2021 04 30 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Verona vs Spezia at 01 May 2021
Milan vs Benevento at 01 May 2021
Crotone vs Inter at 01 May 2021
Udinese vs Juventus at 02 May 2021
Sassuolo vs Atalanta at 02 May 2021
Sampdoria vs Roma at 02 May 2021
Lazio vs Genoa at 02 May 2021
Bologna vs Fiorentina at 02 May 2021
Napoli vs Cagliari at 02 May 2021
Torino vs Parma at 03 May 2021


Verona vs Spezia at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

2.10

2.48

-7.3

Draw

3.55

3.77

-1.6

Spezia

3.47

3.02

4.3

Over 2.5

1.90

2.15

-6.1

Under 2.5

1.96

1.87

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Under 2.5 (4.3 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Verona in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance at home.
Verona, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Fiorentina

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Sampdoria

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Atalanta

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Sassuolo

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N


Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 29.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Verona is -0.683 and for the Spezia is -0.153.
The home dynamic for the Verona is -0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spezia is -0.228.
The offensive ability for the Verona is -0.209 and for the Spezia is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Verona is -0.704 and for the Spezia is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Verona and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Verona

26%

37%

20%

17%

Spezia

35%

28%

26%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Verona to score 1.52 goals and Spezia to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Verona to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Verona to score 1.27 goals and Spezia to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.40

1

4.95

2-3

2.09

2

4.17

4+

4.42

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.40

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.20

4.03

2-3 goals

2.60

4.70

2.48

4+ goals

2.51

3.18

3.48

Ov 1.5

2.57

4.08

2.73

Un 1.5

2.28

3.20

4.03

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.55

2.45

Un 2.5

2.68

2.75

3.79

Ov 3.5

2.51

3.18

3.48

Un 3.5

2.47

3.98

2.91

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.76

2.99

No Goal

2.02

5.66

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

5.30

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

5.66

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Milan vs Benevento at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milan and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milan

1.36

2.07

-25.2

Draw

5.11

3.57

8.4

Benevento

8.51

4.22

11.9

Over 2.5

1.56

2.05

-15.3

Under 2.5

2.38

1.95

9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Benevento, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 11.9 %, 9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milan in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance at home.
Milan, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Apr

Lazio

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Apr

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Genoa

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Parma

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Napoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N


Benevento in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Udinese

H

2

4

L

O

G

21 Apr

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Lazio

A

3

5

L

O

G

12 Apr

Sassuolo

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Juventus

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fiorentina

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Spezia

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Milan is 0.167 and for the Benevento is -0.339.
The home dynamic for the Milan is -0.069 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benevento is -0.218.
The offensive ability for the Milan is 0.518 and for the Benevento is 0.681.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milan is -1 and for the Benevento is -0.674.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milan

26%

14%

43%

17%

Benevento

43%

20%

29%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 2.39 goals and Benevento to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 1.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.51 goals and Benevento to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.85

0-1

4.46

1

9.01

2-3

1.97

2

3.46

4+

3.72

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.46

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

1.72

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.86

1.98

4.23

2-3 goals

1.48

18.81

3.68

4+ goals

3.28

1.92

5.72

Ov 1.5

1.83

4.65

4.20

Un 1.5

3.86

1.98

4.23

Ov 2.5

2.03

3.49

4.52

Un 2.5

2.11

3.66

3.95

Ov 3.5

3.28

1.92

5.72

Un 3.5

1.83

5.23

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.52

4.90

No Goal

1.84

5.13

3.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

2.81

4.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

5.13

3.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crotone vs Inter at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

11.35

3.61

18.9

Draw

6.68

3.94

10.4

Inter

1.24

2.13

-33.7

Over 2.5

1.36

1.95

-22.2

Under 2.5

3.10

2.05

16.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.9 %, 10.4 %, 16.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Parma

A

4

3

W

O

G

21 Apr

Sampdoria

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Udinese

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Spezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Napoli

A

3

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Bologna

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Mar

Lazio

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G


Inter in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 10 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Spezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Torino

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Mar

Atalanta

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Crotone is -0.579 and for the Inter is 0.79.
The home dynamic for the Crotone is -0.637 and the dynamic as a guest for the Inter is 0.766.
The offensive ability for the Crotone is 0.545 and for the Inter is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Inter is 0.172.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

40%

18%

36%

6%

Inter

26%

24%

25%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 0.55 goals and Inter to score 2.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.52 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 2.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.09 goals and Inter to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

4.02

1

6.90

2-3

2.07

2

4.20

4+

3.76

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.71

Un 1.5

4.02

5

9.80

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.08

2.39

2.59

2-3 goals

2.44

10.76

2.01

4+ goals

8.58

2.56

2.03

Ov 1.5

3.28

5.03

2.02

Un 1.5

5.08

2.39

2.59

Ov 2.5

3.79

4.92

1.88

Un 2.5

3.41

3.27

2.50

Ov 3.5

8.58

2.56

2.03

Un 3.5

2.97

4.92

2.18

Goal-Goal

3.76

2.98

2.51

No Goal

3.47

5.34

1.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.38

3.84

2.25

NG+Un 2.5

3.09

5.34

2.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Udinese vs Juventus at 02 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 02 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

6.66

2.77

21.1

Draw

4.52

3.72

4.8

Juventus

1.49

2.70

-30.1

Over 2.5

1.67

2.00

-9.9

Under 2.5

2.26

2.00

5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Udinese, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.1 %, 4.8 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Benevento

A

4

2

W

O

G

21 Apr

Cagliari

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Sassuolo

H

2

0

W

U

N


Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Parma

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Genoa

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Apr

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Benevento

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Udinese is -0.206 and for the Juventus is 0.435.
The home dynamic for the Udinese is -0.137 and the dynamic as a guest for the Juventus is 0.472.
The offensive ability for the Udinese is -0.182 and for the Juventus is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Udinese is -1 and for the Juventus is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

27%

36%

21%

16%

Juventus

27%

34%

20%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 0.72 goals and Juventus to score 2.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.27 goals and Juventus to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.77

1

5.24

2-3

2.11

2

4.26

4+

3.82

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.77

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.13