2021 04 30 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mainz vs Hertha at 03 May 2021


Mainz vs Hertha at 03 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mainz and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 03 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mainz

2.31

2.60

-4.8

Draw

3.30

3.83

-4.2

Hertha

3.21

2.82

4.3

Over 2.5

1.91

1.91

0.0

Under 2.5

1.94

2.10

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha (4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mainz in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance at home.
Mainz, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Werder Bremen

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

FC Koln

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bielefeld

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Hoffenheim

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Freiburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Schalke 04

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N


Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Apr

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Leverkusen

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Mainz is 0.968 and for the Hertha is 0.113.
The home dynamic for the Mainz is -0.696 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hertha is -0.675.
The offensive ability for the Mainz is 1 and for the Hertha is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mainz is -0.356 and for the Hertha is -0.586.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mainz

25%

34%

24%

17%

Hertha

29%

31%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.43 goals and Hertha to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.34 goals and Hertha to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.07

1

5.71

2-3

2.11

2

4.35

4+

3.57

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.46

3.19

2-3 goals

2.44

4.47

2.72

4+ goals

3.01

3.33

2.72

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.97

2.72

Un 1.5

2.51

3.46

3.19

Ov 2.5

2.40

6.24

2.36

Un 2.5

2.85

2.69

3.61

Ov 3.5

3.01

3.33

2.72

Un 3.5

2.47

4.07

2.87

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.82

3.01

No Goal

2.14

6.54

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

5.12

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.54

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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