# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newport County vs Cheltenham at 01 May 2021**** Stevenage vs Crawley Town at 01 May 2021**** Mansfield vs Oldham at 01 May 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Carlisle at 01 May 2021**** Forest Green vs Tranmere at 01 May 2021**** Colchester vs Salford at 01 May 2021**** Bradford vs Scunthorpe at 01 May 2021**** Bolton vs Exeter at 01 May 2021**** Barrow vs Southend at 01 May 2021**** Grimsby vs Port Vale at 01 May 2021**** Walsall vs Morecambe at 01 May 2021**** Harrogate vs Cambridge at 30 April 2021**

###
Newport County vs Cheltenham at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
2.98 |
2.82 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.66 |
-3.8 |

Cheltenham |
2.39 |
2.68 |
-4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.16 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.86 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newport County, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 12 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **0.294** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.468.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.078** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cheltenham** is **0.249.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.209** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.681.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.407** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.207.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
31% |
31% |
25% |
12% |

Cheltenham |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.24 |
3.28 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
4.42 |
2.65 |

4+ goals |
3.15 |
2.99 |
2.87 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.84 |
2.72 |

Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
3.28 |
2.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.16 |
2.41 |

Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.72 |
2.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
2.99 |
2.87 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.92 |
2.63 |

Goal-Goal |
3.09 |
2.67 |
3.31 |

No Goal |
2.61 |
5.78 |
2.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.15 |
2.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
5.78 |
2.36 |

####
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###
Stevenage vs Crawley Town at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
2.29 |
2.71 |
-6.8 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.68 |
-3.7 |

Crawley Town |
3.15 |
2.79 |
4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.17 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.86 |
-6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 47.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Salford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 36.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Stevenage** is **-0.127** and for the **Crawley Town** is **0.105.**

The home dynamic for the **Stevenage** is **-0.324** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crawley Town** is **0.036.**

The offensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **0.118** and for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **-0.333** and for the **Crawley Town** is **0.612.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
30% |
30% |
27% |
12% |

Crawley Town |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.24 |
3.20 |
2.64 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
4.60 |
2.80 |

4+ goals |
3.08 |
2.92 |
3.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.90 |
2.86 |

Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
3.20 |
2.64 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.07 |
2.53 |

Un 2.5 |
3.24 |
2.74 |
3.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.08 |
2.92 |
3.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.96 |
2.74 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.68 |
3.46 |

No Goal |
2.50 |
5.71 |
2.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.05 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
5.71 |
2.45 |

####
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###
Mansfield vs Oldham at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
1.93 |
2.29 |
-8.1 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.61 |
0.2 |

Oldham |
3.72 |
3.50 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.16 |
-14.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
1.86 |
9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Oldham, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.7 %, 9.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had 5 wins, 10 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 15 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Apr |
Colchester |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Mansfield** is **0.095** and for the **Oldham** is **0.073.**

The home dynamic for the **Mansfield** is **-0.451** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oldham** is **0.168.**

The offensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.182** and for the **Oldham** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **0.015** and for the **Oldham** is **-0.559.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
22% |
39% |
20% |
19% |

Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.78 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the home team **Mansfield ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.94 |
3.46 |

2-3 goals |
2.45 |
3.39 |
3.37 |

4+ goals |
2.10 |
3.81 |
3.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.51 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.94 |
3.46 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.85 |
2.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.47 |
4.26 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.10 |
3.81 |
3.81 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.57 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.57 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
1.86 |
6.68 |
3.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.44 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.68 |
3.10 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leyton Orient vs Carlisle at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leyton Orient** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **01 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leyton Orient |
3.01 |
2.53 |
6.3 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.65 |
-3.9 |

Carlisle |
2.40 |
3.02 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.22 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.82 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leyton Orient (6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** at home**.

Leyton Orient,** at home**, had 9 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Southend |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Walsall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.31** and for the **Carlisle** is **-0.097.**

The home dynamic for the **Leyton Orient** is **0** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Carlisle** is **-0.086.**

The offensive ability for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.3** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.385** and for the **Carlisle** is **-0.269.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leyton Orient** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leyton Orient |
29% |
30% |
27% |
13% |

Carlisle |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leyton Orient** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leyton Orient** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |