2021 04 23 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pordenone vs Pisa at 24 April 2021


Pordenone vs Pisa at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pordenone

2.88

2.32

8.4

Draw

2.87

3.70

-7.8

Pisa

2.70

3.34

-7.1

Over 2.5

2.35

2.15

4.0

Under 2.5

1.60

1.87

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pordenone in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had 4 wins, 9 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Frosinone

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Virtus Entella

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Brescia

A

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N


Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cosenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Chievo

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Lecce

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Pescara

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Mar

Spal

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Reggina

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Pordenone is -0.126 and for the Pisa is -0.262.
The home dynamic for the Pordenone is -0.222 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pisa is -0.013.
The offensive ability for the Pordenone is 0.339 and for the Pisa is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pordenone is 0.176 and for the Pisa is -0.202.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pordenone

25%

31%

31%

13%

Pisa

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.06 goals and Pisa to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.32 goals and Pisa to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.69

1

5.24

2-3

1.96

2

3.79

4+

4.57

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.69

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.39

2.95

2-3 goals

1.98

4.43

3.70

4+ goals

2.92

2.88

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.20

3.82

3.54

Un 1.5

2.74

3.39

2.95

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.12

2.96

Un 2.5

2.69

2.74

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.92

2.88

3.22

Un 3.5

2.19

4.01

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.67

3.95

No Goal

2.03

6.12

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.20

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.12

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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