2021 04 24 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Buyukcekmece vs Gaziantep at 24 April 2021
Bursaspor vs OGM Ormanspor at 24 April 2021
Turk Telekom vs Tofas at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Buyukcekmece vs Gaziantep at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buyukcekmece and Gaziantep for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buyukcekmece

3.2

3.73

Gaziantep

1.33

1.37

Buyukcekmece HC

+6.5

6.50

Gaziantep HC

-6.5

-6.50

Point Line

154.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

H

Besiktas

L

89

104

10

19

L 2

89

99

Apr 17

A

Fethiye

L

70

83

10

18

L 1

65

88

Apr 3

A

Ormanspor

W

85

74

10

17

W 2

78

80

Mar 28

H

Galatasaray

W

105

101

9

17

W 1

99

98

Mar 21

A

Fenerbahce

L

70

81

8

17

L 3

75

75

Mar 14

H

Bursaspor

L

68

73

8

16

L 2

66

76

Mar 6

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

82

117

8

15

L 1

86

113

Feb 28

H

Afyon

W

95

83

8

14

W 1

90

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 11

A

Turk Telekom

L

66

84

13

15

L 3

66

89

Apr 3

H

Darussafaka

L

76

82

13

14

L 2

78

80

Mar 27

A

Tofas

L

72

84

13

13

L 1

72

79

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1

76

66

Mar 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

63

102

12

12

L 1

68

92

Mar 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

60

12

11

W 1

84

64

Feb 28

H

Besiktas

L

77

84

11

11

L 1

77

80

Feb 11

A

Ormanspor

W

82

81

11

10

W 4

76

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buyukcekmece (in the first graph) and by Gaziantep in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buyukcekmece will expected to score 78 points and the Gaziantep 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buyukcekmece

Gaziantep

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

18.20

20.10

DRB

22.70

23.80

AST-TO

1.49

1.73

TRB

31.80

33.10

FTM

14.00

12.40

BL

1.90

2.50

FTA

17.90

18.10

PF-Fewer

20.50

20.60

ST

6.20

6.80

TO-Fewer

12.20

11.60

Ftper

0.79

0.68

ORBper

0.40

0.39

ORB

9.10

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bursaspor vs OGM Ormanspor at 24 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and OGM Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 24 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bursaspor

1.26

1.69

OGM Ormanspor

3.75

2.45

Bursaspor HC

-7.5

-3.50

OGM Ormanspor HC

+7.5

3.50

Point Line

164.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

A

Galatasaray

L

93

106

12

17

L 1

88

103

Apr 11

H

Fenerbahce

W

82

77

12

16

W 1

88

71

Apr 4

H

Anadolu Efes

L

76

95

11

16

L 1

82

86

Mar 27

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

85

84

11

15

W 4

90

81

Mar 21

H

Afyon

W

81

75

10

15

W 3

77

75

Mar 14

A

Buyukcekmece

W

73

68

9

15

W 2

69

69

Mar 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

67

64

8

15

W 1

67

64

Feb 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

82

83

7

15

L 3

82

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of OGM Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 3

H

Buyukcekmece

L

74

85

6

21

L 4

70

86

Mar 27

A

Bahcesehir

L

65

92

6

20

L 3

65

92

Mar 20

H

Turk Telekom

L

90

97

6

19

L 2

90

103

Mar 13

A

Darussafaka

L

68

90

6

18

L 1

70

88

Mar 6

H

Tofas

W

77

76

6

17

W 1

77

71

Feb 27

A

Socar Spor

L

76

83

5

17

L 7

76

85

Feb 11

H

Gaziantep

L

81

82

5

16

L 6

87

89

Feb 7

A

Fethiye

L

89

98

5

15

L 5

83

104

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by OGM Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by OGM Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by OGM Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 83 points and the OGM Ormanspor 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bursaspor

OGM Ormanspor

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

19.20

17.60

DRB

20.80

20.10

AST-TO

1.64

1.56

TRB

28.70

27.60

FTM

11.90

14.50

BL

2.30

2.50

FTA

16.10

19.60

PF-Fewer

21.70

16.10

ST

6.20

4.60

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.30

Ftper

0.74

0.74

ORBper

0.38

0.37

ORB

8.00

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Turk Telekom vs Tofas at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Tofas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Turk Telekom

1.6

2.95

Tofas

2.3

1.51

Turk Telekom HC

-3.5

5.00

Tofas HC

+3.5

-5.00

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

A

Socar Spor

W

71

65

17

12

W 2

71

67

Apr 11

H

Gaziantep

W

84

66

16

12

W 1

91

71

Apr 3

A

Fethiye

L

81

82

15

12

L 2

76

87

Mar 28

H

Besiktas

L

85

94

15

11

L 1

85

90

Mar 20

A

Ormanspor

W

97

90

15

10

W 2

90

97

Mar 14

H

Galatasaray

W

81

77

14

10

W 1

77

75

Mar 7

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

99

13

10

L 1

83

92

Feb 27

H

Bursaspor

W

83

82

13

9

W 1

81

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

Darussafaka

W

101

89

18

11

W 2

104

87

Apr 15

A

Socar Spor

W

83

62

17

11

W 1

83

64

Apr 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

87

16

11

L 1

92

79

Mar 27

H

Gaziantep

W

84

72

16

10

W 3

91

78

Mar 20

A

Fethiye

W

101

76

15

10

W 2

94

81

Mar 13

H

Besiktas

W

89

86

14

10

W 1

89

82

Mar 6

A

Ormanspor

L

76

77

13

10

L 1

70

83

Feb 27

H

Galatasaray

W

98

89

13

9

W 3

93

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Turk Telekom (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Turk Telekom will expected to score 82 points and the Tofas 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Turk Telekom

Tofas

FG%

0.54

0.57

ASS

17.60

21.80

DRB

21.40

21.70

AST-TO

1.76

1.85

TRB

28.30

30.30

FTM

13.40

12.70

BL

1.30

2.60

FTA

17.70

16.80

PF-Fewer

17.80

20.70

ST

5.20

8.50

TO-Fewer

10.00

11.80

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.32

0.40

ORB

6.90

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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