# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newport County vs Scunthorpe at 27 April 2021**** Bradford vs Salford at 27 April 2021**** Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 27 April 2021**** Exeter vs Grimsby at 27 April 2021**** Forest Green vs Barrow at 27 April 2021**

###
Newport County vs Scunthorpe at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
1.59 |
2.34 |
-20.2 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.69 |
0.8 |

Scunthorpe |
5.83 |
3.31 |
13.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.14 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.88 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (0.8 %, 13.1 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 60.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Walsall |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **0.037** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.355** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.17.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.529** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.614.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.957** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.572.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
26% |
31% |
28% |
15% |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.38 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
4.33 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.07 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.84 |
3.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.38 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.38 |
3.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.71 |
3.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.07 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.93 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.69 |
3.98 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
6.02 |
2.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.34 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.02 |
2.82 |

####
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###
Bradford vs Salford at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Salford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.84 |
3.07 |
-2.6 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.69 |
-3.4 |

Salford |
2.48 |
2.48 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.13 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.88 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** as a guest**.

Salford,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bradford** is **-1** and for the **Salford** is **0.743.**

The home dynamic for the **Bradford** is **0.032** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Salford** is **-0.181.**

The offensive ability for the **Bradford** is **0.005** and for the **Salford** is **0.193.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bradford** is **-0.572** and for the **Salford** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Salford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
33% |
31% |
24% |
12% |

Salford |
25% |
36% |
24% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.56 |
3.39 |
2.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.80 |
4.36 |
2.42 |

4+ goals |
3.18 |
3.01 |
2.83 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.82 |
2.53 |

Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
3.39 |
2.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.17 |
2.29 |

Un 2.5 |
3.85 |
2.72 |
2.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |
3.01 |
2.83 |

Un 3.5 |
3.04 |
3.95 |
2.39 |

Goal-Goal |
3.18 |
2.67 |
3.22 |

No Goal |
2.96 |
6.04 |
2.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.16 |
2.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
6.04 |
2.11 |

####
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###
Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
2.51 |
2.48 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.66 |
-4.2 |

Carlisle |
2.86 |
3.10 |
-2.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.17 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.85 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cheltenham (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 63.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cheltenham** is **0.551** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.029.**

The home dynamic for the **Cheltenham** is **0.213** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Carlisle** is **-0.117.**

The offensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.497** and for the **Carlisle** is **-0.256.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.957** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.358.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
27% |
32% |
26% |
14% |

Carlisle |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.34 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
4.25 |
3.14 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.10 |
3.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.81 |
3.18 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.34 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.45 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.68 |
3.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.10 |
3.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.87 |
3.04 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.66 |
3.69 |

No Goal |
2.21 |
5.87 |
2.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.38 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.87 |
2.69 |

####
Go to Top

###
Exeter vs Grimsby at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Exeter** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Exeter |
1.64 |
2.00 |
-11.0 |

Draw |
3.91 |
3.89 |
0.1 |

Grimsby |
5.06 |
4.15 |
4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.93 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.07 |
-1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Grimsby (0.1 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** didn’t score to any of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** at home**.

Exeter,** at home**, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cambridge |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Exeter** is **-0.198** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.124.**

The home dynamic for the **Exeter** is **0.123** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Grimsby** is **-0.489.**

The offensive ability for the **Exeter** is **-1** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.166.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Exeter** is **1** and for the **Grimsby** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Exeter** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Exeter |
17% |
35% |
23% |
24% |

Grimsby |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Exeter** to score **1.85 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and the home team **Exeter ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Exeter** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Exeter ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.82 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |