2021 04 30 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newport County vs Cheltenham at 01 May 2021
Stevenage vs Crawley Town at 01 May 2021
Mansfield vs Oldham at 01 May 2021
Leyton Orient vs Carlisle at 01 May 2021
Forest Green vs Tranmere at 01 May 2021
Colchester vs Salford at 01 May 2021
Bradford vs Scunthorpe at 01 May 2021
Bolton vs Exeter at 01 May 2021
Barrow vs Southend at 01 May 2021
Grimsby vs Port Vale at 01 May 2021
Walsall vs Morecambe at 01 May 2021
Harrogate vs Cambridge at 30 April 2021


Newport County vs Cheltenham at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

2.98

2.82

1.9

Draw

3.21

3.66

-3.8

Cheltenham

2.39

2.68

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.21

2.16

1.0

Under 2.5

1.64

1.86

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newport County, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 12 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

4

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Crawley Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Cambridge

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Carlisle

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Bolton

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Barrow

A

1

2

L

O

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Newport County is 0.294 and for the Cheltenham is 0.468.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cheltenham is 0.249.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is -0.209 and for the Cheltenham is 0.681.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is 0.407 and for the Cheltenham is 0.207.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

31%

31%

25%

12%

Cheltenham

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.04 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.19 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.51

1

5.05

2-3

2.04

2

3.95

4+

4.46

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.51

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.28

2.59

2-3 goals

2.52

4.42

2.65

4+ goals

3.15

2.99

2.87

Ov 1.5

2.69

3.84

2.72

Un 1.5

3.24

3.28

2.59

Ov 2.5

2.37

6.16

2.41

Un 2.5

3.38

2.72

2.97

Ov 3.5

3.15

2.99

2.87

Un 3.5

2.74

3.92

2.63

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.67

3.31

No Goal

2.61

5.78

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.15

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.69

5.78

2.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Stevenage vs Crawley Town at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

2.29

2.71

-6.8

Draw

3.24

3.68

-3.7

Crawley Town

3.15

2.79

4.1

Over 2.5

2.19

2.17

0.4

Under 2.5

1.67

1.86

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 47.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Salford

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Forest Green

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Newport County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Apr

Cheltenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bradford

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Oldham

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Mar

Carlisle

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Stevenage is -0.127 and for the Crawley Town is 0.105.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.324 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is 0.036.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.118 and for the Crawley Town is -0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.333 and for the Crawley Town is 0.612.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

30%

30%

27%

12%

Crawley Town

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.27 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.21 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.51

1

5.10

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.50

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.51

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.20

2.64

2-3 goals

2.35

4.60

2.80

4+ goals

3.08

2.92

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.90

2.86

Un 1.5

3.24

3.20

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.07

2.53

Un 2.5

3.24

2.74

3.06

Ov 3.5

3.08

2.92

3.00

Un 3.5

2.62

3.96

2.74

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.68

3.46

No Goal

2.50

5.71

2.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.05

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.71

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Mansfield vs Oldham at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

1.93

2.29

-8.1

Draw

3.63

3.61

0.2

Oldham

3.72

3.50

1.7

Over 2.5

1.64

2.16

-14.7

Under 2.5

2.25

1.86

9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Oldham, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 1.7 %, 9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had 5 wins, 10 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Salford

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Apr

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Mar

Forest Green

H

0

0

D

U

N


Oldham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 9 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 15 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Grimsby

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Harrogate

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Morecambe

A

3

4

L

O

G

09 Apr

Colchester

H

5

2

W

O

G

05 Apr

Crawley Town

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Mansfield is 0.095 and for the Oldham is 0.073.
The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.451 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oldham is 0.168.
The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.182 and for the Oldham is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is 0.015 and for the Oldham is -0.559.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

22%

39%

20%

19%

Oldham

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.78 goals and Oldham to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.35 goals and Oldham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.57

1

4.78

2-3

2.02

2

3.89

4+

4.44

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.57

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.94

3.46

2-3 goals

2.45

3.39

3.37

4+ goals

2.10

3.81

3.81

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.51

3.50

Un 1.5

2.19

3.94

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.91

7.85

2.88

Un 2.5

2.77

2.47

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.10

3.81

3.81

Un 3.5

2.35

3.57

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.57

3.78

No Goal

1.86

6.68

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

6.44

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

6.68

3.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Leyton Orient vs Carlisle at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leyton Orient and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leyton Orient

3.01

2.53

6.3

Draw

3.20

3.65

-3.9

Carlisle

2.40

3.02

-8.6

Over 2.5

2.09

2.22

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.72

1.82

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient (6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leyton Orient in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance at home.
Leyton Orient, at home, had 9 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Southend

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Cambridge

H

2

4

L

O

G

17 Apr

Barrow

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Harrogate

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Walsall

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Mansfield

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Oldham

H

2

1

W

O

G


Carlisle in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Harrogate

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Leyton Orient is -0.31 and for the Carlisle is -0.097.
The home dynamic for the Leyton Orient is 0 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.086.
The offensive ability for the Leyton Orient is 0.3 and for the Carlisle is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leyton Orient is -0.385 and for the Carlisle is -0.269.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leyton Orient and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leyton Orient

29%

30%

27%

13%

Carlisle

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.08 goals and Carlisle to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.25 goals and Carlisle to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.41

1

4.98

2-3

2.02

2

3.89

4+

4.67

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.41

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27