2021 04 30 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Everton vs Aston Villa at 01 May 2021
Crystal Palace vs Man City at 01 May 2021
Chelsea vs Fulham at 01 May 2021
Brighton vs Leeds at 01 May 2021
Newcastle vs Arsenal at 02 May 2021
Man United vs Liverpool at 02 May 2021
Tottenham vs Sheffield United at 02 May 2021
West Brom vs Wolves at 03 May 2021
Burnley vs West Ham at 03 May 2021
Southampton vs Leicester at 30 April 2021


Everton vs Aston Villa at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

2.04

2.94

-15.0

Draw

3.60

3.92

-2.3

Aston Villa

3.63

2.47

12.9

Over 2.5

1.91

1.89

0.6

Under 2.5

1.92

2.13

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (12.9 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Apr

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Apr

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Burnley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Mar

West Brom

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Southampton

H

1

0

W

U

N


Aston Villa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

West Brom

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Apr

Man City

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Fulham

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Wolves

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Everton is -0.024 and for the Aston Villa is -0.29.
The home dynamic for the Everton is -0.461 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aston Villa is 0.299.
The offensive ability for the Everton is 0.245 and for the Aston Villa is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is -0.259 and for the Aston Villa is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

32%

25%

29%

14%

Aston Villa

24%

32%

23%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.53 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.25 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.10

1

6.06

2-3

2.10

2

4.42

4+

3.57

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.10

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.00

3.09

2.35

2-3 goals

2.38

5.95

2.43

4+ goals

3.50

2.92

2.69

Ov 1.5

2.70

4.30

2.52

Un 1.5

4.00

3.09

2.35

Ov 2.5

2.54

5.52

2.36

Un 2.5

3.56

2.96

2.63

Ov 3.5

3.50

2.92

2.69

Un 3.5

2.76

4.53

2.40

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.91

3.16

No Goal

2.92

6.18

2.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

4.50

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.95

6.18

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crystal Palace vs Man City at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crystal Palace

9.93

4.83

10.6

Draw

5.12

4.18

4.4

Man City

1.34

1.80

-19.1

Over 2.5

1.73

1.92

-5.7

Under 2.5

2.15

2.08

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 4.4 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Apr

Leicester

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Chelsea

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Tottenham

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 Mar

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G


Man City in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 12 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 39 points, 81.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Apr

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Crystal Palace is -0.325 and for the Man City is 0.476.
The home dynamic for the Crystal Palace is -0.402 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 1.
The offensive ability for the Crystal Palace is 0.664 and for the Man City is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.407 and for the Man City is -0.207.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crystal Palace

40%

30%

25%

5%

Man City

17%

30%

27%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 0.53 goals and Man City to score 2.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 0.95 goals and Man City to score 1.62 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.17

1

5.85

2-3

1.96

2

4.17

4+

3.98

3

3.72

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.17

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.62

3.48

2.02

2-3 goals

4.01

5.66

1.74

4+ goals

8.96

3.14

1.76

Ov 1.5

4.90

4.47

1.75

Un 1.5

4.62

3.48

2.02

Ov 2.5

4.64

6.50

1.59

Un 2.5

5.05

3.02

2.12

Ov 3.5

8.96

3.14

1.76

Un 3.5

4.18

4.71

1.82

Goal-Goal

4.83

2.92

2.22

No Goal

4.84

7.29

1.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.95

5.09

1.82

NG+Un 2.5

4.11

7.29

1.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chelsea vs Fulham at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chelsea and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chelsea

1.48

1.78

-11.4

Draw

4.25

4.02

1.3

Fulham

7.48

5.26

5.6

Over 2.5

2.03

2.13

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.81

1.89

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Fulham (1.3 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance at home.
Chelsea, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

West Ham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Crystal Palace

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N


Fulham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Apr

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Wolves

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Aston Villa

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Mar

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Man City

H

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Chelsea is 0.444 and for the Fulham is -0.492.
The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.167 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is -0.066.
The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.182 and for the Fulham is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.333 and for the Fulham is -0.674.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chelsea and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chelsea

16%

34%

30%

20%

Fulham

41%

36%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.84 goals and Fulham to score 0.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.26 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.55 goals and Fulham to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.86

1

5.13

2-3

1.89

2

3.68

4+

4.69

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.86

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.88

4.05

4.54

2-3 goals

1.67

4.31

5.96

4+ goals

2.01

3.44

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.02

5.54

Un 1.5

1.88

4.05

4.54

Ov 2.5

1.57

7.60

4.32

Un 2.5

2.03

2.84

6.48

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.44

4.73

Un 3.5

1.73

4.22

5.40

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.70

5.10

No Goal

1.46

7.84

5.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.08

3.85

NG+Un 2.5

1.56

7.84

4.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brighton vs Leeds at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brighton

2.17

2.44

-5.1

Draw

3.43

3.79

-2.8

Leeds

3.40

3.06

3.3

Over 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.92

2.00

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leeds (3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brighton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Everton

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

West Brom

A

0

1

L

U

N


Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 8 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Apr

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Man City

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Sheffield United

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Mar

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

West Ham

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Brighton is -0.008 and for the Leeds is 0.613.
The home dynamic for the Brighton is -0.637 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is -0.096.
The offensive ability for the Brighton is -0.364 and for the Leeds is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brighton is 0.015 and for the Leeds is -0.207.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brighton

26%

32%

25%

18%

Leeds

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.48 goals and Leeds to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.35 goals and Leeds to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.79

1

5.38

2-3

2.09

2

4.22

4+

3.89

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.79

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-