2021 04 30 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hartlepool vs Chesterfield at 01 May 2021
Wrexham vs Solihull at 01 May 2021
Woking vs Weymouth at 01 May 2021
Wealdstone vs Yeovil at 01 May 2021
Torquay vs Eastleigh at 01 May 2021
King’s Lynn vs Maidenhead at 01 May 2021
Halifax vs Stockport at 01 May 2021
Barnet vs Dag and Red at 01 May 2021
Altrincham vs Notts County at 01 May 2021
Sutton vs Aldershot at 01 May 2021


Hartlepool vs Chesterfield at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

2.22

2.24

-0.4

Draw

3.18

3.79

-5.1

Chesterfield

3.14

3.45

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.29

1.98

6.8

Under 2.5

1.59

2.02

-13.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 12 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Wealdstone

A

7

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Notts County

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Dag and Red

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Stockport

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Hartlepool is 0.802 and for the Chesterfield is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Hartlepool is 0.304 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is -0.015.
The offensive ability for the Hartlepool is 1 and for the Chesterfield is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hartlepool is -0.356 and for the Chesterfield is -0.207.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

22%

33%

25%

20%

Chesterfield

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.23 goals and Chesterfield to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.43 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.97

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.89

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

3.65

3.15

2-3 goals

2.15

4.15

3.40

4+ goals

2.23

3.38

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.85

3.56

Un 1.5

2.45

3.65

3.15

Ov 2.5

1.89

6.63

3.11

Un 2.5

2.75

2.65

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.38

3.89

Un 3.5

2.24

3.97

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.75

3.90

No Goal

1.91

6.74

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.47

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.74

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Solihull at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.24

1.97

6.1

Draw

3.23

3.97

-5.8

Solihull

3.34

4.15

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.38

1.94

9.5

Under 2.5

1.60

2.06

-14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (6.1 %, 9.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Chesterfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Woking

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Apr

Halifax

A

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Stockport

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Bromley

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Eastleigh

H

2

2

D

O

G


Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 28.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Yeovil

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Yeovil

H

5

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Dag and Red

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Notts County

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Wealdstone

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is -0.024 and for the Solihull is 0.21.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.235 and the dynamic as a guest for the Solihull is -0.178.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.573 and for the Solihull is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.111 and for the Solihull is -0.322.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

20%

30%

26%

24%

Solihull

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.23 goals and Solihull to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.54 goals and Solihull to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.05

1

5.65

2-3

2.02

2

4.18

4+

3.83

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.05

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.53

3.34

2-3 goals

1.84

4.53

4.26

4+ goals

1.91

3.58

5.12

Ov 1.5

1.86

4.15

4.52

Un 1.5

2.40

3.53

3.34

Ov 2.5

1.63

7.07

4.06

Un 2.5

2.52

2.72

4.26

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.58

5.12

Un 3.5

1.99

4.14

3.90

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.87

4.80

No Goal

1.73

6.84

3.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.67

3.80

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.84

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Woking vs Weymouth at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

2.20

2.29

-1.8

Draw

3.26

3.77

-4.1

Weymouth

3.09

3.34

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.08

1.99

2.2

Under 2.5

1.73

2.01

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Notts County

H

2

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N


Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Aldershot

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Apr

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Halifax

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Apr

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Woking is -0.857 and for the Weymouth is -0.25.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.157 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.523.
The offensive ability for the Woking is -0.636 and for the Weymouth is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -0.726 and for the Weymouth is -0.533.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

23%

33%

24%

19%

Weymouth

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.32 goals and Weymouth to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.41 goals and Weymouth to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.95

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.10

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.61

3.12

2-3 goals

2.21

4.13

3.27

4+ goals

2.31

3.32

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.81

3.43

Un 1.5

2.48

3.61

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.53

2.99

Un 2.5

2.81

2.63

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.32

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.94

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.73

3.79

No Goal

1.96

6.64

2.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.40

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.64

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Yeovil at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

4.94

2.51

19.6

Draw

4.00

3.73

1.8

Yeovil

1.58

3.00

-30.0

Over 2.5

1.63

2.02

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.18

1.98

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Draw, Under 2.5 (19.6 %, 1.8 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Aldershot

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Apr

Maidenhead

H

0

6

L

O

N

17 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

7

L

O

G

10 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Mar

Solihull

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Mar

Woking

H

0

1

L

U

N


Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Solihull

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Solihull

A

1

5

L

O

G

17 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.54 and for the Yeovil is 0.315.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.225 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.066.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.064 and for the Yeovil is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Yeovil is -0.119.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

26%

33%

24%

17%

Yeovil

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.86 goals and Yeovil to score 2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Yeovil to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.32 goals and Yeovil to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.82

1

5.35

2-3

2.05

2

4.10

4+

3.98

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.82

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5