2021 04 24 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Joventut Badalona vs Tenerife at 24 April 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Murcia at 24 April 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Zaragoza at 24 April 2021
Manresa vs Estudiantes at 24 April 2021
Gran Canaria vs San Pablo Burgos at 25 April 2021
Valencia vs Bilbao at 25 April 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Real Madrid at 25 April 2021
Real Betis vs Obradoiro at 25 April 2021
Andorra vs Barcelona at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Joventut Badalona vs Tenerife at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

2.35

1.29

Tenerife

1.62

4.43

Joventut Badalona HC

+3.5

-7.50

Tenerife HC

-3.5

7.50

Point Line

172.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Real Madrid

L

92

101

16

14

L 3

100

96

Apr 16

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

86

16

13

L 2

78

81

Apr 11

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

84

103

16

12

L 1

83

105

Apr 4

A

Valencia Basket

W

102

89

16

11

W 1

104

86

Mar 28

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

78

88

15

11

L 1

77

93

Mar 17

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

83

15

10

W 3

85

84

Mar 13

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

84

14

10

W 2

88

86

Mar 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

100

95

13

10

W 1

93

95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

86

67

25

6

W 2

81

70

Apr 18

H

Unicaja

W

79

61

24

6

W 1

79

60

Apr 13

A

Real Madrid

L

76

84

23

6

L 1

82

80

Apr 11

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

101

77

23

5

W 6

95

78

Apr 8

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

98

86

22

5

W 5

98

81

Apr 3

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

93

82

21

5

W 4

92

87

Mar 28

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

86

20

5

W 3

92

83

Mar 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

78

19

5

W 2

85

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 82 points and the Tenerife 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Tenerife

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

16.10

16.10

DRB

19.40

19.40

AST-TO

1.38

1.26

TRB

28.10

28.40

FTM

14.10

12.70

BL

2.50

2.20

FTA

17.80

16.90

PF-Fewer

20.80

21.30

ST

7.80

6.60

TO-Fewer

11.70

12.80

Ftper

0.80

0.75

ORBper

0.44

0.47

ORB

8.60

9.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gipuzkoa vs Murcia at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

2.77

3.14

Murcia

1.47

1.47

Gipuzkoa HC

+4.5

5.50

Murcia HC

-4.5

-5.50

Point Line

164.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

71

99

7

23

L 1

66

99

Apr 14

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

90

79

7

22

W 1

90

74

Apr 10

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

68

91

6

22

L 4

68

96

Apr 4

A

Real Madrid

L

71

97

6

21

L 3

77

92

Mar 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

66

79

6

20

L 2

64

81

Mar 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

81

90

6

19

L 1

80

92

Mar 14

H

Valencia Basket

W

78

60

6

18

W 1

80

58

Mar 6

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

74

78

5

18

L 2

74

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

84

55

12

17

W 3

83

58

Apr 11

H

Baskonia

W

92

87

11

17

W 2

96

86

Apr 4

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

85

75

10

17

W 1

80

76

Mar 28

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

82

90

9

17

L 1

78

93

Mar 24

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

82

70

9

16

W 1

82

72

Mar 20

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

78

85

8

16

L 8

82

79

Mar 7

H

Real Madrid

L

58

74

8

15

L 7

63

70

Feb 27

A

Manresa

L

84

85

8

14

L 6

81

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 78 points and the Murcia 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Murcia

FG%

0.48

0.53

ASS

13.50

14.60

DRB

20.30

22.20

AST-TO

0.99

0.99

TRB

30.00

31.50

FTM

10.10

18.30

BL

1.90

2.60

FTA

14.30

23.90

PF-Fewer

20.20

20.50

ST

8.10

6.00

TO-Fewer

13.70

14.80

Ftper

0.70

0.77

ORBper

0.48

0.42

ORB

9.70

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Zaragoza at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.37

2.02

Zaragoza

3.25

1.98

Unicaja Malaga HC

-5.5

1.00

Zaragoza HC

+5.5

-1.00

Point Line

172.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

61

79

14

15

L 1

64

73

Apr 15

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

88

74

14

14

W 1

83

77

Mar 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

93

101

13

14

L 1

93

95

Mar 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

85

83

13

13

W 1

82

86

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

61

74

Mar 13

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

82

76

12

12

W 3

81

78

Feb 27

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

77

11

12

W 2

86

78

Feb 7

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

68

10

12

W 1

84

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

98

95

12

19

W 2

98

89

Apr 18

H

Acunsa GBC

W

99

71

11

19

W 1

94

78

Apr 15

A

Manresa

L

82

92

10

19

L 6

79

90

Apr 11

H

Valencia Basket

L

76

85

10

18

L 5

78

82

Apr 3

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

76

84

10

17

L 4

75

86

Mar 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

104

113

10

16

L 3

98

114

Mar 13

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

88

107

10

15

L 2

98

100

Mar 6

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

95

100

10

14

L 1

92

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 86 points and the Zaragoza 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

Zaragoza

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

16.70

16.10

DRB

23.10

23.50

AST-TO

1.18

1.22

TRB

32.90

30.60

FTM

14.60

15.30

BL

2.20

2.70

FTA

18.50

20.50

PF-Fewer

18.90

20.60

ST

6.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.20

Ftper

0.79

0.75

ORBper

0.42

0.31

ORB

9.70

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Estudiantes at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Estudiantes for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

1.4

1.71

Estudiantes

3.05

2.40

Manresa HC

-5.5

-3.00

Estudiantes HC

+5.5

3.00

Point Line

175.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

89

97

14

17

L 1

99

91

Apr 15

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

92

82

14

16

W 1

85

82

Apr 10

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

87

90

13

16

L 1

84

93

Apr 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

108

96

13

15

W 1

102

100

Mar 27

H

Real Madrid

L

76

77

12

15

L 2

82

73

Mar 21

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

86

92

12

14

L 1

90

97

Mar 14

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

76

12

13

W 1

90

78

Mar 7

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

112

11

13

L 1

84

108

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

82

96

9

22

L 4

81

102

Apr 15

A

Baskonia

L

92

96

9

21

L 3

96

95

Apr 11

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

77

101

9

20

L 2

81

94

Apr 4

H

UCAM Murcia

L

75

85

9

19

L 1

75

86

Mar 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

97

85

9

18

W 1

102

90

Mar 23

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

98

8

18

L 1

75

92

Mar 20

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

113

104

8

17

W 1

105

104

Mar 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

90

7

17

L 1

80

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Estudiantes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 86 points and the Estudiantes 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Estudiantes

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

15.80

15.40

DRB

21.80

21.90

AST-TO

1.12

1.27

TRB

30.00

32.10

FTM

17.60

11.20

BL

3.50

3.10

FTA

23.00

15.30

PF-Fewer

21.00

22.90

ST

8.60

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.10

Ftper

0.77

0.73

ORBper

0.38

0.47

ORB

8.20

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gran Canaria vs San Pablo Burgos at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gran Canaria

2.05

3.21

San Pablo Burgos

1.8

1.45

Gran Canaria HC

+1.5

5.50

San Pablo Burgos HC

-1.5

-5.50

Point Line

168.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

88

89

13

17

L 2

85

92

Apr 14

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

92

13

16

L 1

82

86

Apr 11

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

103

84

13

15

W 4

99

82

Apr 3

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

84

76

12

15