2021 04 30 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Huddersfield vs Coventry at 01 May 2021
Rotherham vs Blackburn at 01 May 2021
Wycombe vs Bournemouth at 01 May 2021
Swansea vs Derby at 01 May 2021
Stoke vs QPR at 01 May 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Nott’m Forest at 01 May 2021
Preston vs Barnsley at 01 May 2021
Norwich vs Reading at 01 May 2021
Luton vs Middlesbrough at 01 May 2021
Brentford vs Watford at 01 May 2021
Birmingham vs Cardiff at 01 May 2021
Millwall vs Bristol City at 01 May 2021


Huddersfield vs Coventry at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

2.50

2.21

5.2

Draw

3.19

3.85

-5.4

Coventry

2.92

3.48

-5.5

Over 2.5

2.26

2.03

5.0

Under 2.5

1.64

1.97

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Blackburn

A

2

5

L

O

G

21 Apr

Barnsley

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Rotherham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Norwich

A

0

7

L

O

N

03 Apr

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

1

1

D

U

G


Coventry in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 25.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 20 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Stoke

A

3

2

W

O

G

18 Apr

Barnsley

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Apr

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Bournemouth

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Bristol City

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

QPR

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Wycombe

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Huddersfield is -0.468 and for the Coventry is 0.427.
The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is -0.118 and the dynamic as a guest for the Coventry is -0.381.
The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is -0.155 and for the Coventry is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is -0.356 and for the Coventry is -0.207.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

25%

29%

27%

19%

Coventry

34%

35%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.18 goals and Coventry to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.41 goals and Coventry to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.76

1

5.46

2-3

2.05

2

4.13

4+

4.05

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.76

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.20

3.09

2-3 goals

1.95

4.88

3.54

4+ goals

2.33

3.21

3.86

Ov 1.5

2.06

4.15

3.64

Un 1.5

2.74

3.20

3.09

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.40

3.26

Un 2.5

2.70

2.78

3.71

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.21

3.86

Un 3.5

2.17

4.12

3.37

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.82

4.07

No Goal

1.98

6.04

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.19

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.04

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rotherham vs Blackburn at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.48

2.73

-3.7

Draw

3.40

3.66

-2.1

Blackburn

2.79

2.77

0.3

Over 2.5

1.96

2.19

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.86

1.84

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Brentford

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Barnsley

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Apr

Coventry

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

QPR

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Huddersfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Wycombe

H

0

3

L

O

N


Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Huddersfield

H

5

2

W

O

G

20 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Apr

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Cardiff

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Bournemouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Bristol City

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Rotherham is -0.706 and for the Blackburn is -0.016.
The home dynamic for the Rotherham is -0.392 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Rotherham is -0.7 and for the Blackburn is 0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rotherham is -1 and for the Blackburn is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

30%

35%

20%

15%

Blackburn

31%

33%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.3 goals and Blackburn to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.2 goals and Blackburn to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.37

1

4.85

2-3

2.10

2

4.10

4+

4.44

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.37

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.26

3.00

2-3 goals

2.74

4.11

2.55

4+ goals

2.68

3.41

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.72

3.86

2.68

Un 1.5

2.78

3.26

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.32

6.94

2.35

Un 2.5

3.22

2.61

3.26

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.41

3.00

Un 3.5

2.75

3.74

2.71

Goal-Goal

3.23

2.68

3.16

No Goal

2.39

5.63

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.62

2.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

5.63

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wycombe vs Bournemouth at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

6.08

3.24

14.4

Draw

4.08

3.73

2.3

Bournemouth

1.53

2.36

-23.0

Over 2.5

1.80

2.20

-10.1

Under 2.5

2.01

1.83

4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 2.3 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 34.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Cardiff

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Apr

Bristol City

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Swansea

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Luton

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Rotherham

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Mar

Barnsley

H

1

3

L

O

G


Bournemouth in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance as a guest.
Bournemouth, as a guest, had 9 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 53.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Brentford

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Millwall

A

4

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Norwich

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Coventry

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Blackburn

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Middlesbrough

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Swansea

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Wycombe is 0.19 and for the Bournemouth is 0.75.
The home dynamic for the Wycombe is -0.539 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bournemouth is 0.086.
The offensive ability for the Wycombe is 1 and for the Bournemouth is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.43 and for the Bournemouth is -0.674.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

39%

29%

18%

14%

Bournemouth

30%

29%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.72 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Bournemouth to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.07 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

3.13

1

5.00

2-3

2.18

2

4.41

4+

4.48

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.13

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.58

2.68

2.87

2-3 goals

3.10

5.46

2.02

4+ goals

3.10

3.38

2.62

Ov 1.5

3.10

4.55

2.19

Un 1.5

3.58

2.68

2.87

Ov 2.5

2.74

6.89

2.04

Un 2.5

3.82

2.69

2.73

Ov 3.5

3.10

3.38

2.62

Un 3.5

3.28

3.83

2.30

Goal-Goal

3.46

2.83

2.80

No Goal

3.10

4.84

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.77

5.17

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

3.23

4.84

2.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Derby at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

2.40

1.75

15.5

Draw

3.20

4.12

-7.0

Derby

3.07

5.38

-14.0

Over 2.5

2.27

2.05

4.7

Under 2.5

1.65

1.95

-9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (15.5 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 11 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 59.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Reading

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Apr

QPR

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wycombe

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Cardiff

H

0

1

L

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 28.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Apr

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Norwich

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Luton

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Brentford

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Swansea is 0.056 and for the Derby is -0.702.
The home dynamic for the Swansea is 0.186 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.086.
The offensive ability for the Swansea is 0.209 and for the Derby is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is -0.385 and for the Derby is -0.674.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

17%

30%

28%

25%

Derby

40%

40%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.21 goals and Derby to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.6 goals and Derby to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.89

1

5.29

2-3

1.95

2

3.95

4+

4.39

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.89

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-