2021 04 23 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zaragoza vs Sp Gijon at 23 April 2021
Espanol vs Las Palmas at 24 April 2021
Malaga vs Fuenlabrada at 24 April 2021
Ponferradina vs Lugo at 24 April 2021
Logrones vs Cartagena at 24 April 2021
Mirandes vs Almeria at 25 April 2021
Alcorcon vs Leganes at 25 April 2021
Oviedo vs Girona at 25 April 2021
Tenerife vs Castellon at 25 April 2021
Sabadell vs Mallorca at 26 April 2021
Vallecano vs Albacete at 26 April 2021


Zaragoza vs Sp Gijon at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 23 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zaragoza

2.99

2.25

11.0

Draw

2.65

3.58

-9.8

Sp Gijon

2.82

3.62

-7.8

Over 2.5

3.13

2.35

10.6

Under 2.5

1.35

1.74

-16.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (11 %, 10.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zaragoza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Girona

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Fuenlabrada

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Apr

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Logrones

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Mar

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Vallecano

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N


Sp Gijon in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Gijon, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Oviedo

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Mirandes

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Mar

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Mar

Alcorcon

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Mallorca

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ponferradina

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Zaragoza is 0.296 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.349.
The home dynamic for the Zaragoza is 0.192 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.081.
The offensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0.167 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0.09 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zaragoza

25%

35%

25%

15%

Sp Gijon

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 0.88 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.3 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.42

3.31

2-3 goals

2.11

3.87

3.72

4+ goals

2.30

3.18

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Un 1.5

2.46

3.42

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.05

3.16

Un 2.5

2.67

2.63

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.18

3.98

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.53

4.20

No Goal

1.94

5.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.83

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.77

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Espanol vs Las Palmas at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.48

1.75

-10.4

Draw

3.98

4.08

-0.6

Las Palmas

7.60

5.49

5.1

Over 2.5

2.11

2.18

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.75

1.85

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Las Palmas (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 80.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Apr

Almeria

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Leganes

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Albacete

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Mar

Castellon

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Logrones

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Mirandes

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Mar

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G


Las Palmas in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Oviedo

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Mallorca

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Lugo

H

6

1

W

O

G

28 Mar

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Girona

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Vallecano

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Espanol is 0.8 and for the Las Palmas is 0.095.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.421.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 1 and for the Las Palmas is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is 0.09 and for the Las Palmas is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

18%

33%

26%

24%

Las Palmas

45%

35%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.78 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.55 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.48

1

4.78

2-3

1.97

2

3.92

4+

4.88

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.48

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.88

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.68

4.70

2-3 goals

1.64

4.42

6.12

4+ goals

1.78

4.02

5.26

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.30

5.84

Un 1.5

1.94

3.68

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.98

4.72

Un 2.5

2.06

2.81

6.30

Ov 3.5

1.78

4.02

5.26

Un 3.5

1.74

4.12

5.52

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.75

5.30

No Goal

1.47

6.97

5.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

6.69

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

6.97

4.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Malaga vs Fuenlabrada at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Malaga

2.81

2.32

7.5

Draw

2.84

3.55

-7.0

Fuenlabrada

2.81

3.48

-6.9

Over 2.5

2.63

2.40

3.6

Under 2.5

1.47

1.72

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (7.5 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Malaga in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Lugo

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Almeria

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Mar

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Logrones

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sabadell

H

2

0

W

U

N


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Apr

Sabadell

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Ponferradina

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Zaragoza

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Apr

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

29 Mar

Mallorca

H

4

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Leganes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Malaga is 0.2 and for the Fuenlabrada is 0.016.
The home dynamic for the Malaga is -0.485 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fuenlabrada is 0.115.
The offensive ability for the Malaga is 0.631 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Malaga is -0.167 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.253.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Malaga

26%

35%

25%

14%

Fuenlabrada

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.26 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ponferradina vs Lugo at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

2.06

2.02

1.0

Draw

3.09

3.76

-5.8

Lugo

3.89

4.20

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.62

2.21

7.1

Under 2.5

1.49

1.83

-12.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (1 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Apr

Leganes

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Girona

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Mar

Logrones

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Mar

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

2

2

D

O

G


Lugo in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Alcorcon

H

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Mallorca

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

6

L

O

G

28 Mar

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Castellon

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Girona

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Mar

Fuenlabrada

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Ponferradina is -0.037 and for the Lugo is -0.857.
The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is 0.303 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lugo is -0.455.
The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.571 and for the Lugo is -0.504.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is -0.571 and for the Lugo is -0.682.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

21%

34%

26%

18%

Lugo

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.23 goals and Lugo to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.42 goals and Lugo to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.52

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.81

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-