2021 04 30 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lille vs Nice at 01 May 2021
Paris SG vs Lens at 01 May 2021
Monaco vs Lyon at 02 May 2021
Bordeaux vs Rennes at 02 May 2021
Brest vs Nantes at 02 May 2021
Dijon vs Metz at 02 May 2021
Montpellier vs St Etienne at 02 May 2021
Nimes vs Reims at 02 May 2021
Lorient vs Angers at 02 May 2021
Marseille vs Strasbourg at 30 April 2021


Lille vs Nice at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lille and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lille

1.43

1.98

-19.4

Draw

4.57

3.85

4.1

Nice

7.69

4.24

10.6

Over 2.5

1.85

2.11

-6.7

Under 2.5

1.99

1.90

2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nice, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 10.6 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance at home.
Lille, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Lyon

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Monaco

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Marseille

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G


Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Montpellier

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Dijon

A

0

2

L

U

N

11 Apr

Reims

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Marseille

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lorient

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Lille is 0.484 and for the Nice is 0.435.
The home dynamic for the Lille is 0.373 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nice is -0.066.
The offensive ability for the Lille is 0.664 and for the Nice is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lille is -0.059 and for the Nice is -0.233.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lille and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lille

21%

31%

28%

20%

Nice

37%

36%

20%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lille to score 2.02 goals and Nice to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 1.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lille to score 1.46 goals and Nice to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.72

1

5.24

2-3

1.96

2

3.86

4+

4.52

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.72

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

3.45

3.45

2-3 goals

1.82

4.60

4.29

4+ goals

2.01

3.16

5.39

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.04

4.58

Un 1.5

2.38

3.45

3.45

Ov 2.5

1.65

6.76

4.04

Un 2.5

2.42

2.79

4.36

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.16

5.39

Un 3.5

1.98

4.13

3.96

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.75

4.87

No Goal

1.74

6.46

3.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

5.51

3.78

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

6.46

3.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Paris SG vs Lens at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.34

1.88

-21.4

Draw

5.61

4.00

7.2

Lens

8.32

4.59

9.8

Over 2.5

1.50

2.18

-20.8

Under 2.5

2.57

1.85

15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lens, Under 2.5 (7.2 %, 9.8 %, 15.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 11 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

St Etienne

H

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Strasbourg

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lyon

A

4

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Mar

Bordeaux

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Dijon

A

4

0

W

O

N


Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Brest

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Lorient

H

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Strasbourg

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

St Etienne

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Angers

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Paris SG is 0.508 and for the Lens is 0.653.
The home dynamic for the Paris SG is 0.588 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lens is 0.289.
The offensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.609 and for the Lens is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Paris SG is -1 and for the Lens is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

22%

25%

35%

18%

Lens

41%

35%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.52 goals and Lens to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 1.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.48 goals and Lens to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.65

1

5.49

2-3

1.92

2

3.75

4+

4.81

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.65

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

2.98

3.51

2-3 goals

1.54

5.98

5.42

4+ goals

2.26

2.93

4.62

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.61

5.16

Un 1.5

2.63

2.98

3.51

Ov 2.5

1.61

6.49

4.43

Un 2.5

2.19

3.02

4.70

Ov 3.5

2.26

2.93

4.62

Un 3.5

1.80

4.44

4.56

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.89

5.25

No Goal

1.70

5.92

4.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

5.21

4.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

5.92

3.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Monaco vs Lyon at 02 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 02 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

2.30

2.12

3.7

Draw

3.56

3.83

-2.0

Lyon

3.01

3.73

-6.4

Over 2.5

1.64

2.20

-15.5

Under 2.5

2.30

1.83

11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Monaco, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monaco in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance at home.
Monaco, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 38 points, 74.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Metz

H

4

0

W

O

N

19 Mar

St Etienne

A

4

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lille

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Brest

H

2

0

W

U

N


Lyon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 9 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Lille

H

2

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Lens

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Paris SG

H

2

4

L

O

G

12 Mar

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Monaco is 1 and for the Lyon is 0.105.
The home dynamic for the Monaco is 0.402 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is 0.868.
The offensive ability for the Monaco is 0.664 and for the Lyon is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monaco is 1 and for the Lyon is -0.586.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

26%

25%

36%

13%

Lyon

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.59 goals and Lyon to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.36 goals and Lyon to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.61

1

5.43

2-3

1.94

2

3.73

4+

4.81

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

2.98

2.98

2-3 goals

1.66

5.66

4.52

4+ goals

2.97

2.70

3.41

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.30

4.13

Un 1.5

3.04

2.98

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.83

5.91

3.50

Un 2.5

2.44

2.96

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.97

2.70

3.41

Un 3.5

1.98

4.30

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.82

4.51

No Goal

1.95

5.66

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

4.97

3.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.66

3.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bordeaux vs Rennes at 02 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 02 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bordeaux

4.54

2.57

16.9

Draw

3.76

3.48

2.1

Rennes

1.77

3.09

-24.1

Over 2.5

1.96

2.56

-12.0

Under 2.5

1.88

1.64

7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.9 %, 2.1 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bordeaux in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance at home.
Bordeaux, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Lorient

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Apr

Monaco

H

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

St Etienne

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Strasbourg

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Montpellier

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Dijon

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Paris SG

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G


Rennes in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Dijon

H

5

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Nantes

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Reims

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Strasbourg

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Mar

Marseille

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Lyon

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Bordeaux is -0.706 and for the Rennes is 1.
The home dynamic for the Bordeaux is -0.206 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rennes is 0.168.
The offensive ability for the Bordeaux is 0.545 and for the Rennes is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bordeaux is -1 and for the Rennes is 0.172.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bordeaux and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bordeaux

29%

37%

24%

10%

Rennes

36%

36%

13%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 0.84 goals and Rennes to score 1.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Rennes to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.13 goals and Rennes to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

2.87

1

4.13

2-3

2.12

2

3.85

4+

5.52

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.87

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-