2021 04 24 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vanoli Cremona vs Brescia at 25 April 2021
Varese vs Trieste at 25 April 2021
Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Olimpia Milano at 25 April 2021
Aquila Basket Trento vs Brindisi at 25 April 2021
Fortitudo Bologna vs Cantu at 25 April 2021
Dinamo Sassari vs Reggiana at 25 April 2021
Reyer Venezia vs Universo Treviso at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Vanoli Cremona vs Brescia at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vanoli Cremona and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Vanoli Cremona

1.65

1.42

Brescia

2.3

3.40

Vanoli Cremona HC

-2.5

-6.00

Brescia HC

+2.5

6.00

Point Line

170.5

167.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Enel Brindisi

W

78

67

11

15

W 3

82

63

Apr 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

74

10

15

W 2

82

77

Apr 3

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

90

71

9

15

W 1

91

75

Mar 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

84

95

8

15

L 3

81

84

Mar 21

H

Universo Treviso

L

85

86

8

14

L 2

78

82

Mar 14

A

Red October Cantu

L

85

92

8

13

L 1

85

95

Mar 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

78

8

12

W 2

99

78

Feb 28

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

95

87

7

12

W 1

98

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

94

9

18

L 7

79

84

Apr 14

H

Red October Cantu

L

69

74

9

17

L 6

69

76

Apr 11

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

87

94

9

16

L 5

92

93

Apr 3

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

78

88

9

15

L 4

78

91

Mar 28

H

Enel Brindisi

L

68

74

9

14

L 3

72

70

Mar 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

67

91

9

13

L 2

69

94

Mar 14

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

92

99

9

12

L 1

100

93

Feb 28

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

79

9

11

W 3

90

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Vanoli Cremona (in the first graph) and by Brescia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Vanoli Cremona will expected to score 85 points and the Brescia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Vanoli Cremona

Brescia

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

17.50

18.50

DRB

25.80

23.30

AST-TO

1.56

1.50

TRB

34.10

31.60

FTM

15.20

12.70

BL

2.70

1.70

FTA

19.80

15.10

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.10

ST

6.50

7.50

TO-Fewer

11.20

12.30

Ftper

0.77

0.84

ORBper

0.32

0.36

ORB

8.30

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Varese vs Trieste at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Varese and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Varese

1.72

2.18

Trieste

2.18

1.85

Varese HC

-2.5

2.00

Trieste HC

+2.5

-2.00

Point Line

166.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Varese are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Universo Treviso

W

103

94

11

16

W 1

95

89

Apr 14

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

75

77

10

16

L 2

80

76

Apr 11

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

77

95

10

15

L 1

78

100

Apr 5

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

83

81

10

14

W 4

90

76

Mar 28

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

88

70

9

14

W 3

90

73

Mar 14

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

81

68

8

14

W 2

80

68

Mar 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

89

74

7

14

W 1

86

66

Feb 27

A

Virtus Bologna

L

76

85

6

14

L 3

81

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

101

88

12

14

W 1

100

88

Apr 14

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

69

81

11

14

L 4

71

84

Apr 11

A

Virtus Bologna

L

67

81

11

13

L 3

71

76

Mar 28

A

Universo Treviso

L

76

95

11

12

L 2

70

90

Mar 21

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

69

87

11

11

L 1

73

86

Mar 13

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

96

70

11

10

W 2

97

74

Mar 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

82

79

10

10

W 1

82

82

Feb 27

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

81

9

10

L 2

78

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Varese and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Varese.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Varese (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Varese will expected to score 80 points and the Trieste 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Varese

Trieste

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

15.40

18.10

DRB

25.30

25.50

AST-TO

1.24

1.37

TRB

34.50

33.30

FTM

15.00

10.80

BL

1.90

2.30

FTA

20.00

15.70

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.10

ST

5.40

7.20

TO-Fewer

12.40

13.20

Ftper

0.75

0.69

ORBper

0.37

0.30

ORB

9.30

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Olimpia Milano at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Victoria Libertas Pesaro and Olimpia Milano for Serie A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

3.7

5.30

Olimpia Milano

1.3

1.23

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+7.5

8.50

Olimpia Milano HC

-7.5

-8.50

Point Line

156.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

88

101

11

16

L 2

89

102

Apr 14

H

Enel Brindisi

L

62

86

11

15

L 1

66

81

Apr 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

79

77

11

14

W 1

79

80

Apr 3

H

Universo Treviso

L

89

97

10

14

L 5

82

92

Mar 29

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

79

91

10

13

L 4

80

96

Mar 20

H

Virtus Bologna

L

70

75

10

12

L 3

74

70

Mar 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

68

81

10

11

L 2

65

80

Mar 7

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

78

100

10

10

L 1

74

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

H

Virtus Bologna

W

94

84

21

6

W 2

100

79

Apr 14

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

85

73

20

6

W 1

82

65

Apr 11

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

80

19

6

L 3

75

76

Apr 5

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

81

83

19

5

L 2

77

82

Mar 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

63

69

19

4

L 1

67

68

Mar 21

H

Red October Cantu

W

70

57

19

3

W 2

70

59

Mar 14

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

99

92

18

3

W 1

96

92

Mar 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

60

61

17

3

L 1

62

63

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Victoria Libertas Pesaro will expected to score 78 points and the Olimpia Milano 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

16.00

18.10

DRB

23.00

24.00

AST-TO

1.45

1.66

TRB

33.00

31.50

FTM

13.70

15.20

BL

1.10

2.90

FTA

17.90

18.30

PF-Fewer

21.00

18.50

ST

6.60

7.40

TO-Fewer

11.00

10.90

Ftper

0.76

0.83

ORBper

0.43

0.31

ORB

10.00

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aquila Basket Trento vs Brindisi at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Brindisi for Serie A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

2.2

7.59

Brindisi

1.7

1.15

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+2.5

10.00

Brindisi HC

-2.5

-10.00

Point Line

156.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

76

94

11

15

L 1

73

84

Apr 14

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

69

11

14

W 3

82

69

Apr 11

A

Red October Cantu

W

76

75

10

14

W 2

76

78

Apr 3

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

90

84

9

14

W 1

96

83

Mar 28

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

70

88

8

14

L 1

67

87

Mar 20

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

91

67

8

13

W 2

88

67

Mar 7

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

61

60

7

13

W 1

66

56

Feb 28

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

87

95

6

13

L 8

83

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

78

20

6

L 1

64

74

Apr 14

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

86

62

20

5

W 8

85

62

Apr 11

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

80

71

19

5

W 7

87

66

Apr 3

A

Red October Cantu

W

93

71

18

5

W 6

93

73

Mar 28

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

74

68

17

5

W 5

72

68

Mar 13

H

Virtus Bologna

W

91

85

16

5

W 4

96

80

Mar 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

95

70

15

5

W 3

95

73

Feb 27

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

74

14

5

W 2

82

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Brindisi in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 77 points and the Brindisi 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Brindisi

FG%

0.50

0.53

ASS

15.40

16.10

DRB

22.70

26.30

AST-TO

1.32

1.45

TRB

31.40

35.90

FTM

11.80

16.70

BL

2.00

2.40

FTA

16.50

22.10

PF-Fewer

19.70

17.90

ST

8.20

6.40

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.10

Ftper

0.72

0.75

ORBper

0.38

0.37

ORB

8.70

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fortitudo Bologna vs Cantu at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Cantu for Serie A, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

1.47

2.18

Cantu

2.75

1.85

Fortitudo Bologna HC

-4.5

2.00

Cantu HC

+4.5

-2.00

Point Line

153.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

76

92

9

18

L 3

81

91

Apr 14

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

74

82

9

17

L 2

70

77

Apr 10

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

77

79

9

16

L 1

76

79

Apr 3

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

88

78

9

15

W 1