# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Stuttgart vs Augsburg at 07 May 2021**** Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 at 08 May 2021**** Werder Bremen vs Leverkusen at 08 May 2021**** Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin at 08 May 2021**** Dortmund vs RB Leipzig at 08 May 2021**** Bayern Munich vs M’gladbach at 08 May 2021**** Hertha vs Bielefeld at 09 May 2021**** FC Koln vs Freiburg at 09 May 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Mainz at 09 May 2021**

###
Stuttgart vs Augsburg at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stuttgart** and **Augsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stuttgart |
2.16 |
2.05 |
2.5 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.97 |
-3.4 |

Augsburg |
3.38 |
3.83 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.82 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.22 |
-1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stuttgart (2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** at home**.

Stuttgart,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Augsburg** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Augsburg** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Augsburg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.68** and for the **Augsburg** is **-0.636.**

The home dynamic for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.113** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Augsburg** is **-0.364.**

The offensive ability for the **Stuttgart** is **0.217** and for the **Augsburg** is **-0.834.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.652** and for the **Augsburg** is **-0.591.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stuttgart** and the red line for guest team, **Augsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stuttgart |
19% |
31% |
23% |
27% |

Augsburg |
32% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.41 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.36 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.41 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |

NoG |
2.25 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.29 |
3.78 |
3.34 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.21 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.73 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.01 |
4.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.78 |
3.34 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.89 |
3.55 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.60 |
4.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.73 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
4.06 |
3.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.88 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
1.75 |
7.42 |
3.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.54 |
3.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.42 |
3.18 |

####
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###
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hoffenheim** and **Schalke 04** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hoffenheim |
1.25 |
1.62 |
-18.3 |

Draw |
6.43 |
4.52 |
6.6 |

Schalke 04 |
12.31 |
6.17 |
8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.73 |
-12.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.37 |
7.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 8.1 %, 7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** at home**.

Hoffenheim,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** as a guest**.

Schalke 04,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Apr |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Augsburg |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.024** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.778.**

The home dynamic for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.311** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.803.**

The offensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.217** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.865.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.217** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.591.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hoffenheim** and the red line for guest team, **Schalke 04. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hoffenheim |
12% |
26% |
29% |
32% |

Schalke 04 |
36% |
40% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **2.82 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.33** goals in the game and the home team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **2.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.87** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
5.26 |

1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
3.50 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.10 |
Un 1.5 |
5.26 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
2.26 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
4.22 |
3.80 |

2-3 goals |
1.52 |
4.94 |
7.11 |

4+ goals |
1.60 |
4.11 |
7.49 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |
4.61 |
7.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.22 |
3.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
8.14 |
6.35 |

Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.82 |
5.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.60 |
4.11 |
7.49 |

Un 3.5 |
1.63 |
4.73 |
5.76 |

Goal-Goal |
1.86 |
3.17 |
6.80 |

No Goal |
1.39 |
9.84 |
5.54 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
6.38 |
5.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.57 |
9.84 |
4.48 |

####
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###
Werder Bremen vs Leverkusen at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Werder Bremen** and **Leverkusen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Werder Bremen |
4.28 |
3.06 |
9.3 |

Draw |
3.75 |
3.82 |
-0.5 |

Leverkusen |
1.83 |
2.43 |
-13.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.87 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.15 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen (9.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** at home**.

Werder Bremen,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** as a guest**.

Leverkusen,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Bielefeld |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Werder Bremen** is **-1** and for the **Leverkusen** is **0.244.**

The home dynamic for the **Werder Bremen** is **-0.708** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leverkusen** is **0.167.**

The offensive ability for the **Werder Bremen** is **0.217** and for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.347.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Werder Bremen** is **-1** and for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Werder Bremen** and the red line for guest team, **Leverkusen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Werder Bremen |
28% |
35% |
22% |
15% |

Leverkusen |
23% |
33% |
23% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the guest team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.26 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.47 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.26 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |

NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.73 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.98 |
4.10 |
2.38 |

4+ goals |
3.35 |
3.47 |
2.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.11 |
3.84 |
2.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.73 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
6.43 |
2.09 |

Un 2.5 |
3.52 |
2.60 |
3.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.35 |
3.47 |
2.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.97 |
2.44 |

Goal-Goal |
3.49 |
2.80 |
2.80 |

No Goal |
2.64 |
7.00 |
2.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
5.33 |
2.22 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.64 |
7.00 |
2.27 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolfsburg** and **Union Berlin** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolfsburg |
1.78 |
1.98 |
-5.7 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.95 |
-1.4 |

Union Berlin |
4.65 |
4.15 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.82 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.21 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** at home**.

Wolfsburg,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 68.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Stuttgart |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Schalke 04 |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** as a guest**.

Union Berlin,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Stuttgart |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
FC Koln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.016** and for the **Union Berlin** is **0.067.**

The home dynamic for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.632** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Union Berlin** is **-0.068.**

The offensive ability for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.539** and for the **Union Berlin** is **0.482.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wolfsburg** is **-0.652** and for the **Union Berlin** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolfsburg** and the red line for guest team, **Union Berlin. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolfsburg |
17% |
30% |
29% |
24% |

Union Berlin |
30% |
40% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolfsburg** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolfsburg** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
4.74 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.51 |

3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.49 |
Un 1.5 |
4.74 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |

Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.51 |