# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Huddersfield vs Coventry at 01 May 2021**** Rotherham vs Blackburn at 01 May 2021**** Wycombe vs Bournemouth at 01 May 2021**** Swansea vs Derby at 01 May 2021**** Stoke vs QPR at 01 May 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Nott’m Forest at 01 May 2021**** Preston vs Barnsley at 01 May 2021**** Norwich vs Reading at 01 May 2021**** Luton vs Middlesbrough at 01 May 2021**** Brentford vs Watford at 01 May 2021**** Birmingham vs Cardiff at 01 May 2021**** Millwall vs Bristol City at 01 May 2021**

###
Huddersfield vs Coventry at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huddersfield** and **Coventry** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huddersfield |
2.50 |
2.21 |
5.2 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.85 |
-5.4 |

Coventry |
2.92 |
3.48 |
-5.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.03 |
5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.97 |
-10.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** at home**.

Huddersfield,** at home**, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** as a guest**.

Coventry,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 25.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 20 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Stoke |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bristol City |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
QPR |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.468** and for the **Coventry** is **0.427.**

The home dynamic for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.118** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Coventry** is **-0.381.**

The offensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.155** and for the **Coventry** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.356** and for the **Coventry** is **-0.207.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huddersfield** and the red line for guest team, **Coventry. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huddersfield |
25% |
29% |
27% |
19% |

Coventry |
34% |
35% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Huddersfield ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.20 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.88 |
3.54 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.21 |
3.86 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.20 |
3.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.40 |
3.26 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.78 |
3.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.21 |
3.86 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.12 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.82 |
4.07 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.04 |
3.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.19 |
3.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.04 |
2.98 |

####
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###
Rotherham vs Blackburn at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rotherham** and **Blackburn** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rotherham |
2.48 |
2.73 |
-3.7 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.66 |
-2.1 |

Blackburn |
2.79 |
2.77 |
0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.19 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.84 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Blackburn, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** at home**.

Rotherham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Apr |
Coventry |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
QPR |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Wycombe |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackburn,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Huddersfield |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Bristol City |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Rotherham** is **-0.706** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Rotherham** is **-0.392** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackburn** is **-0.005.**

The offensive ability for the **Rotherham** is **-0.7** and for the **Blackburn** is **0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rotherham** is **-1** and for the **Blackburn** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rotherham** and the red line for guest team, **Blackburn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rotherham |
30% |
35% |
20% |
15% |

Blackburn |
31% |
33% |
22% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.26 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.74 |
4.11 |
2.55 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.41 |
3.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.86 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.26 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.94 |
2.35 |

Un 2.5 |
3.22 |
2.61 |
3.26 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.41 |
3.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.75 |
3.74 |
2.71 |

Goal-Goal |
3.23 |
2.68 |
3.16 |

No Goal |
2.39 |
5.63 |
2.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.62 |
2.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
5.63 |
2.56 |

####
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###
Wycombe vs Bournemouth at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **Bournemouth** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
6.08 |
3.24 |
14.4 |

Draw |
4.08 |
3.73 |
2.3 |

Bournemouth |
1.53 |
2.36 |
-23.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.20 |
-10.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.83 |
4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 2.3 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 34.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Swansea |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Luton |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Mar |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bournemouth** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bournemouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Bournemouth,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 53.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Millwall |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Coventry |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wycombe** is **0.19** and for the **Bournemouth** is **0.75.**

The home dynamic for the **Wycombe** is **-0.539** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bournemouth** is **0.086.**

The offensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **1** and for the **Bournemouth** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **-0.43** and for the **Bournemouth** is **-0.674.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **Bournemouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
39% |
29% |
18% |
14% |

Bournemouth |
30% |
29% |
23% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **0.72 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Bournemouth ** to win by **1.22** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.40 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.35 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.58 |
2.68 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
3.10 |
5.46 |
2.02 |

4+ goals |
3.10 |
3.38 |
2.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.10 |
4.55 |
2.19 |

Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
2.68 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
6.89 |
2.04 |

Un 2.5 |
3.82 |
2.69 |
2.73 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.38 |
2.62 |

Un 3.5 |
3.28 |
3.83 |
2.30 |

Goal-Goal |
3.46 |
2.83 |
2.80 |

No Goal |
3.10 |
4.84 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
5.17 |
2.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.23 |
4.84 |
2.31 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swansea vs Derby at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
2.40 |
1.75 |
15.5 |

Draw |
3.20 |
4.12 |
-7.0 |

Derby |
3.07 |
5.38 |
-14.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.05 |
4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.95 |
-9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swansea, Over 2.5 (15.5 %, 4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 11 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 59.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Apr |
Reading |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
QPR |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Millwall |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 28.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Luton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Swansea** is **0.056** and for the **Derby** is **-0.702.**

The home dynamic for the **Swansea** is **0.186** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Derby** is **-0.086.**

The offensive ability for the **Swansea** is **0.209** and for the **Derby** is **0.311.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swansea** is **-0.385** and for the **Derby** is **-0.674.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
17% |
30% |
28% |
25% |

Derby |
40% |
40% |
12% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |