2021 04 23 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Atromitos vs Lamia at 24 April 2021
Giannina vs Panetolikos at 24 April 2021
Larisa vs OFI Crete at 24 April 2021
PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 25 April 2021
Apollon vs Volos NFC at 26 April 2021


Atromitos vs Lamia at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.63

1.80

-5.8

Draw

3.70

3.80

-0.7

Lamia

5.47

5.56

-0.3

Over 2.5

2.17

2.58

-7.3

Under 2.5

1.68

1.63

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

OFI Crete

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Larisa

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Apollon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G


Lamia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Apr

Larisa

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Giannina

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Panetolikos

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Atromitos is -0.348 and for the Lamia is 0.587.
The home dynamic for the Atromitos is -0.111 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lamia is -0.37.
The offensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.142 and for the Lamia is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.657 and for the Lamia is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

21%

36%

23%

20%

Lamia

49%

34%

14%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.61 goals and Lamia to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.41 goals and Lamia to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.86

1

4.07

2-3

2.02

2

3.82

4+

6.45

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.86

5

27.78

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.49

Ov 3.5

6.45

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

3.37

4.93

2-3 goals

1.72

4.12

5.63

4+ goals

1.63

3.97

7.38

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.09

5.96

Un 1.5

2.00

3.37

4.93

Ov 2.5

1.44

9.95

4.91

Un 2.5

2.13

2.73

6.06

Ov 3.5

1.63

3.97

7.38

Un 3.5

1.83

3.77

5.31

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.53

5.66

No Goal

1.55

5.75

5.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

7.23

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

5.75

4.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Giannina vs Panetolikos at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giannina and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Giannina

1.93

1.93

0.0

Draw

3.27

3.53

-2.3

Panetolikos

4.09

5.05

-4.6

Over 2.5

2.44

2.72

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.53

1.58

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Giannina in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance at home.
Giannina, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Apr

Lamia

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

OFI Crete

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Atromitos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N


Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Volos NFC

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Lamia

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Volos NFC

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Giannina is 0.089 and for the Panetolikos is -0.103.
The home dynamic for the Giannina is -0.515 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panetolikos is -0.804.
The offensive ability for the Giannina is 1 and for the Panetolikos is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Giannina is 0.03 and for the Panetolikos is -0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Giannina and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Giannina

27%

35%

15%

22%

Panetolikos

50%

34%

11%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.32 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.33 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.30

0-1

2.47

1

3.73

2-3

2.26

2

4.42

4+

6.54

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.47

5

31.25

Ov 2.5

2.70

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.58

Gg

2.75

Ov 3.5

6.54

NoG

1.57

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

2.96

4.40

2-3 goals

1.83

3.72

5.40

4+ goals

1.51

5.46

6.38

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.05

5.62

Un 1.5

2.30

2.96

4.40

Ov 2.5

1.39

13.21

4.87

Un 2.5

2.49

2.46

5.17

Ov 3.5

1.51

5.46

6.38

Un 3.5

2.03

3.31

4.87

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.47

5.76

No Goal

1.74

4.66

4.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

8.71

3.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

4.66

4.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Larisa vs OFI Crete at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Larisa

2.60

3.31

-8.3

Draw

2.99

3.17

-1.9

OFI Crete

2.91

2.61

3.9

Over 2.5

2.40

3.33

-11.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.43

6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at OFI Crete, Under 2.5 (3.9 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Larisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Apr

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Atromitos

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Panetolikos

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Apollon

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Mar

Lamia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

OFI Crete

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N


OFI Crete in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Atromitos

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Apollon

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Volos NFC

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Larisa

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Larisa is 0.059 and for the OFI Crete is -0.048.
The home dynamic for the Larisa is -0.646 and the dynamic as a guest for the OFI Crete is -0.66.
The offensive ability for the Larisa is 0.545 and for the OFI Crete is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Larisa is 0.262 and for the OFI Crete is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Larisa

40%

37%

17%

6%

OFI Crete

36%

33%

25%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.11 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 0.87 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.90

0-1

2.42

1

3.72

2-3

2.09

2

3.50

4+

9.17

3

5.21

Ov 1.5

1.70

4

12.20

Un 1.5

2.42

5

41.67

Ov 2.5

3.32

6+

333.33

Un 2.5

1.43

Gg

2.61

Ov 3.5

9.17

NoG

1.62

Un 3.5

1.12

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

2.86

3.07

2-3 goals

3.51

3.82

2.20

4+ goals

3.30

2.42

3.52

Ov 1.5

3.47

3.45

2.37

Un 1.5

3.09

2.86

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.76

6.69

2.05

Un 2.5

3.61

2.59

2.97

Ov 3.5

3.30

2.42

3.52

Un 3.5

3.30

3.30

2.53

Goal-Goal

4.30

2.25

3.09

No Goal

2.89

4.26

2.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.90

5.73

2.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.96

4.26

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 25 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 25 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.63

2.19

-15.7

Draw

3.72

3.61

0.8

Panathinaikos

5.38

3.76

8.0

Over 2.5

2.29

2.53

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.64

1.66

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panathinaikos (0.8 %, 8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 35 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Olympiakos

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Panathinaikos

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

AEK

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Panathinaikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Aris

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

2

L

O

G


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Aris

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Olympiakos

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

PAOK

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Mar

PAOK

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

AEK

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the PAOK is 0.237 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.008.
The home dynamic for the PAOK is 0.778 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panathinaikos is 0.115.
The offensive ability for the PAOK is 0.631 and for the Panathinaikos is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the PAOK is -0.116 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.631.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

35%

25%

19%

21%

Panathinaikos

42%

33%

21%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.56 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.27 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.80

0-1

2.72

1

4.52

2-3

2.20

2

4.24

4+

5.59

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.72

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.52

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.65

Ov 3.5

5.59

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals