2021 04 24 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Strasbourg vs Roanne at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Strasbourg vs Roanne at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Roanne for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Strasbourg

1.32

1.42

Roanne

3.5

3.39

Strasbourg HC

-7.5

-6.00

Roanne HC

+7.5

6.00

Point Line

162.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Strasbourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 20

A

Limoges

W

81

68

13

5

W 3

83

74

Apr 17

A

Cholet

W

97

90

12

5

W 2

95

90

Apr 13

H

Nanterre

W

86

81

11

5

W 1

85

80

Apr 10

A

Elan Bearnais

L

69

73

10

5

L 1

64

74

Mar 27

H

Dijon

W

84

78

10

4

W 7

92

78

Mar 18

A

BCM Gravelines

W

81

78

9

4

W 6

81

83

Mar 13

H

Elan Chalon

W

96

92

8

4

W 5

92

94

Feb 6

A

Paris Levallois

W

71

63

7

4

W 4

77

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 20

H

Chalons-Reims

W

98

83

9

11

W 1

91

83

Apr 16

A

Le Portel

L

77

79

8

11

L 2

76

86

Apr 13

H

Elan Bearnais

L

72

80

8

10

L 1

67

81

Apr 9

H

Le Mans

W

90

72

8

9

W 5

88

66

Apr 3

A

Limoges

W

86

62

7

9

W 4

88

68

Mar 27

H

JL Bourg

W

102

97

6

9

W 3

103

90

Mar 20

A

Elan Bearnais

W

81

60

5

9

W 2

75

61

Mar 16

A

Nanterre

W

79

74

4

9

W 1

78

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Strasbourg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Strasbourg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Strasbourg (in the first graph) and by Roanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Strasbourg will expected to score 82 points and the Roanne 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Strasbourg

Roanne

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

18.40

16.50

DRB

20.80

19.70

AST-TO

1.26

1.16

TRB

31.00

28.40

FTM

15.10

14.50

BL

2.80

2.70

FTA

18.80

20.80

PF-Fewer

22.30

19.80

ST

8.90

8.80

TO-Fewer

14.60

14.20

Ftper

0.80

0.70

ORBper

0.49

0.44

ORB

10.20

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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