2021 04 27 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Eastleigh vs Notts County at 27 April 2021
Halifax vs Woking at 27 April 2021
King’s Lynn vs Stockport at 27 April 2021
Maidenhead vs Weymouth at 27 April 2021
Sutton vs Barnet at 27 April 2021
Torquay vs Aldershot at 27 April 2021
Yeovil vs Solihull at 27 April 2021
Bromley vs Chesterfield at 27 April 2021


Eastleigh vs Notts County at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

3.09

2.24

12.3

Draw

3.40

3.80

-3.1

Notts County

2.20

3.45

-16.5

Over 2.5

1.86

1.98

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.94

2.02

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (12.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Dag and Red

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Woking

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Torquay

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Woking

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Apr

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Eastleigh is 0.144 and for the Notts County is -0.21.
The home dynamic for the Eastleigh is 0.419 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.574.
The offensive ability for the Eastleigh is -0.358 and for the Notts County is 0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Eastleigh is 1 and for the Notts County is -0.604.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

22%

33%

25%

20%

Notts County

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.13 goals and Notts County to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Notts County to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.43 goals and Notts County to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.97

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.13

4+

3.91

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.60

3.15

2-3 goals

2.15

4.19

3.38

4+ goals

2.23

3.37

3.94

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.87

3.55

Un 1.5

2.47

3.60

3.15

Ov 2.5

1.89

6.63

3.11

Un 2.5

2.76

2.64

3.86

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.37

3.94

Un 3.5

2.25

3.97

3.30

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.76

3.91

No Goal

1.93

6.66

3.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.46

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.66

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Woking at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

1.67

2.05

-11.1

Draw

3.68

3.95

-1.9

Woking

4.67

3.85

4.6

Over 2.5

1.94

1.97

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.82

2.03

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

4

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Weymouth

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Mar

Sutton

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Notts County

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Halifax is 0.23 and for the Woking is -1.
The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.303 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.66.
The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.54 and for the Woking is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is -0.572 and for the Woking is -0.572.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

27%

26%

24%

Woking

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.68 goals and Woking to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.49 goals and Woking to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.85

1

5.59

2-3

2.07

2

4.27

4+

3.92

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

3.21

2.99

2-3 goals

1.85

4.94

3.90

4+ goals

1.92

3.49

5.20

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.32

4.27

Un 1.5

2.83

3.21

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.64

6.92

4.04

Un 2.5

2.74

2.76

3.66

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.49

5.20

Un 3.5

2.10

4.16

3.53

Goal-Goal

2.21

2.93

4.86

No Goal

1.92

6.15

3.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.52

3.91

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.15

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Stockport at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

4.38

2.81

12.8

Draw

3.80

3.66

1.0

Stockport

1.73

2.70

-20.8

Over 2.5

1.66

2.02

-10.7

Under 2.5

2.17

1.98

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.8 %, 1 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Dag and Red

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Apr

Aldershot

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Halifax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Apr

Stockport

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

3

L

O

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Maidenhead

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Wrexham

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.957 and for the Stockport is 0.952.
The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -0.51 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.053.
The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -0.037 and for the Stockport is 0.641.
Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -0.604 and for the Stockport is 0.957.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

25%

38%

22%

14%

Stockport

26%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 0.95 goals and Stockport to score 1.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.25 goals and Stockport to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.92

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.81

2.93

2-3 goals

2.86

3.78

2.59

4+ goals

3.06

3.30

2.70

Ov 1.5

2.93

3.60

2.63

Un 1.5

2.52

3.81

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.53

6.51

2.22

Un 2.5

3.16

2.56

3.42

Ov 3.5

3.06

3.30

2.70

Un 3.5

2.74

3.79

2.70

Goal-Goal

3.46

2.66

2.99

No Goal

2.29

6.73

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.64

5.51

2.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.73

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Weymouth at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

1.85

2.32

-11.0

Draw

3.53

3.79

-1.9

Weymouth

3.79

3.29

4.0

Over 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.93

2.00

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Wealdstone

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Mar

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Torquay

H

4

1

W

O

G


Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Apr

Aldershot

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Apr

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Halifax

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is -0.037 and for the Weymouth is -0.429.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.019 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.606.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is 0.112 and for the Weymouth is 0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.005 and for the Weymouth is -0.604.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

24%

32%

24%

19%

Weymouth

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.62 goals and Weymouth to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Maidenhead to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.39 goals and Weymouth to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.88

1

5.43

2-3

2.05

2

4.15

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at