# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Accrington vs Portsmouth at 27 April 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 27 April 2021**** Burton vs Fleetwood Town at 27 April 2021**** Charlton vs Crewe at 27 April 2021**** Peterboro vs Doncaster at 27 April 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 27 April 2021**** Sunderland vs Blackpool at 27 April 2021**

###
Accrington vs Portsmouth at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Accrington** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Accrington |
3.50 |
2.46 |
12.1 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.82 |
-3.0 |

Portsmouth |
2.14 |
3.01 |
-13.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.95 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.06 |
-6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** at home**.

Accrington,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Burton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Burton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Accrington** is **-0.176** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.124.**

The home dynamic for the **Accrington** is **0.226** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portsmouth** is **0.617.**

The offensive ability for the **Accrington** is **0.54** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.193.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Accrington** is **-0.54** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.422.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Accrington** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Accrington |
27% |
28% |
26% |
18% |

Portsmouth |
27% |
37% |
22% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.75 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.19 |
3.41 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.20 |
4.62 |
3.03 |

4+ goals |
2.45 |
3.18 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.98 |
3.21 |

Un 1.5 |
3.19 |
3.41 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.13 |
2.96 |

Un 2.5 |
3.24 |
2.73 |
3.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.18 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
4.12 |
2.84 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.83 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.11 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

####
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###
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AFC Wimbledon** and **Rochdale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AFC Wimbledon |
2.03 |
2.63 |
-11.2 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.62 |
-1.1 |

Rochdale |
3.72 |
2.91 |
7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.10 |
1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.91 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Over 2.5 (7.5 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** at home**.

AFC Wimbledon,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Accrington |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** as a guest**.

Rochdale,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **0.594** and for the **Rochdale** is **0.571.**

The home dynamic for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.69** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Rochdale** is **0.021.**

The offensive ability for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **0.037** and for the **Rochdale** is **0.309.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **0.037** and for the **Rochdale** is **-0.07.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AFC Wimbledon** and the red line for guest team, **Rochdale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AFC Wimbledon |
27% |
35% |
23% |
15% |

Rochdale |
27% |
37% |
25% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **AFC Wimbledon ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.80 |
3.64 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
3.90 |
2.73 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.12 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.61 |
2.98 |

Un 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.64 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.37 |
2.66 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.60 |
3.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.12 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.81 |
2.73 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.63 |
3.55 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.43 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
6.40 |
2.40 |

####
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###
Burton vs Fleetwood Town at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burton** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burton |
2.68 |
2.56 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.70 |
-4.3 |

Fleetwood Town |
2.72 |
2.96 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.04 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.96 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burton, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** at home**.

Burton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Hull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Burton** is **0.198** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **0.114.**

The home dynamic for the **Burton** is **-0.665** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fleetwood Town** is **-0.287.**

The offensive ability for the **Burton** is **0.465** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **0.22.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burton** is **-0.54** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **0.465.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burton** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burton |
27% |
32% |
24% |
17% |

Fleetwood Town |
27% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.03 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.55 |
2.64 |

2-3 goals |
2.46 |
4.12 |
2.86 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.14 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.73 |
3.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.55 |
2.64 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.23 |
2.81 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.64 |
3.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.14 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.90 |
2.78 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.69 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.38 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.25 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.38 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
Charlton vs Crewe at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Charlton** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Charlton |
1.67 |
2.31 |
-16.6 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.70 |
0.4 |

Crewe |
4.94 |
3.37 |
9.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.09 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.92 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Crewe (0.4 %, 9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** at home**.

Charlton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Plymouth |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 39.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Charlton** is **0.251** and for the **Crewe** is **0.095.**

The home dynamic for the **Charlton** is **-0.342** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crewe** is **-0.074.**

The offensive ability for the **Charlton** is **-0.07** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.166.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Charlton** is **0.465** and for the **Crewe** is **0.39.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Charlton** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Charlton |
23% |
34% |
25% |
17% |

Crewe |
32% |
36% |
22% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Charlton ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |