2021 04 27 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newport County vs Scunthorpe at 27 April 2021
Bradford vs Salford at 27 April 2021
Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 27 April 2021
Exeter vs Grimsby at 27 April 2021
Forest Green vs Barrow at 27 April 2021


Newport County vs Scunthorpe at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

1.59

2.34

-20.2

Draw

3.80

3.69

0.8

Scunthorpe

5.83

3.31

13.1

Over 2.5

2.24

2.14

2.1

Under 2.5

1.64

1.88

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (0.8 %, 13.1 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 60.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Cambridge

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Carlisle

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Bolton

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Walsall

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Apr

Mansfield

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Morecambe

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Mar

Bradford

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Newport County is 0.037 and for the Scunthorpe is -1.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.355 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.17.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is -0.529 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.614.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is 0.957 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.572.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

26%

31%

28%

15%

Scunthorpe

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.6 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.32 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.61

1

5.13

2-3

2.01

2

3.91

4+

4.46

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.38

2.92

2-3 goals

2.09

4.33

3.43

4+ goals

2.52

3.07

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.84

3.49

Un 1.5

2.77

3.38

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.38

3.03

Un 2.5

2.84

2.71

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.07

3.61

Un 3.5

2.29

3.93

3.23

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.69

3.98

No Goal

2.08

6.02

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.34

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.02

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bradford vs Salford at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.84

3.07

-2.6

Draw

3.28

3.69

-3.4

Salford

2.48

2.48

0.0

Over 2.5

2.17

2.13

0.9

Under 2.5

1.70

1.88

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Port Vale

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Harrogate

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Crawley Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Forest Green

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G


Salford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 16 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Tranmere

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Stevenage

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Exeter

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Bradford is -1 and for the Salford is 0.743.
The home dynamic for the Bradford is 0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.181.
The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.005 and for the Salford is 0.193.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.572 and for the Salford is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

33%

31%

24%

12%

Salford

25%

36%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.1 goals and Salford to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.15 goals and Salford to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.60

1

5.10

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.37

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.60

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.56

3.39

2.36

2-3 goals

2.80

4.36

2.42

4+ goals

3.18

3.01

2.83

Ov 1.5

2.91

3.82

2.53

Un 1.5

3.56

3.39

2.36

Ov 2.5

2.49

6.17

2.29

Un 2.5

3.85

2.72

2.68

Ov 3.5

3.18

3.01

2.83

Un 3.5

3.04

3.95

2.39

Goal-Goal

3.18

2.67

3.22

No Goal

2.96

6.04

2.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.47

5.16

2.50

NG+Un 2.5

3.03

6.04

2.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

2.51

2.48

0.5

Draw

3.17

3.66

-4.2

Carlisle

2.86

3.10

-2.7

Over 2.5

2.02

2.17

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.79

1.85

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cheltenham (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 63.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N


Carlisle in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Harrogate

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Cheltenham is 0.551 and for the Carlisle is 0.029.
The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.213 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.117.
The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.497 and for the Carlisle is -0.256.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.957 and for the Carlisle is 0.358.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

27%

32%

26%

14%

Carlisle

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.27 goals and Carlisle to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.27 goals and Carlisle to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.52

1

5.03

2-3

2.03

2

3.92

4+

4.55

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.34

2.87

2-3 goals

2.24

4.25

3.14

4+ goals

2.68

3.10

3.28

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.81

3.18

Un 1.5

2.84

3.34

2.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.45

2.76

Un 2.5

2.98

2.68

3.43

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.10

3.28

Un 3.5

2.43

3.87

3.04

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.66

3.69

No Goal

2.21

5.87

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

5.38

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.87

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Exeter vs Grimsby at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Exeter and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Exeter

1.64

2.00

-11.0

Draw

3.91

3.89

0.1

Grimsby

5.06

4.15

4.3

Over 2.5

1.78

1.93

-4.4

Under 2.5

2.02

2.07

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Grimsby (0.1 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Exeter in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter didn’t score to any of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance at home.
Exeter, at home, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Newport County

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Forest Green

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Cambridge

A

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Mansfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Port Vale

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N


Grimsby in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 31.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Morecambe

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Bolton

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Cheltenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Mar

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Exeter is -0.198 and for the Grimsby is 0.124.
The home dynamic for the Exeter is 0.123 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is -0.489.
The offensive ability for the Exeter is -1 and for the Grimsby is 0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Exeter is 1 and for the Grimsby is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Exeter and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Exeter

17%

35%

23%

24%

Grimsby

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.85 goals and Grimsby to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.54 goals and Grimsby to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.17

1

5.49

2-3

2.01

2

4.12

4+

3.82

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.17

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals