# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Empoli vs Chievo at 27 April 2021**** Pescara vs Virtus Entella at 27 April 2021**

###
Empoli vs Chievo at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Empoli** and **Chievo** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Empoli |
1.90 |
2.03 |
-3.4 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.80 |
-5.1 |

Chievo |
4.34 |
4.10 |
1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.19 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.84 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Chievo (1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Empoli** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Empoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance** at home**.

Empoli,** at home**, had 9 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Brescia |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Apr |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Virtus Entella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Vicenza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Reggina |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** as a guest**.

Chievo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Apr |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Spal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Mar |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Empoli** is **1** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.095.**

The home dynamic for the **Empoli** is **0.626** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chievo** is **-0.085.**

The offensive ability for the **Empoli** is **1** and for the **Chievo** is **0.166.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Empoli** is **0.786** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.037.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Empoli** and the red line for guest team, **Chievo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Empoli |
20% |
35% |
26% |
18% |

Chievo |
38% |
34% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Empoli** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Empoli ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Empoli** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Empoli ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.61 |
4.01 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
4.13 |
4.24 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.38 |
3.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.00 |
3.88 |
4.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.61 |
4.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.22 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.71 |
5.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.38 |
3.94 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.92 |
4.15 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.65 |
4.16 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.47 |
4.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.81 |
3.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.47 |
3.91 |

####
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###
Pescara vs Virtus Entella at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pescara** and **Virtus Entella** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **27 Apr 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pescara |
1.78 |
2.43 |
-15.0 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.46 |
-1.0 |

Virtus Entella |
4.76 |
3.33 |
9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.36 |
-3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.73 |
-2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pescara** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pescara** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance** at home**.

Pescara,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Monza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Pisa |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Spal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cittadella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** as a guest**.

Virtus Entella,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Apr |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Monza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Spal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Ascoli |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Lecce |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Pescara** is **-0.369** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.79.**

The home dynamic for the **Pescara** is **-0.845** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.713.**

The offensive ability for the **Pescara** is **0.144** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Pescara** is **-0.604** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.604.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pescara** and the red line for guest team, **Virtus Entella. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pescara |
25% |
38% |
25% |
13% |

Virtus Entella |
32% |
41% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Pescara ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.62 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.80 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.33 |
3.66 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.33 |
3.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.33 |
3.55 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.80 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.42 |
2.80 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.48 |
3.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.33 |
3.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.49 |
3.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.44 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.16 |
2.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.30 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.16 |
2.84 |

####
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