# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Zaragoza vs Sp Gijon at 23 April 2021**** Espanol vs Las Palmas at 24 April 2021**** Malaga vs Fuenlabrada at 24 April 2021**** Ponferradina vs Lugo at 24 April 2021**** Logrones vs Cartagena at 24 April 2021**** Mirandes vs Almeria at 25 April 2021**** Alcorcon vs Leganes at 25 April 2021**** Oviedo vs Girona at 25 April 2021**** Tenerife vs Castellon at 25 April 2021**** Sabadell vs Mallorca at 26 April 2021**** Vallecano vs Albacete at 26 April 2021**

###
Zaragoza vs Sp Gijon at 23 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zaragoza** and **Sp Gijon** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zaragoza |
2.99 |
2.25 |
11.0 |

Draw |
2.65 |
3.58 |
-9.8 |

Sp Gijon |
2.82 |
3.62 |
-7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.35 |
10.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.35 |
1.74 |
-16.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (11 %, 10.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** at home**.

Zaragoza,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Girona |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Apr |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Mar |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Vallecano |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Sp Gijon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Gijon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Gijon,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Mirandes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Mar |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Mar |
Alcorcon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Zaragoza** is **0.296** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.349.**

The home dynamic for the **Zaragoza** is **0.192** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.081.**

The offensive ability for the **Zaragoza** is **0.167** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Zaragoza** is **0.09** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zaragoza** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Gijon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zaragoza |
25% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Sp Gijon |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Sp Gijon** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.79** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Sp Gijon** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Zaragoza ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.25 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.87 |
3.72 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
7.05 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.63 |
4.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.68 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.53 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
5.77 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.83 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.77 |
3.16 |

####
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###
Espanol vs Las Palmas at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Espanol** and **Las Palmas** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Espanol |
1.48 |
1.75 |
-10.4 |

Draw |
3.98 |
4.08 |
-0.6 |

Las Palmas |
7.60 |
5.49 |
5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.18 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Las Palmas (5.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Espanol** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Espanol** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance** at home**.

Espanol,** at home**, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 80.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Apr |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Apr |
Leganes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Albacete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Apr |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Mar |
Castellon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Logrones |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Las Palmas** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Las Palmas** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance** as a guest**.

Las Palmas,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Oviedo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Mallorca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Apr |
Lugo |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Mar |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Mar |
Girona |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Espanol** is **0.8** and for the **Las Palmas** is **0.095.**

The home dynamic for the **Espanol** is **0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.421.**

The offensive ability for the **Espanol** is **1** and for the **Las Palmas** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Espanol** is **0.09** and for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Espanol** and the red line for guest team, **Las Palmas. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Espanol |
18% |
33% |
26% |
24% |

Las Palmas |
45% |
35% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.78 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **0.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **1.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.88 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.94 |
3.68 |
4.70 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
4.42 |
6.12 |

4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.02 |
5.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.30 |
5.84 |

Un 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.68 |
4.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.98 |
4.72 |

Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.81 |
6.30 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.02 |
5.26 |

Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.12 |
5.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.75 |
5.30 |

No Goal |
1.47 |
6.97 |
5.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.69 |
3.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
6.97 |
4.97 |

####
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###
Malaga vs Fuenlabrada at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Malaga** and **Fuenlabrada** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Malaga |
2.81 |
2.32 |
7.5 |

Draw |
2.84 |
3.55 |
-7.0 |

Fuenlabrada |
2.81 |
3.48 |
-6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.40 |
3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.72 |
-9.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Malaga, Over 2.5 (7.5 %, 3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Malaga** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Malaga** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance** at home**.

Malaga,** at home**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Apr |
Albacete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Lugo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Mar |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Sabadell |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** as a guest**.

Fuenlabrada,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Apr |
Sabadell |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Zaragoza |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Apr |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Mar |
Mallorca |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leganes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Malaga** is **0.2** and for the **Fuenlabrada** is **0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Malaga** is **-0.485** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fuenlabrada** is **0.115.**

The offensive ability for the **Malaga** is **0.631** and for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Malaga** is **-0.167** and for the **Fuenlabrada** is **-0.253.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Malaga** and the red line for guest team, **Fuenlabrada. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Malaga |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Fuenlabrada |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Malaga** to score **1 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Malaga** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.86 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.63 |
3.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.39 |
3.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.97 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.63 |
3.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.13 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.66 |
3.42 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.52 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
5.65 |
3.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.78 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.65 |
3.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ponferradina vs Lugo at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ponferradina** and **Lugo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **24 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ponferradina |
2.06 |
2.02 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.09 |
3.76 |
-5.8 |

Lugo |
3.89 |
4.20 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.21 |
7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.83 |
-12.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (1 %, 7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** at home**.

Ponferradina,** at home**, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Apr |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Girona |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Mar |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Mar |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Sp Gijon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** as a guest**.

Lugo,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Apr |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Mar |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Castellon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Girona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Mar |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ponferradina** is **-0.037** and for the **Lugo** is **-0.857.**

The home dynamic for the **Ponferradina** is **0.303** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lugo** is **-0.455.**

The offensive ability for the **Ponferradina** is **0.571** and for the **Lugo** is **-0.504.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ponferradina** is **-0.571** and for the **Lugo** is **-0.682.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ponferradina** and the red line for guest team, **Lugo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ponferradina |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Lugo |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and the home team **Ponferradina ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Ponferradina ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |