2021 04 24 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 25 April 2021
Khimki vs Avtodor at 25 April 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod at 25 April 2021
Enisey vs BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn at 25 April 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Lokomotiv Kuban for VTB United League, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

3.05

3.18

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.37

1.46

Unics HC

+5.5

5.50

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-5.5

-5.50

Point Line

167.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 20

H

Parma

W

69

51

17

5

W 2

71

53

Apr 17

A

Astana

W

87

74

16

5

W 1

82

79

Mar 27

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

102

15

5

L 1

91

89

Mar 13

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

76

49

15

4

W 10

72

51

Feb 27

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

87

56

14

4

W 9

90

58

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

67

57

Feb 7

A

Avtodor

W

110

97

12

4

W 7

103

95

Jan 30

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

76

66

11

4

W 6

72

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

H

CSKA Moscow

W

103

94

16

6

W 8

109

82

Apr 12

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

75

15

6

W 7

96

85

Apr 3

H

Astana

W

90

84

14

6

W 6

85

90

Mar 28

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

105

94

13

6

W 5

100

98

Mar 18

H

Parma

W

85

68

12

6

W 4

87

71

Mar 13

H

Avtodor

W

104

89

11

6

W 3

98

87

Feb 27

H

Enisey

W

100

98

10

6

W 2

94

104

Feb 8

A

BC Khimki

W

92

90

9

6

W 1

93

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 83 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.55

0.56

ASS

16.00

21.90

DRB

21.10

24.80

AST-TO

1.37

1.81

TRB

30.40

33.70

FTM

13.80

17.00

BL

1.70

3.60

FTA

18.00

22.30

PF-Fewer

21.70

20.20

ST

8.50

6.70

TO-Fewer

11.70

12.10

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.44

0.36

ORB

9.30

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Avtodor at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

1.35

1.31

Avtodor

3.1

4.18

Khimki HC

-6.5

-7.50

Avtodor HC

+6.5

7.50

Point Line

171.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

81

65

12

11

W 1

77

74

Apr 17

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

84

91

11

11

L 2

80

95

Apr 14

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

64

69

11

10

L 1

66

71

Apr 12

H

Enisey

W

89

83

11

9

W 3

84

88

Mar 28

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

89

65

10

9

W 2

85

74

Mar 22

A

Zielona Gora

W

89

70

9

9

W 1

84

66

Mar 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

92

8

9

L 1

77

80

Mar 8

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

81

78

8

8

W 1

91

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

A

Parma

W

100

93

9

14

W 1

102

97

Apr 9

A

Enisey

L

85

86

8

14

L 5

80

91

Apr 3

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

93

99

8

13

L 4

96

102

Mar 23

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

62

89

8

12

L 3

70

87

Mar 13

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

89

104

8

11

L 2

86

92

Mar 7

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

77

85

8

10

L 1

74

89

Feb 28

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

113

66

8

9

W 1

108

75

Feb 11

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

80

86

7

9

L 2

82

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 86 points and the Avtodor 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Avtodor

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

19.70

17.10

DRB

22.00

22.80

AST-TO

1.66

1.34

TRB

31.00

31.40

FTM

16.40

15.80

BL

3.50

2.40

FTA

20.70

20.70

PF-Fewer

22.30

20.60

ST

7.10

5.80

TO-Fewer

11.90

12.80

Ftper

0.79

0.76

ORBper

0.41

0.38

ORB

9.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod for VTB United League, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.04

1.07

Nizhny Novgorod

9.75

14.73

CSKA Moscow HC

-16.5

-11.50

Nizhny Novgorod HC

+16.5

11.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

94

103

16

7

L 1

91

91

Apr 11

H

Astana

W

100

77

16

6

W 1

94

82

Apr 5

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

77

81

15

6

L 1

87

79

Mar 27

H

UNICS

W

102

86

15

5

W 4

113

86

Mar 22

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

94

72

14

5

W 3

90

75

Mar 15

H

BC Khimki

W

92

73

13

5

W 2

93

71

Mar 7

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

67

12

5

W 1

96

76

Feb 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

74

11

5

L 1

80

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

84

86

14

9

L 2

80

90

Apr 17

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

62

70

14

8

L 1

70

68

Apr 14

A

BC Khimki

W

69

64

14

7

W 6

69

62

Apr 11

A

Parma

W

72

67

13

7

W 5

74

70

Apr 3

A

Avtodor

W

99

93

12

7

W 4

93

91

Mar 28

A

Enisey

W

96

86

11

7

W 3

90

91

Mar 14

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

78

57

10

7

W 2

74

65

Mar 7

H

Astana

W

75

73

9

7

W 1

71

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Nizhny Novgorod in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 86 points and the Nizhny Novgorod 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Nizhny Novgorod

FG%

0.58

0.53

ASS

19.70

18.10

DRB

22.30

20.80

AST-TO

1.71

1.43

TRB

32.80

29.30

FTM

19.50

13.10

BL

3.30

1.70

FTA

24.70

17.30

PF-Fewer

20.40

23.10

ST

6.90

7.20

TO-Fewer

11.50

12.70

Ftper

0.79

0.76

ORBper

0.47

0.41

ORB

10.50

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Enisey vs BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn at 25 April 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Enisey and BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn for VTB United League, which will take place on 25 April 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Enisey

1.6

4.90

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn

2.32

1.26

Enisey HC

-3.5

8.00

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn HC

+3.5

-8.00

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 16

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

81

74

6

16

W 1

77

84

Apr 12

A

BC Khimki

L

83

89

5

16

L 1

84

86

Apr 9

H

Avtodor

W

86

85

5

15

W 1

81

83

Mar 28

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

86

96

4

15

L 5

88

99

Mar 20

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

84

4

14

L 4

80

82

Mar 11

A

Zielona Gora

L

79

117

4

13

L 3

75

110

Feb 27

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

98

100

4

12

L 2

95

88

Feb 10

H

CSKA Moscow

L

80

91

4

11

L 1

85

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

86

84

8

14

W 2

88

86

Apr 17

H

BC Khimki

W

91

84

7

14

W 1

92

81

Mar 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

94

105

6

14

L 2

91

93

Mar 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

72

94

6

13

L 1

76

82

Mar 16

A

Zielona Gora

W

95

88

6

12

W 1

90

83

Mar 13

H

UNICS

L

49

76

5

12

L 1

54

76

Mar 7

H

Avtodor

W

85

77

5

11

W 2

80

75

Mar 1

A

Astana

W

77

61

4

11

W 1

73

65

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Enisey (in the first graph) and by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Enisey will expected to score 81 points and the BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Enisey

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

15.70

17.10

DRB

20.00

22.40

AST-TO

1.02

1.17

TRB

27.30

30.80

FTM

17.20

12.50

BL

0.70

2.00

FTA

23.70

17.40

PF-Fewer

24.50

20.10

ST

6.00

6.50

TO-Fewer

15.40

14.60

Ftper

0.73

0.72

ORBper

0.36

0.38

ORB

7.30

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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