2021 04 23 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Arsenal vs Everton at 23 April 2021
West Ham vs Chelsea at 24 April 2021
Sheffield United vs Brighton at 24 April 2021
Liverpool vs Newcastle at 24 April 2021
Aston Villa vs West Brom at 25 April 2021
Wolves vs Burnley at 25 April 2021
Leeds vs Man United at 25 April 2021
Leicester vs Crystal Palace at 26 April 2021


Arsenal vs Everton at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Arsenal and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Arsenal

2.15

2.90

-12.0

Draw

3.41

3.82

-3.1

Everton

3.56

2.54

11.3

Over 2.5

1.98

1.97

0.3

Under 2.5

1.86

2.03

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Over 2.5 (11.3 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Arsenal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance at home.
Arsenal, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Sheffield United

A

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Liverpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

West Ham

A

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N


Everton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Apr

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Burnley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Mar

West Brom

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Southampton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Liverpool

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Arsenal is 0.163 and for the Everton is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Arsenal is 0.081 and the dynamic as a guest for the Everton is 0.753.
The offensive ability for the Arsenal is 0.597 and for the Everton is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Arsenal is -0.571 and for the Everton is -0.253.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Arsenal and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Arsenal

30%

30%

26%

14%

Everton

26%

33%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.46 goals and Everton to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Arsenal to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.23 goals and Everton to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.89

1

5.62

2-3

2.08

2

4.26

4+

3.83

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

3.25

2.57

2-3 goals

2.54

4.85

2.50

4+ goals

3.35

3.14

2.61

Ov 1.5

2.78

4.07

2.54

Un 1.5

3.29

3.25

2.57

Ov 2.5

2.53

6.10

2.27

Un 2.5

3.39

2.76

2.91

Ov 3.5

3.35

3.14

2.61

Un 3.5

2.76

4.14

2.52

Goal-Goal

3.15

2.82

3.05

No Goal

2.66

6.14

2.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.54

4.99

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.71

6.14

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Ham vs Chelsea at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Ham

4.52

2.34

20.6

Draw

3.71

3.89

-1.2

Chelsea

1.81

3.16

-23.6

Over 2.5

2.00

1.93

1.8

Under 2.5

1.84

2.07

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham, Over 2.5 (20.6 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Leicester

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Arsenal

H

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Leeds

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Man City

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Crystal Palace

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the West Ham is 0.148 and for the Chelsea is 0.389.
The home dynamic for the West Ham is 0.263 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is 0.174.
The offensive ability for the West Ham is 0.657 and for the Chelsea is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -0.682 and for the Chelsea is 0.485.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Ham

26%

26%

30%

18%

Chelsea

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 0.84 goals and Chelsea to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.4 goals and Chelsea to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.05

1

5.92

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.73

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.13

3.17

2.74

2-3 goals

1.94

5.32

3.36

4+ goals

2.71

3.05

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.16

4.20

3.34

Un 1.5

3.13

3.17

2.74

Ov 2.5

2.01

5.88

3.01

Un 2.5

2.84

2.85

3.37

Ov 3.5

2.71

3.05

3.31

Un 3.5

2.23

4.33

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.89

3.83

No Goal

2.15

6.18

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

4.84

3.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.18

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield United vs Brighton at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield United

5.26

3.65

8.4

Draw

3.54

4.03

-3.4

Brighton

1.75

2.09

-9.3

Over 2.5

2.35

1.89

10.4

Under 2.5

1.61

2.13

-15.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 10.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield United in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Arsenal

H

0

3

L

O

N

03 Apr

Leeds

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Leicester

A

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Southampton

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Fulham

A

0

1

L

U

N


Brighton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Everton

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

West Brom

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.726 and for the Brighton is 0.071.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is -0.747 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brighton is -0.081.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.605 and for the Brighton is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.682 and for the Brighton is 0.262.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield United

36%

23%

35%

6%

Brighton

21%

31%

25%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 0.69 goals and Brighton to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Brighton to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.1 goals and Brighton to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Brighton to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.27

1

6.29

2-3

2.02

2

4.26

4+

3.72

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.27

5

10.53

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.98

3.12

2.09

2-3 goals

2.58

6.99

2.13

4+ goals

7.91

2.64

2.02

Ov 1.5

3.38

4.42

2.09

Un 1.5

4.98

3.12

2.09

Ov 2.5

3.44

5.20

1.93

Un 2.5

3.94

3.21

2.30

Ov 3.5

7.91

2.64

2.02

Un 3.5

3.05

5.00

2.12

Goal-Goal

3.56

2.92

2.65

No Goal

3.76

6.57

1.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.06

4.26

2.28

NG+Un 2.5

3.34

6.57

1.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Liverpool vs Newcastle at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Liverpool and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Liverpool

1.26

1.88

-26.2

Draw

6.16

4.05

8.5

Newcastle

11.61

4.52

13.5

Over 2.5

1.56

1.97

-13.3

Under 2.5

2.42

2.03

7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 13.5 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Liverpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance at home.
Liverpool, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Apr

Leeds

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Mar

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fulham

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N


Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

West Ham

H

3

2

W

O

G

11 Apr

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Brighton

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

West Brom

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wolves

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Liverpool is 0.237 and for the Newcastle is 0.31.
The home dynamic for the Liverpool is 0.141 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newcastle is -0.532.
The offensive ability for the Liverpool is 0.339 and for the Newcastle is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is -0.227 and for the Newcastle is -0.682.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Liverpool and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Liverpool

19%

29%

28%

24%

Newcastle

37%

36%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 2.54 goals and Newcastle to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 2.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.57 goals and Newcastle to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.03

1

5.62

2-3

1.99

2

4.08

4+

3.98

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.