2021 04 27 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Bilbao vs Valladolid at 28 April 2021
Barcelona vs Granada at 29 April 2021


Ath Bilbao vs Valladolid at 28 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 28 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

1.90

1.90

0.0

Draw

3.26

4.05

-6.0

Valladolid

5.07

4.42

2.9

Over 2.5

2.30

1.98

7.0

Under 2.5

1.66

2.02

-10.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Betis

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Celta

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G


Valladolid in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Getafe

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Ath Bilbao is 0.112 and for the Valladolid is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is 0.303 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is -0.234.
The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is -0.422 and for the Valladolid is 0.283.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.422 and for the Valladolid is -0.604.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

20%

29%

26%

25%

Valladolid

38%

35%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.47 goals and Valladolid to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.56 goals and Valladolid to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.89

1

5.52

2-3

2.03

2

4.22

4+

3.98

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.38

3.67

2-3 goals

1.72

4.82

4.73

4+ goals

1.95

3.59

4.83

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.32

4.76

Un 1.5

2.32

3.38

3.67

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.23

4.18

Un 2.5

2.34

2.78

4.70

Ov 3.5

1.95

3.59

4.83

Un 3.5

1.89

4.21

4.30

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.88

4.82

No Goal

1.65

6.63

4.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.63

3.83

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.63

3.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barcelona vs Granada at 29 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Granada for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.16

2.09

-38.4

Draw

8.25

3.95

13.2

Granada

16.58

3.73

20.8

Over 2.5

1.34

2.06

-26.1

Under 2.5

3.18

1.95

19.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Granada, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 20.8 %, 19.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 37 points, 77.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Getafe

H

5

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Sociedad

A

6

1

W

O

G

15 Mar

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sevilla

A

2

0

W

U

N


Granada in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Granada in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Granada’s performance as a guest.
Granada, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Granada scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Granada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Sevilla

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Apr

Eibar

H

4

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Valladolid

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Villarreal

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

Valencia

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Barcelona is 0.765 and for the Granada is 0.076.
The home dynamic for the Barcelona is 0.858 and the dynamic as a guest for the Granada is -0.702.
The offensive ability for the Barcelona is 1 and for the Granada is 0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barcelona is -0.54 and for the Granada is -0.604.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Granada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

23%

29%

28%

20%

Granada

41%

26%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 3.16 goals and Granada to score 0.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.57 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 2.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.44 goals and Granada to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.64

1

5.59

2-3

2.09

2

4.20

4+

4.12

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.64

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

2.86

4.58

2-3 goals

1.78

6.47

3.52

4+ goals

2.70

2.96

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.63

3.49

Un 1.5

2.31

2.86

4.58

Ov 2.5

1.99

5.90

3.04

Un 2.5

2.18

3.02

4.75

Ov 3.5

2.70

2.96

3.42

Un 3.5

1.94

4.44

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.75

2.88

3.45

No Goal

1.74

5.71

4.00

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

4.57

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

5.71

4.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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