2021 04 24 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs Panathinaikos at 24 April 2021
Peristeri vs Larissa BC at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Promitheas vs Panathinaikos at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

4

3.41

Panathinaikos

1.03

1.42

Promitheas HC

+16.5

6.00

Panathinaikos HC

-16.5

-6.00

Point Line

166.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 14

H

AEK Athens

W

80

78

15

5

W 6

84

73

Apr 11

H

Messolonghi

W

84

68

14

5

W 5

79

72

Apr 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

84

79

13

5

W 4

85

78

Apr 4

A

Peristeri

W

73

70

12

5

W 3

75

74

Mar 31

H

Aris

W

90

69

11

5

W 2

90

72

Mar 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

82

72

10

5

W 1

78

72

Mar 6

A

P.A.O.K.

L

78

81

9

5

L 1

76

79

Feb 6

H

Larisa

W

81

63

9

4

W 3

78

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 20

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

66

18

2

W 8

97

69

Apr 18

A

P.A.O.K.

W

74

68

17

2

W 7

72

66

Apr 10

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

105

69

16

2

W 6

105

64

Mar 27

H

Messolonghi

W

102

68

15

2

W 5

96

72

Mar 22

A

Peristeri

W

74

68

14

2

W 4

76

72

Mar 13

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

98

74

13

2

W 3

93

74

Mar 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

95

82

12

2

W 2

96

81

Feb 28

H

Aris

W

94

72

11

2

W 1

94

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 76 points and the Panathinaikos 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.53

0.61

ASS

17.50

21.00

DRB

22.60

25.60

AST-TO

1.42

1.53

TRB

28.00

34.80

FTM

14.00

14.00

BL

3.40

3.20

FTA

19.80

18.40

PF-Fewer

18.20

20.40

ST

6.50

7.50

TO-Fewer

12.30

13.70

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.24

0.36

ORB

5.40

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Peristeri vs Larissa BC at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

1.29

1.52

Larissa BC

3.5

2.94

Peristeri HC

-7.5

-5.00

Larissa BC HC

+7.5

5.00

Point Line

151.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

A

P.A.O.K.

L

66

85

9

11

L 2

64

83

Apr 4

H

Promitheas Patras

L

70

73

9

10

L 1

71

79

Mar 28

A

Larisa

W

98

78

9

9

W 1

94

80

Mar 22

H

Panathinaikos

L

68

74

8

9

L 3

74

63

Mar 14

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

88

8

8

L 2

71

82

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

8

7

L 1

68

83

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

8

6

W 1

66

67

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

7

6

L 1

62

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

80

76

6

14

W 1

78

80

Apr 3

A

Messolonghi

L

77

79

5

14

L 3

73

84

Mar 28

H

Peristeri

L

78

98

5

13

L 2

80

104

Mar 21

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

83

5

12

L 1

72

83

Mar 14

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

73

5

11

W 1

83

72

Mar 6

A

Aris

L

52

70

4

11

L 3

52

73

Feb 28

H

P.A.O.K.

L

88

91

4

10

L 2

86

89

Feb 6

A

Promitheas Patras

L

63

81

4

9

L 1

64

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 77 points and the Larissa BC 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Peristeri

Larissa BC

FG%

0.50

0.53

ASS

17.10

14.60

DRB

24.60

22.50

AST-TO

1.24

0.96

TRB

33.30

31.50

FTM

14.90

14.40

BL

2.30

2.00

FTA

19.60

18.80

PF-Fewer

20.90

22.00

ST

5.90

6.40

TO-Fewer

13.80

15.20

Ftper

0.76

0.77

ORBper

0.35

0.40

ORB

8.70

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *