2021 04 23 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira at 25 April 2021
Boavista vs Maritimo at 25 April 2021
Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon at 25 April 2021
Famalicao vs Tondela at 26 April 2021
Benfica vs Santa Clara at 26 April 2021
Belenenses vs Gil Vicente at 26 April 2021
Nacional vs Guimaraes at 26 April 2021


Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

2.15

2.39

-4.7

Draw

3.20

3.62

-3.6

Pacos Ferreira

3.45

3.27

1.6

Over 2.5

2.36

2.19

3.3

Under 2.5

1.58

1.84

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Sp Braga

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Boavista

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N


Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Farense

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Apr

Boavista

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Benfica

H

0

5

L

O

N

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Mar

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Rio Ave is -0.356 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.683.
The home dynamic for the Rio Ave is -0.04 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.26.
The offensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.605 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.227 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.657.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

26%

34%

22%

17%

Pacos Ferreira

32%

39%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.26 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.3 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.38

1

4.72

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.44

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.38

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.52

2.90

2-3 goals

2.24

3.59

3.62

4+ goals

2.37

3.81

3.17

Ov 1.5

2.28

3.66

3.46

Un 1.5

2.69

3.52

2.90

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.71

2.84

Un 2.5

2.99

2.51

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.81

3.17

Un 3.5

2.40

3.57

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.60

3.94

No Goal

2.11

5.94

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

6.22

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

5.94

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boavista vs Maritimo at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.14

2.16

-0.4

Draw

3.29

3.69

-3.3

Maritimo

3.35

3.75

-3.2

Over 2.5

2.27

2.19

1.6

Under 2.5

1.61

1.84

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Farense

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Famalicao

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Guimaraes

A

1

2

L

O

G


Maritimo in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance as a guest.
Maritimo, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Rio Ave

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Benfica

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Famalicao

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Mar

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Boavista is -0.133 and for the Maritimo is 0.087.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -0.515 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maritimo is -0.379.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.339 and for the Maritimo is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.202 and for the Maritimo is -0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

24%

33%

23%

19%

Maritimo

35%

40%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.28 goals and Maritimo to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Boavista to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.38 goals and Maritimo to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Boavista to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.39

1

4.74

2-3

2.07

2

4.03

4+

4.50

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.39

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.51

3.11

2-3 goals

2.00

3.69

4.39

4+ goals

2.13

3.96

3.58

Ov 1.5

2.04

3.77

4.10

Un 1.5

2.54

3.51

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.73

8.16

3.34

Un 2.5

2.74

2.53

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.96

3.58

Un 3.5

2.17

3.62

3.80

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.65

4.46

No Goal

1.91

6.01

3.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

6.50

3.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

6.01

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Braga

2.58

3.42

-9.5

Draw

3.16

3.69

-4.5

Sp Lisbon

2.76

2.29

7.4

Over 2.5

2.08

2.17

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.75

1.85

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Lisbon (7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Braga in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance at home.
Sp Braga, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 Mar

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 11 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 36 points, 85.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Apr

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Famalicao

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Tondela

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Sp Braga is 0.207 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.571.
The home dynamic for the Sp Braga is 0.737 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
The offensive ability for the Sp Braga is 0.227 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Braga is -0.571 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.09.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Braga

34%

37%

18%

11%

Sp Lisbon

25%

33%

24%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.21 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.07 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.45

1

4.88

2-3

2.06

2

4.00

4+

4.46

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.45

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

3.41

2.61

2-3 goals

3.60

3.98

2.12

4+ goals

3.50

3.56

2.31

Ov 1.5

3.57

3.84

2.18

Un 1.5

3.09

3.41

2.61

Ov 2.5

3.03

7.30

1.88

Un 2.5

3.83

2.61

2.81

Ov 3.5

3.50

3.56

2.31

Un 3.5

3.39

3.75

2.28

Goal-Goal

3.99

2.68

2.66

No Goal

2.99

5.94

2.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.01

5.92

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.96

5.94

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Famalicao vs Tondela at 26 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 26 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

2.01

3.57

-21.7

Draw

3.29

3.75

-3.7

Tondela

3.77

2.21

18.7

Over 2.5

2.14

2.48

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.70

1.68

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Under 2.5 (18.7 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Apr

Gil Vicente

A

3

0

W

O

N

18 Apr

Portimonense

H

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Maritimo

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Mar

Sp Braga

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Boavista

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Farense

H

0

0

D

U

N


Tondela in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Apr

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Moreirense

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Portimonense

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Famalicao is 0.319 and for the Tondela is 0.325.
The home dynamic for the Famalicao is -0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -0.847.
The offensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.571 and for the Tondela is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.176 and for the Tondela is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

39%

38%

16%

7%

Tondela

35%

17%

38%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.41 goals and Tondela to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Famalicao to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.92 goals and Tondela to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the guest team Tondela to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.41

0-1

3.01

1

5.08

2-3

2.00

2

3.79

4+

6.02

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.85

Un 1.5

3.01

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.51

Ov 3.5

6.02

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-