2021 04 30 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Northampton vs Blackpool at 01 May 2021
Peterboro vs Lincoln at 01 May 2021
Swindon vs Ipswich at 01 May 2021
Shrewsbury vs Oxford at 01 May 2021
Plymouth vs Sunderland at 01 May 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Milton Keynes Dons at 01 May 2021
Rochdale vs Doncaster at 01 May 2021
Burton vs Gillingham at 01 May 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Crewe at 01 May 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth at 01 May 2021
Accrington vs Charlton at 01 May 2021
Hull vs Wigan at 01 May 2021


Northampton vs Blackpool at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

3.53

2.67

9.1

Draw

3.25

4.05

-6.1

Blackpool

2.12

2.64

-9.3

Over 2.5

2.21

1.79

10.6

Under 2.5

1.66

2.27

-16.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (9.1 %, 10.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 17 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Apr

Ipswich

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Apr

Peterboro

A

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Mar

Oxford

H

1

0

W

U

N


Blackpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Rochdale

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Accrington

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Gillingham

H

4

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Northampton is 0.071 and for the Blackpool is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Northampton is -0.569 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackpool is -0.056.
The offensive ability for the Northampton is 0.636 and for the Blackpool is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Northampton is -0.356 and for the Blackpool is 0.207.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

30%

23%

28%

19%

Blackpool

23%

38%

19%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 0.93 goals and Blackpool to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the guest team Blackpool to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.36 goals and Blackpool to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.27

1

6.06

2-3

2.17

2

4.85

4+

3.29

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.27

5

10.64

Ov 2.5

1.79

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.27

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.29

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.44

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.50

3.39

2.07

2-3 goals

2.16

5.41

2.84

4+ goals

2.79

3.30

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.37

4.32

2.88

Un 1.5

4.50

3.39

2.07

Ov 2.5

2.16

6.07

2.68

Un 2.5

3.79

2.86

2.59

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.30

2.95

Un 3.5

2.62

4.51

2.52

Goal-Goal

2.51

3.03

3.68

No Goal

2.88

6.68

1.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

4.91

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

3.06

6.68

2.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Peterboro vs Lincoln at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

2.08

2.35

-5.5

Draw

3.39

3.76

-2.9

Lincoln

3.45

3.26

1.7

Over 2.5

2.00

2.02

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.82

1.98

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lincoln (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 15 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 49 points, 74.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 15 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Apr

Charlton

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Gillingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Apr

Northampton

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Sunderland

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Accrington

H

7

0

W

O

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 13 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 44 points, 69.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Shrewsbury

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Hull

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Blackpool

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Mar

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Peterboro is 0.413 and for the Lincoln is 0.629.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.412 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is 0.716.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.573 and for the Lincoln is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is -0.333 and for the Lincoln is 0.612.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

25%

32%

26%

18%

Lincoln

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.44 goals and Lincoln to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.37 goals and Lincoln to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.86

1

5.41

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

4.03

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.50

2.91

2-3 goals

2.18

4.28

3.26

4+ goals

2.38

3.18

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.83

3.41

Un 1.5

2.70

3.50

2.91

Ov 2.5

1.96

6.32

3.02

Un 2.5

2.91

2.68

3.54

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.18

3.76

Un 3.5

2.33

3.97

3.13

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.73

3.90

No Goal

2.07

6.39

2.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.27

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.39

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Ipswich at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.96

2.60

4.7

Draw

3.33

3.82

-3.9

Ipswich

2.35

2.83

-7.2

Over 2.5

2.03

1.93

2.6

Under 2.5

1.79

2.07

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 20 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

5

L

O

N

20 Apr

Portsmouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Apr

Rochdale

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Peterboro

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

0

W

U

N


Ipswich in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Northampton

A

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Charlton

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

3

L

O

N

10 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Rochdale

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Swindon is -0.603 and for the Ipswich is -0.29.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.676 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is 0.239.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.155 and for the Ipswich is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -1 and for the Ipswich is 0.559.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

28%

28%

26%

18%

Ipswich

25%

37%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.11 goals and Ipswich to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.33 goals and Ipswich to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.05

1

5.68

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.72

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.48

3.48

2.35

2-3 goals

2.35

4.57

2.81

4+ goals

2.49

3.16

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.94

3.04

Un 1.5

3.48

3.48

2.35

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.07

2.84

Un 2.5

3.56

2.73

2.83

Ov 3.5

2.49

3.16

3.54

Un 3.5

2.64

4.13

2.64

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.81

3.78

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.07

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

6.52

2.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Oxford at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.91

2.51

14.3

Draw

3.50

3.66

-1.2

Oxford

1.92

3.05

-19.3

Over 2.5

2.02

2.08

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.80

1.92

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury (14.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 34.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Blackpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Wigan

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Apr

Oxford

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Gillingham

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N


Oxford in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Plymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Gillingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Crewe

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Accrington

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Sunderland

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Mar

Lincoln

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Shrewsbury is -0.46 and for the Oxford is 0.476.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.157 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oxford is 0.046.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.209 and for the Oxford is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.356 and for the Oxford is -0.648.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

26%

34%

24%

16%

Oxford

29%

37%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 0.91 goals and Oxford to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Oxford to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.31 goals and Oxford to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.76

1

5.21

2-3

2.01

2

3.94

4+

4.22

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.76

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5