2021 04 23 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassuolo vs Sampdoria at 24 April 2021
Parma vs Crotone at 24 April 2021
Genoa vs Spezia at 24 April 2021
Cagliari vs Roma at 25 April 2021
Inter vs Verona at 25 April 2021
Benevento vs Udinese at 25 April 2021
Atalanta vs Bologna at 25 April 2021
Fiorentina vs Juventus at 25 April 2021
Torino vs Napoli at 26 April 2021
Lazio vs Milan at 26 April 2021


Sassuolo vs Sampdoria at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

2.08

2.62

-9.9

Draw

3.59

3.62

-0.2

Sampdoria

3.52

2.92

5.8

Over 2.5

1.59

2.32

-19.8

Under 2.5

2.37

1.76

14.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 14.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Milan

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Fiorentina

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Apr

Benevento

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Roma

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Torino

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Verona

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N


Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Crotone

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Verona

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Torino

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Bologna

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Sassuolo is 0.259 and for the Sampdoria is 0.31.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is -0.121 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sampdoria is -0.191.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 1 and for the Sampdoria is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -0.597 and for the Sampdoria is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

32%

30%

26%

12%

Sampdoria

44%

11%

34%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.77 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.17 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.99

0-1

3.21

1

5.92

2-3

2.11

2

3.89

4+

4.72

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.21

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.66

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

2.18

8.67

2-3 goals

2.42

13.97

1.94

4+ goals

4.00

2.14

3.53

Ov 1.5

2.76

5.17

2.25

Un 1.5

2.35

2.18

8.67

Ov 2.5

3.19

4.34

2.19

Un 2.5

2.30

3.21

3.92

Ov 3.5

4.00

2.14

3.53

Un 3.5

2.39

4.45

2.80

Goal-Goal

4.59

2.83

2.34

No Goal

2.08

4.36

3.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.17

3.45

2.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

4.36

3.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Parma vs Crotone at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Parma

1.75

2.24

-12.5

Draw

3.87

3.68

1.3

Crotone

4.63

3.56

6.5

Over 2.5

1.67

1.92

-7.8

Under 2.5

2.23

2.09

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Crotone, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 6.5 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Parma in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance at home.
Parma, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 22.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Cagliari

A

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Milan

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Mar

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G


Crotone in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 4.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Sampdoria

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Udinese

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Spezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Napoli

A

3

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Bologna

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Mar

Lazio

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Parma is -0.57 and for the Crotone is -1.
The home dynamic for the Parma is -0.677 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crotone is -1.
The offensive ability for the Parma is 1 and for the Crotone is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Parma is -0.682 and for the Crotone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Parma and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Parma

28%

12%

45%

15%

Crotone

36%

24%

28%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Parma to score 1.91 goals and Crotone to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Parma to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Parma to score 1.47 goals and Crotone to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Parma to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

4.74

1

9.01

2-3

2.01

2

3.75

4+

3.45

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.74

5

10.42

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

3.45

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.02

2.11

3.06

2-3 goals

1.54

17.17

3.43

4+ goals

3.58

2.04

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.61

3.72

Un 1.5

5.02

2.11

3.06

Ov 2.5

2.13

3.67

3.89

Un 2.5

2.37

3.71

3.25

Ov 3.5

3.58

2.04

4.33

Un 3.5

1.94

5.50

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.70

4.61

No Goal

2.09

5.38

2.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

3.04

4.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

5.38

3.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Genoa vs Spezia at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Genoa and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Genoa

2.42

2.48

-1.0

Draw

3.19

3.69

-4.2

Spezia

3.15

3.06

0.9

Over 2.5

1.97

2.19

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.86

1.84

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Genoa in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance at home.
Genoa, at home, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Benevento

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Milan

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Parma

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G


Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Genoa is -0.207 and for the Spezia is -0.103.
The home dynamic for the Genoa is -0.071 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spezia is -0.234.
The offensive ability for the Genoa is 1 and for the Spezia is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Genoa is -1 and for the Spezia is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Genoa and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Genoa

30%

29%

27%

14%

Spezia

41%

18%

31%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.35 goals and Spezia to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.26 goals and Spezia to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.33

0-1

3.44

1

5.85

2-3

2.08

2

3.95

4+

4.39

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.44

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.39

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

2.42

5.60

2-3 goals

2.23

9.25

2.26

4+ goals

3.30

2.33

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.49

4.73

2.59

Un 1.5

2.45

2.42

5.60

Ov 2.5

2.61

4.65

2.49

Un 2.5

2.38

3.16

3.80

Ov 3.5

3.30

2.33

3.74

Un 3.5

2.30

4.49

2.91

Goal-Goal

3.57

2.79

2.77

No Goal

2.03

4.85

3.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.13

3.73

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

4.85

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cagliari vs Roma at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.51

2.70

-2.8

Draw

3.80

3.76

0.3

Roma

2.61

2.75

-2.0

Over 2.5

1.64

2.06

-12.4

Under 2.5

2.30

1.94

8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cagliari in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance at home.
Cagliari, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Parma

H

4

3

W

O

G

11 Apr

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Verona

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N


Roma in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Apr

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Torino

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Sassuolo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Parma

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Mar

Genoa

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Fiorentina

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Cagliari is -0.237 and for the Roma is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Cagliari is -0.697 and the dynamic as a guest for the Roma is -0.055.
The offensive ability for the Cagliari is 0.227 and for the Roma is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cagliari is -0.545 and for the Roma is -0.597.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

28%

34%

22%

15%

Roma

31%

29%

25%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.47 goals and Roma to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.25 goals and Roma to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.62

1

5.29

2-3

2.09

2

4.18

4+

4.08

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.62

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.98