# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Farense vs Portimonense at 28 April 2021**** Maritimo vs Sp Braga at 29 April 2021**

###
Farense vs Portimonense at 28 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Farense** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **28 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Farense |
2.21 |
2.25 |
-0.8 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.66 |
-4.3 |

Portimonense |
3.36 |
3.53 |
-1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.13 |
4.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.89 |
-10.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** at home**.

Farense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Apr |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Guimaraes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Nacional |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Porto |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Farense** is **-0.626** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.143.**

The home dynamic for the **Farense** is **-0.703** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portimonense** is **-0.83.**

The offensive ability for the **Farense** is **-0.422** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.668.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Farense** is **-0.005** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.037.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Farense** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Farense |
24% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

Portimonense |
31% |
43% |
13% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Farense ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.53 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.77 |
2.72 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
3.36 |
4.62 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
4.29 |
3.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.62 |
4.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.77 |
2.72 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
8.56 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.43 |
3.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
4.29 |
3.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.50 |
3.67 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.64 |
4.46 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
6.37 |
2.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
6.89 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.37 |
2.88 |

####
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###
Maritimo vs Sp Braga at 29 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maritimo** and **Sp Braga** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **29 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maritimo |
5.73 |
6.17 |
-1.2 |

Draw |
4.00 |
4.08 |
-0.5 |

Sp Braga |
1.56 |
1.69 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.39 |
-12.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.72 |
7.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** at home**.

Maritimo,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Apr |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Sp Braga** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Braga** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Braga,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Apr |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Mar |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Guimaraes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Maritimo** is **-0.048** and for the **Sp Braga** is **0.095.**

The home dynamic for the **Maritimo** is **-1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sp Braga** is **0.617.**

The offensive ability for the **Maritimo** is **-0.316** and for the **Sp Braga** is **-0.229.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maritimo** is **0.572** and for the **Sp Braga** is **-0.497.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maritimo** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Braga. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maritimo |
47% |
38% |
14% |
2% |

Sp Braga |
23% |
24% |
33% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **1.14** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **0.7 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
3.61 |
4+ |
6.17 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
30.30 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
333.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.17 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.58 |
2.84 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
7.96 |
5.99 |
1.41 |

4+ goals |
18.00 |
3.31 |
1.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
9.14 |
5.04 |
1.44 |

Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
2.84 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
9.29 |
8.53 |
1.29 |

Un 2.5 |
5.01 |
2.96 |
2.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
18.00 |
3.31 |
1.56 |

Un 3.5 |
5.51 |
4.27 |
1.71 |

Goal-Goal |
9.95 |
2.96 |
1.78 |

No Goal |
4.92 |
5.52 |
1.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
7.78 |
6.51 |
1.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.24 |
5.52 |
1.83 |

####
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