2021 04 30 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cremonese vs Reggina at 01 May 2021
Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 01 May 2021
Venezia vs Chievo at 01 May 2021
Salernitana vs Monza at 01 May 2021
Reggiana vs Pordenone at 01 May 2021
Ascoli vs Empoli at 01 May 2021
Frosinone vs Pisa at 01 May 2021
Cosenza vs Pescara at 01 May 2021
Brescia vs Spal at 01 May 2021
Lecce vs Cittadella at 01 May 2021


Cremonese vs Reggina at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cremonese and Reggina for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cremonese

2.19

2.53

-6.1

Draw

2.95

3.48

-5.2

Reggina

3.43

3.15

2.6

Over 2.5

2.38

2.32

1.1

Under 2.5

1.55

1.76

-7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggina, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cremonese in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance at home.
Cremonese, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Monza

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Empoli

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Pordenone

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Cosenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Mar

Ascoli

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N


Reggina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance as a guest.
Reggina, as a guest, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Vicenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Cittadella

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Venezia

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Brescia

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Monza

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Cremonese is 0.365 and for the Reggina is 0.532.
The home dynamic for the Cremonese is -0.324 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reggina is 0.036.
The offensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.636 and for the Reggina is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cremonese is -0.111 and for the Reggina is -0.181.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cremonese and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cremonese

25%

39%

23%

13%

Reggina

32%

38%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.23 goals and Reggina to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.23 goals and Reggina to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.36

1

4.57

2-3

2.00

2

3.70

4+

5.00

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.36

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.77

3.10

2-3 goals

2.52

3.36

3.27

4+ goals

2.74

3.39

2.94

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.37

3.17

Un 1.5

2.42

3.77

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.16

7.31

2.51

Un 2.5

2.91

2.49

3.92

Ov 3.5

2.74

3.39

2.94

Un 3.5

2.48

3.50

3.21

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.47

3.54

No Goal

2.07

6.15

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

6.17

2.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

6.15

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Virtus Entella vs Vicenza at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

3.47

2.79

7.0

Draw

3.17

3.51

-3.1

Vicenza

2.33

2.81

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.17

2.24

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.73

1.81

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Pescara

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Salernitana

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Pordenone

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Ascoli

H

0

0

D

U

N


Vicenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance as a guest.
Vicenza, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Reggina

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Pescara

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Empoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Mar

Chievo

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.619 and for the Vicenza is -0.177.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.686 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vicenza is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -0.573 and for the Vicenza is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -1 and for the Vicenza is -0.269.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

27%

39%

24%

11%

Vicenza

28%

38%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1 goals and Vicenza to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the guest team Vicenza to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.19 goals and Vicenza to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.52

1

4.78

2-3

1.98

2

3.72

4+

4.76

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.79

2.81

2-3 goals

2.69

3.47

2.94

4+ goals

3.39

3.23

2.53

Ov 1.5

2.86

3.39

2.81

Un 1.5

2.63

3.79

2.81

Ov 2.5

2.44

6.88

2.25

Un 2.5

3.16

2.50

3.52

Ov 3.5

3.39

3.23

2.53

Un 3.5

2.67

3.57

2.89

Goal-Goal

3.45

2.50

3.22

No Goal

2.30

6.29

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.88

2.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

6.29

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Chievo at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.31

2.28

0.6

Draw

2.97

3.58

-5.7

Chievo

3.14

3.53

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.20

2.28

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.65

1.78

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Cosenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Monza

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Lecce

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N


Chievo in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Apr

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Apr

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Reggina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Lecce

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Venezia is -0.103 and for the Chievo is 0.073.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is 0.265 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chievo is -0.056.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.609 and for the Chievo is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is -0.63 and for the Chievo is -0.269.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

24%

35%

27%

14%

Chievo

33%

39%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.25 goals and Chievo to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.31 goals and Chievo to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.45

1

4.76

2-3

1.97

2

3.72

4+

4.98

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.45

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.62

3.12

2-3 goals

2.12

3.74

3.85

4+ goals

2.48

3.24

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.58

3.73

Un 1.5

2.48

3.62

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.90

7.10

3.01

Un 2.5

2.71

2.59

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.24

3.47

Un 3.5

2.24

3.69

3.55

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.56

4.11

No Goal

1.95

6.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.97

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.16

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salernitana vs Monza at 01 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 01 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.74

2.35

6.1

Draw

2.96

3.34

-3.8

Monza

2.63

3.62

-10.4

Over 2.5

2.14

2.52

-7.0

Under 2.5

1.70

1.66

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 10 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Venezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Virtus Entella

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Frosinone

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Lecce

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Cittadella

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Cremonese

A

1

0

W

U

N


Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Apr

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Ascoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Pescara

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Venezia

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Salernitana is 0.651 and for the Monza is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Salernitana is 0.235 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monza is 0.523.
The offensive ability for the Salernitana is 0.273 and for the Monza is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salernitana is 0.281 and for the Monza is -0.674.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

24%

42%

19%

15%

Monza

34%

41%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.14 goals and Monza to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.25 goals and Monza to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.12

1

4.15

2-3

2.00

2

3.56

4+

5.65

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.12

5

25.00

Ov 2.5

2.52

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.22