# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Northampton vs Blackpool at 01 May 2021**** Peterboro vs Lincoln at 01 May 2021**** Swindon vs Ipswich at 01 May 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Oxford at 01 May 2021**** Plymouth vs Sunderland at 01 May 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Milton Keynes Dons at 01 May 2021**** Rochdale vs Doncaster at 01 May 2021**** Burton vs Gillingham at 01 May 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Crewe at 01 May 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth at 01 May 2021**** Accrington vs Charlton at 01 May 2021**** Hull vs Wigan at 01 May 2021**

###
Northampton vs Blackpool at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Blackpool** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
3.53 |
2.67 |
9.1 |

Draw |
3.25 |
4.05 |
-6.1 |

Blackpool |
2.12 |
2.64 |
-9.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
1.79 |
10.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.27 |
-16.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (9.1 %, 10.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 43.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 17 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Ipswich |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Apr |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackpool,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Northampton** is **0.071** and for the **Blackpool** is **0.089.**

The home dynamic for the **Northampton** is **-0.569** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackpool** is **-0.056.**

The offensive ability for the **Northampton** is **0.636** and for the **Blackpool** is **-0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Northampton** is **-0.356** and for the **Blackpool** is **0.207.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Blackpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
30% |
23% |
28% |
19% |

Blackpool |
23% |
38% |
19% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the guest team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
6.06 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.85 |
4+ |
3.29 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
10.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.27 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.29 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.50 |
3.39 |
2.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
5.41 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.30 |
2.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
4.32 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
4.50 |
3.39 |
2.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.07 |
2.68 |

Un 2.5 |
3.79 |
2.86 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.30 |
2.95 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
4.51 |
2.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
3.03 |
3.68 |

No Goal |
2.88 |
6.68 |
1.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
4.91 |
3.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
6.68 |
2.09 |

####
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###
Peterboro vs Lincoln at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
2.08 |
2.35 |
-5.5 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.76 |
-2.9 |

Lincoln |
3.45 |
3.26 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.02 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.98 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lincoln (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 15 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 49 points, 74.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 15 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Northampton |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Sunderland |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
7 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 13 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 44 points, 69.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Hull |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Burton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.413** and for the **Lincoln** is **0.629.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.412** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lincoln** is **0.716.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.573** and for the **Lincoln** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **-0.333** and for the **Lincoln** is **0.612.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
25% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Lincoln |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.03 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.50 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
4.28 |
3.26 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.18 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.83 |
3.41 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.50 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.32 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.68 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.18 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.97 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.73 |
3.90 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.39 |
2.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.27 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.39 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Swindon vs Ipswich at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Ipswich** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
2.96 |
2.60 |
4.7 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.82 |
-3.9 |

Ipswich |
2.35 |
2.83 |
-7.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.93 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.07 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 8 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 20 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Apr |
Portsmouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich** didn’t score to any of them.** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** as a guest**.

Ipswich,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-0.603** and for the **Ipswich** is **-0.29.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.676** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ipswich** is **0.239.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **0.155** and for the **Ipswich** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-1** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.559.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Ipswich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
28% |
28% |
26% |
18% |

Ipswich |
25% |
37% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.48 |
3.48 |
2.35 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
4.57 |
2.81 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.16 |
3.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.94 |
3.04 |

Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
3.48 |
2.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.07 |
2.84 |

Un 2.5 |
3.56 |
2.73 |
2.83 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.16 |
3.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
4.13 |
2.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.81 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.07 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
6.52 |
2.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Oxford at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Oxford** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
3.91 |
2.51 |
14.3 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.66 |
-1.2 |

Oxford |
1.92 |
3.05 |
-19.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.08 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.92 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury (14.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Gillingham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** as a guest**.

Oxford,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Shrewsbury |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Crewe |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Accrington |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Mar |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.46** and for the **Oxford** is **0.476.**

The home dynamic for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.157** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oxford** is **0.046.**

The offensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.209** and for the **Oxford** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.356** and for the **Oxford** is **-0.648.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Oxford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |

Oxford |
29% |
37% |
24% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the guest team **Oxford ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |