015 and for the Brest is -0.127.
The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.192 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.532.
The offensive ability for the St Etienne is 0.631 and for the Brest is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is -0.253 and for the Brest is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

25%

29%

32%

14%

Brest

38%

36%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.46 goals and Brest to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team St Etienne to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.35 goals and Brest to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team St Etienne to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.41

1

5.00

2-3

1.97

2

3.75

4+

5.03

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.41

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.15

3.26

2-3 goals

1.78

4.75

4.42

4+ goals

2.62

2.97

3.55

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.06

4.13

Un 1.5

2.66

3.15

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.80

6.57

3.41

Un 2.5

2.46

2.80

4.24

Ov 3.5

2.62

2.97

3.55

Un 3.5

2.02

4.00

3.91

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.71

4.44

No Goal

1.88

5.69

3.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.43

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

5.69

3.43


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Metz vs Paris SG at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Metz and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Metz

11.01

2.97

24.6

Draw

5.66

3.51

10.8

Paris SG

1.29

2.64

-39.6

Over 2.5

1.65

2.46

-20.0

Under 2.5

2.33

1.68

16.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Metz, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.6 %, 10.8 %, 16.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Metz in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance at home.
Metz, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Monaco

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Mar

Rennes

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Angers

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G


Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

St Etienne

H

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Strasbourg

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lyon

A

4

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Mar

Bordeaux

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Dijon

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Monaco

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Metz is -0.652 and for the Paris SG is 0.452.
The home dynamic for the Metz is 0.131 and the dynamic as a guest for the Paris SG is 0.481.
The offensive ability for the Metz is -0.605 and for the Paris SG is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Metz is -0.545 and for the Paris SG is -0.682.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Metz and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Metz

33%

38%

20%

9%

Paris SG

34%

34%

11%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 0.5 goals and Paris SG to score 2.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.04 goals and Paris SG to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.77

0-1

2.79

1

4.08

2-3

2.26

2

4.27

4+

5.05

3

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

7.69

Un 1.5

2.79

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.28

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.15

3.12

2-3 goals

2.66

3.37

3.05

4+ goals

4.83

5.08

1.68

Ov 1.5

3.09

3.76

2.43

Un 1.5

2.76

3.15

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.90

10.41

1.79

Un 2.5

3.01

2.42

3.93

Ov 3.5

4.83

5.08

1.68

Un 3.5

2.71

3.27

3.08

Goal-Goal

4.02

2.58

2.75

No Goal

2.46

4.92

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.82

7.87

1.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

4.92

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nice vs Montpellier at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

2.74

2.27

7.6

Draw

3.30

3.76

-3.7

Montpellier

2.59

3.40

-9.2

Over 2.5

1.81

2.31

-12.0

Under 2.5

2.02

1.76

7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Under 2.5 (7.6 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Dijon

A

0

2

L

U

N

11 Apr

Reims

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Marseille

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lorient

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G


Montpellier in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Lille

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Marseille

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Angers

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Rennes

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Nice is 0.274 and for the Montpellier is 0.246.
The home dynamic for the Nice is -0.545 and the dynamic as a guest for the Montpellier is 0.191.
The offensive ability for the Nice is 0.116 and for the Montpellier is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is -0.202 and for the Montpellier is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

28%

28%

34%

11%

Montpellier

36%

36%

16%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.3 goals and Montpellier to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.28 goals and Montpellier to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.32

1

5.00

2-3

1.98

2

3.77

4+

5.10

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.32

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

5.10

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01