2021 04 27 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Farense vs Portimonense at 28 April 2021
Maritimo vs Sp Braga at 29 April 2021


Farense vs Portimonense at 28 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 28 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Farense

2.21

2.25

-0.8

Draw

3.16

3.66

-4.3

Portimonense

3.36

3.53

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.34

2.13

4.2

Under 2.5

1.59

1.89

-10.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N


Portimonense in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Apr

Benfica

H

1

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Apr

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Nacional

A

5

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Tondela

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Maritimo

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Farense is -0.626 and for the Portimonense is 0.143.
The home dynamic for the Farense is -0.703 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is -0.83.
The offensive ability for the Farense is -0.422 and for the Portimonense is 0.668.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Farense is -0.005 and for the Portimonense is 0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Farense

24%

33%

23%

19%

Portimonense

31%

43%

13%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 1.24 goals and Portimonense to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Farense to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 1.38 goals and Portimonense to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.53

1

4.81

2-3

2.08

2

4.07

4+

4.24

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.53

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.77

2.72

2-3 goals

2.06

3.36

4.62

4+ goals

2.23

4.29

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.62

4.01

Un 1.5

2.72

3.77

2.72

Ov 2.5

1.76

8.56

3.16

Un 2.5

2.99

2.43

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.23

4.29

3.15

Un 3.5

2.26

3.50

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.64

4.46

No Goal

2.02

6.37

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

6.89

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.37

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maritimo vs Sp Braga at 29 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 29 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

5.73

6.17

-1.2

Draw

4.00

4.08

-0.5

Sp Braga

1.56

1.69

-4.9

Over 2.5

1.85

2.39

-12.2

Under 2.5

1.96

1.72

7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Rio Ave

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Benfica

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Famalicao

H

0

4

L

O

N

12 Mar

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N


Sp Braga in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 Mar

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Maritimo is -0.048 and for the Sp Braga is 0.095.
The home dynamic for the Maritimo is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Braga is 0.617.
The offensive ability for the Maritimo is -0.316 and for the Sp Braga is -0.229.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maritimo is 0.572 and for the Sp Braga is -0.497.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

47%

38%

14%

2%

Sp Braga

23%

24%

33%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 0.73 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 0.7 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.29

1

5.08

2-3

1.88

2

3.61

4+

6.17

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.29

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

333.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.45

Ov 3.5

6.17

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.58

2.84

2.71

2-3 goals

7.96

5.99

1.41

4+ goals

18.00

3.31

1.56

Ov 1.5

9.14

5.04

1.44

Un 1.5

3.58

2.84

2.71

Ov 2.5

9.29

8.53

1.29

Un 2.5

5.01

2.96

2.16

Ov 3.5

18.00

3.31

1.56

Un 3.5

5.51

4.27

1.71

Goal-Goal

9.95

2.96

1.78

No Goal

4.92

5.52

1.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

7.78

6.51

1.39

NG+Un 2.5

4.24

5.52

1.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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