# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Arsenal vs Everton at 23 April 2021**** West Ham vs Chelsea at 24 April 2021**** Sheffield United vs Brighton at 24 April 2021**** Liverpool vs Newcastle at 24 April 2021**** Aston Villa vs West Brom at 25 April 2021**** Wolves vs Burnley at 25 April 2021**** Leeds vs Man United at 25 April 2021**** Leicester vs Crystal Palace at 26 April 2021**

###
Arsenal vs Everton at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Arsenal** and **Everton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **23 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Arsenal |
2.15 |
2.90 |
-12.0 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.82 |
-3.1 |

Everton |
3.56 |
2.54 |
11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.97 |
0.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.03 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Everton, Over 2.5 (11.3 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** at home**.

Arsenal,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Apr |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Apr |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** as a guest**.

Everton,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Arsenal** is **0.163** and for the **Everton** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Arsenal** is **0.081** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Everton** is **0.753.**

The offensive ability for the **Arsenal** is **0.597** and for the **Everton** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Arsenal** is **-0.571** and for the **Everton** is **-0.253.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Arsenal** and the red line for guest team, **Everton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Arsenal |
30% |
30% |
26% |
14% |

Everton |
26% |
33% |
23% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.29 |
3.25 |
2.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.54 |
4.85 |
2.50 |

4+ goals |
3.35 |
3.14 |
2.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.78 |
4.07 |
2.54 |

Un 1.5 |
3.29 |
3.25 |
2.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.10 |
2.27 |

Un 2.5 |
3.39 |
2.76 |
2.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.35 |
3.14 |
2.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
4.14 |
2.52 |

Goal-Goal |
3.15 |
2.82 |
3.05 |

No Goal |
2.66 |
6.14 |
2.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |
4.99 |
2.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
6.14 |
2.33 |

####
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###
West Ham vs Chelsea at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Ham** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Ham |
4.52 |
2.34 |
20.6 |

Draw |
3.71 |
3.89 |
-1.2 |

Chelsea |
1.81 |
3.16 |
-23.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.93 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.07 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham, Over 2.5 (20.6 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** at home**.

West Ham,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Arsenal |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Man City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **West Ham** is **0.148** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.389.**

The home dynamic for the **West Ham** is **0.263** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chelsea** is **0.174.**

The offensive ability for the **West Ham** is **0.657** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **West Ham** is **-0.682** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.485.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Ham** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Ham |
26% |
26% |
30% |
18% |

Chelsea |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.13 |
3.17 |
2.74 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
5.32 |
3.36 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
3.05 |
3.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
4.20 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
3.17 |
2.74 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.88 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.85 |
3.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.05 |
3.31 |

Un 3.5 |
2.23 |
4.33 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.89 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.18 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
4.84 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.18 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Sheffield United vs Brighton at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
5.26 |
3.65 |
8.4 |

Draw |
3.54 |
4.03 |
-3.4 |

Brighton |
1.75 |
2.09 |
-9.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
1.89 |
10.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
2.13 |
-15.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 10.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Everton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.726** and for the **Brighton** is **0.071.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.747** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brighton** is **-0.081.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.605** and for the **Brighton** is **0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.682** and for the **Brighton** is **0.262.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
36% |
23% |
35% |
6% |

Brighton |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **0.69 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and the guest team **Brighton ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Brighton ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
10.53 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.98 |
3.12 |
2.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.58 |
6.99 |
2.13 |

4+ goals |
7.91 |
2.64 |
2.02 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.38 |
4.42 |
2.09 |

Un 1.5 |
4.98 |
3.12 |
2.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.44 |
5.20 |
1.93 |

Un 2.5 |
3.94 |
3.21 |
2.30 |

Ov 3.5 |
7.91 |
2.64 |
2.02 |

Un 3.5 |
3.05 |
5.00 |
2.12 |

Goal-Goal |
3.56 |
2.92 |
2.65 |

No Goal |
3.76 |
6.57 |
1.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.06 |
4.26 |
2.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
6.57 |
1.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Liverpool vs Newcastle at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Liverpool** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Liverpool |
1.26 |
1.88 |
-26.2 |

Draw |
6.16 |
4.05 |
8.5 |

Newcastle |
11.61 |
4.52 |
13.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.97 |
-13.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.03 |
7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 13.5 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** at home**.

Liverpool,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Mar |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Everton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Liverpool** is **0.237** and for the **Newcastle** is **0.31.**

The home dynamic for the **Liverpool** is **0.141** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Newcastle** is **-0.532.**

The offensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **0.339** and for the **Newcastle** is **0.304.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **-0.227** and for the **Newcastle** is **-0.682.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Liverpool** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Liverpool |
19% |
29% |
28% |
24% |

Newcastle |
37% |
36% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **2.54 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.03** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **2.05** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.