2021 04 27 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Empoli vs Chievo at 27 April 2021
Pescara vs Virtus Entella at 27 April 2021


Empoli vs Chievo at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Empoli and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Empoli

1.90

2.03

-3.4

Draw

3.18

3.80

-5.1

Chievo

4.34

4.10

1.3

Over 2.5

2.15

2.19

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.70

1.84

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Chievo (1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Empoli in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance at home.
Empoli, at home, had 9 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Brescia

H

4

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Cremonese

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Apr

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Vicenza

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Reggina

A

3

0

W

O

N


Chievo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Apr

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Reggina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Lecce

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Pordenone

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Empoli is 1 and for the Chievo is -0.095.
The home dynamic for the Empoli is 0.626 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chievo is -0.085.
The offensive ability for the Empoli is 1 and for the Chievo is 0.166.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Empoli is 0.786 and for the Chievo is -0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Empoli

20%

35%

26%

18%

Chievo

38%

34%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.47 goals and Chievo to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.43 goals and Chievo to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.51

1

4.85

2-3

2.00

2

3.88

4+

4.69

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.51

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.61

4.01

2-3 goals

1.92

4.13

4.24

4+ goals

2.22

3.38

3.94

Ov 1.5

2.00

3.88

4.15

Un 1.5

2.11

3.61

4.01

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.22

3.37

Un 2.5

2.31

2.71

5.03

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.38

3.94

Un 3.5

1.98

3.92

4.15

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.65

4.16

No Goal

1.67

6.47

4.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.81

3.13

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

6.47

3.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pescara vs Virtus Entella at 27 Apr 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Virtus Entella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Apr 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

1.78

2.43

-15.0

Draw

3.34

3.46

-1.0

Virtus Entella

4.76

3.33

9.0

Over 2.5

2.18

2.36

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.67

1.73

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Brescia

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Pisa

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Vicenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Ascoli

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Pordenone

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Cittadella

A

1

0

W

U

N


Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance as a guest.
Virtus Entella, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

Salernitana

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Pordenone

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Ascoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Pescara is -0.369 and for the Virtus Entella is -0.79.
The home dynamic for the Pescara is -0.845 and the dynamic as a guest for the Virtus Entella is -0.713.
The offensive ability for the Pescara is 0.144 and for the Virtus Entella is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pescara is -0.604 and for the Virtus Entella is -0.604.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Virtus Entella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

25%

38%

25%

13%

Virtus Entella

32%

41%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.51 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Pescara to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.25 goals and Virtus Entella to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.33

1

4.52

2-3

1.96

2

3.62

4+

5.26

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.33

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.80

2.91

2-3 goals

2.35

3.33

3.66

4+ goals

2.53

3.33

3.28

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.33

3.55

Un 1.5

2.54

3.80

2.91

Ov 2.5

1.97

7.42

2.80

Un 2.5

2.95

2.48

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.33

3.28

Un 3.5

2.41

3.49

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.44

4.03

No Goal

2.07

6.16

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

6.30

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.16

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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