# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira at 25 April 2021**** Boavista vs Maritimo at 25 April 2021**** Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon at 25 April 2021**** Famalicao vs Tondela at 26 April 2021**** Benfica vs Santa Clara at 26 April 2021**** Belenenses vs Gil Vicente at 26 April 2021**** Nacional vs Guimaraes at 26 April 2021**

###
Rio Ave vs Pacos Ferreira at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rio Ave** and **Pacos Ferreira** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **25 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rio Ave |
2.15 |
2.39 |
-4.7 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.62 |
-3.6 |

Pacos Ferreira |
3.45 |
3.27 |
1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.19 |
3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.84 |
-8.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** at home**.

Rio Ave,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Boavista |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** as a guest**.

Pacos Ferreira,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Farense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.356** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.683.**

The home dynamic for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.04** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.26.**

The offensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.605** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.227** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rio Ave** and the red line for guest team, **Pacos Ferreira. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rio Ave |
26% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

Pacos Ferreira |
32% |
39% |
16% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.52 |
2.90 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.59 |
3.62 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.81 |
3.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.66 |
3.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.52 |
2.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
7.71 |
2.84 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.51 |
3.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.81 |
3.17 |

Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.57 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.60 |
3.94 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.94 |
2.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.22 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.94 |
2.83 |

####
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###
Boavista vs Maritimo at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boavista** and **Maritimo** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **25 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boavista |
2.14 |
2.16 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.69 |
-3.3 |

Maritimo |
3.35 |
3.75 |
-3.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.19 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.84 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boavista** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boavista** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance** at home**.

Boavista,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Farense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Famalicao |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** as a guest**.

Maritimo,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Boavista** is **-0.133** and for the **Maritimo** is **0.087.**

The home dynamic for the **Boavista** is **-0.515** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Maritimo** is **-0.379.**

The offensive ability for the **Boavista** is **0.339** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Boavista** is **-0.202** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boavista** and the red line for guest team, **Maritimo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boavista |
24% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

Maritimo |
35% |
40% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the home team **Boavista ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Boavista ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.51 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
3.69 |
4.39 |

4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.96 |
3.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.77 |
4.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.51 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
8.16 |
3.34 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.53 |
4.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.96 |
3.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.62 |
3.80 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.65 |
4.46 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
6.01 |
3.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.50 |
3.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.01 |
3.17 |

####
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###
Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Braga** and **Sp Lisbon** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **25 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Braga |
2.58 |
3.42 |
-9.5 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.69 |
-4.5 |

Sp Lisbon |
2.76 |
2.29 |
7.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.17 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sp Lisbon (7.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Braga** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Braga** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance** at home**.

Sp Braga,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Mar |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Guimaraes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Lisbon,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 36 points, 85.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Apr |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
Farense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sp Braga** is **0.207** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.571.**

The home dynamic for the **Sp Braga** is **0.737** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sp Lisbon** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Sp Braga** is **0.227** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sp Braga** is **-0.571** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.09.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Braga** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Lisbon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Braga |
34% |
37% |
18% |
11% |

Sp Lisbon |
25% |
33% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Braga** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Braga** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
3.41 |
2.61 |

2-3 goals |
3.60 |
3.98 |
2.12 |

4+ goals |
3.50 |
3.56 |
2.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.84 |
2.18 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
3.41 |
2.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.03 |
7.30 |
1.88 |

Un 2.5 |
3.83 |
2.61 |
2.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.50 |
3.56 |
2.31 |

Un 3.5 |
3.39 |
3.75 |
2.28 |

Goal-Goal |
3.99 |
2.68 |
2.66 |

No Goal |
2.99 |
5.94 |
2.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.01 |
5.92 |
2.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
5.94 |
2.18 |

####
Go to Top

###
Famalicao vs Tondela at 26 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Famalicao** and **Tondela** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **26 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Famalicao |
2.01 |
3.57 |
-21.7 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.75 |
-3.7 |

Tondela |
3.77 |
2.21 |
18.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.48 |
-6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.68 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela, Under 2.5 (18.7 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Famalicao** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Famalicao** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance** at home**.

Famalicao,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Apr |
Gil Vicente |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Apr |
Portimonense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Maritimo |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Mar |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Farense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** as a guest**.

Tondela,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Apr |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Moreirense |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Porto |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Guimaraes |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Famalicao** is **0.319** and for the **Tondela** is **0.325.**

The home dynamic for the **Famalicao** is **-0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tondela** is **-0.847.**

The offensive ability for the **Famalicao** is **0.571** and for the **Tondela** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Famalicao** is **0.176** and for the **Tondela** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Famalicao** and the red line for guest team, **Tondela. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Famalicao |
39% |
38% |
16% |
7% |

Tondela |
35% |
17% |
38% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Famalicao ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the guest team **Tondela ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.41 |
0-1 |
3.01 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
6.02 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |

4 |
8.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.01 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.51 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.02 |

NoG |
1.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |