2021 04 27 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Schalke 04 vs Hertha at 24 April 2021


Schalke 04 vs Hertha at 24 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Schalke 04 and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 24 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Schalke 04

4.57

3.39

7.6

Draw

3.92

3.92

0.0

Hertha

1.77

2.22

-11.5

Over 2.5

1.82

1.88

-1.8

Under 2.5

2.02

2.14

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Schalke 04 (7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance at home.
Schalke 04, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Freiburg

A

0

4

L

O

N

11 Apr

Augsburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Wolfsburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

05 Mar

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G


Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Leverkusen

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Schalke 04 and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Schalke 04

30%

36%

21%

13%

Hertha

24%

28%

24%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 0.88 goals and Hertha to score 1.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Hertha to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 1.17 goals and Hertha to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Hertha to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.10

1

5.81

2-3

2.12

2

4.46

4+

3.51

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.10

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.51

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.39

2.87

2-3 goals

3.36

4.57

2.07

4+ goals

4.19

3.56

2.08

Ov 1.5

3.63

4.13

2.07

Un 1.5

2.80

3.39

2.87

Ov 2.5

3.37

6.65

1.81

Un 2.5

3.42

2.67

3.00

Ov 3.5

4.19

3.56

2.08

Un 3.5

3.15

4.09

2.28

Goal-Goal

4.19

2.91

2.40

No Goal

2.79

6.50

2.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.38

5.36

1.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.66

6.50

2.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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