2021 04 27 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Accrington vs Portsmouth at 27 April 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 27 April 2021
Burton vs Fleetwood Town at 27 April 2021
Charlton vs Crewe at 27 April 2021
Peterboro vs Doncaster at 27 April 2021
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 27 April 2021
Sunderland vs Blackpool at 27 April 2021


Accrington vs Portsmouth at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Accrington

3.50

2.46

12.1

Draw

3.43

3.82

-3.0

Portsmouth

2.14

3.01

-13.5

Over 2.5

2.01

1.95

1.5

Under 2.5

1.82

2.06

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Sunderland

A

3

3

D

O

G

20 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rochdale

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Apr

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Burton

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

7

L

O

N


Portsmouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Swindon

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Crewe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Shrewsbury

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Accrington is -0.176 and for the Portsmouth is -0.124.
The home dynamic for the Accrington is 0.226 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.617.
The offensive ability for the Accrington is 0.54 and for the Portsmouth is 0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Accrington is -0.54 and for the Portsmouth is 0.422.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Accrington

27%

28%

26%

18%

Portsmouth

27%

37%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.01 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.36 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.02

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.22

4+

3.75

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.02

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.19

3.41

2.54

2-3 goals

2.20

4.62

3.03

4+ goals

2.45

3.18

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.29

3.98

3.21

Un 1.5

3.19

3.41

2.54

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.13

2.96

Un 2.5

3.24

2.73

3.08

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.18

3.61

Un 3.5

2.46

4.12

2.84

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.83

3.87

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.11

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

6.40

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

2.03

2.63

-11.2

Draw

3.48

3.62

-1.1

Rochdale

3.72

2.91

7.5

Over 2.5

2.16

2.10

1.3

Under 2.5

1.72

1.91

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Over 2.5 (7.5 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance at home.
AFC Wimbledon, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Oxford

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Swindon

H

4

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Ipswich

H

3

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Accrington

A

5

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Northampton

H

1

0

W

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Accrington

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Portsmouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Peterboro

H

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.594 and for the Rochdale is 0.571.
The home dynamic for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.69 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.021.
The offensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.037 and for the Rochdale is 0.309.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.037 and for the Rochdale is -0.07.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

27%

35%

23%

15%

Rochdale

27%

37%

25%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.41 goals and Rochdale to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team AFC Wimbledon to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.27 goals and Rochdale to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.76

1

5.18

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

4.27

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.76

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.64

2.71

2-3 goals

2.65

3.90

2.73

4+ goals

2.44

3.12

3.71

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.61

2.98

Un 1.5

2.80

3.64

2.71

Ov 2.5

2.14

6.37

2.66

Un 2.5

3.32

2.60

3.18

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.12

3.71

Un 3.5

2.70

3.81

2.73

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.63

3.55

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.43

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.51

6.40

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burton vs Fleetwood Town at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burton

2.68

2.56

1.7

Draw

3.19

3.70

-4.3

Fleetwood Town

2.72

2.96

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.15

2.04

2.5

Under 2.5

1.70

1.96

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance at home.
Burton, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Plymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Apr

Doncaster

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Portsmouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

2

L

O

G


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Hull

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Rochdale

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Peterboro

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Swindon

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Burton is 0.198 and for the Fleetwood Town is 0.114.
The home dynamic for the Burton is -0.665 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fleetwood Town is -0.287.
The offensive ability for the Burton is 0.465 and for the Fleetwood Town is 0.22.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burton is -0.54 and for the Fleetwood Town is 0.465.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burton

27%

32%

24%

17%

Fleetwood Town

27%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 1.16 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.31 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.86

1

5.38

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.03

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

3.55

2.64

2-3 goals

2.46

4.12

2.86

4+ goals

2.41

3.14

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.73

3.10

Un 1.5

2.94

3.55

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.23

2.81

Un 2.5

3.31

2.64

3.14

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.14

3.76

Un 3.5

2.61

3.90

2.78

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.69

3.72

No Goal

2.33

6.38

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.25

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

6.38

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Charlton vs Crewe at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Charlton

1.67

2.31

-16.6

Draw

3.76

3.70

0.4

Crewe

4.94

3.37

9.4

Over 2.5

1.95

2.09

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.85

1.92

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Crewe (0.4 %, 9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Charlton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Peterboro

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Plymouth

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G


Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Rochdale

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Wigan

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Apr

Portsmouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Oxford

H

0

6

L

O

N

05 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Hull

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Charlton is 0.251 and for the Crewe is 0.095.
The home dynamic for the Charlton is -0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.074.
The offensive ability for the Charlton is -0.07 and for the Crewe is -0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Charlton is 0.465 and for the Crewe is 0.39.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Charlton

23%

34%

25%

17%

Crewe

32%

36%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.71 goals and Crewe to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.36 goals and Crewe to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.72

1

5.15

2-3

2.01

2

3.95

4+

4.27

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals