2021 05 07 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stuttgart vs Augsburg at 07 May 2021
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 at 08 May 2021
Werder Bremen vs Leverkusen at 08 May 2021
Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin at 08 May 2021
Dortmund vs RB Leipzig at 08 May 2021
Bayern Munich vs M’gladbach at 08 May 2021
Hertha vs Bielefeld at 09 May 2021
FC Koln vs Freiburg at 09 May 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Mainz at 09 May 2021


Stuttgart vs Augsburg at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

2.16

2.05

2.5

Draw

3.50

3.97

-3.4

Augsburg

3.38

3.83

-3.5

Over 2.5

1.74

1.82

-2.5

Under 2.5

2.14

2.22

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart (2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Wolfsburg

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Dortmund

H

2

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Bayern Munich

A

0

4

L

O

N

14 Mar

Hoffenheim

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

1

D

U

G


Augsburg in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Apr

FC Koln

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Schalke 04

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Freiburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

M’gladbach

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hertha

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Stuttgart is -0.68 and for the Augsburg is -0.636.
The home dynamic for the Stuttgart is -0.113 and the dynamic as a guest for the Augsburg is -0.364.
The offensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.217 and for the Augsburg is -0.834.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stuttgart is -0.652 and for the Augsburg is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

19%

31%

23%

27%

Augsburg

32%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.6 goals and Augsburg to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.57 goals and Augsburg to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.41

1

5.99

2-3

2.10

2

4.48

4+

3.36

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.41

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

3.36

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

3.78

3.34

2-3 goals

2.00

4.21

3.81

4+ goals

1.99

3.73

4.38

Ov 1.5

1.99

4.01

4.01

Un 1.5

2.29

3.78

3.34

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.89

3.55

Un 2.5

2.63

2.60

4.25

Ov 3.5

1.99

3.73

4.38

Un 3.5

2.09

4.06

3.64

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.88

4.24

No Goal

1.75

7.42

3.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.54

3.38

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

7.42

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hoffenheim

1.25

1.62

-18.3

Draw

6.43

4.52

6.6

Schalke 04

12.31

6.17

8.1

Over 2.5

1.43

1.73

-12.1

Under 2.5

2.84

2.37

7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 8.1 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wolfsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Freiburg

A

0

4

L

O

N

11 Apr

Augsburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Wolfsburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

05 Mar

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Hoffenheim is -0.024 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.778.
The home dynamic for the Hoffenheim is -0.311 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.803.
The offensive ability for the Hoffenheim is 0.217 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.865.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.217 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hoffenheim

12%

26%

29%

32%

Schalke 04

36%

40%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 2.82 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.33 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 2.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.81 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.26

1

6.90

2-3

1.93

2

4.29

4+

3.42

3

3.50

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

5.10

Un 1.5

5.26

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.73

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.36

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.42

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.22

3.80

2-3 goals

1.52

4.94

7.11

4+ goals

1.60

4.11

7.49

Ov 1.5

1.55

4.61

7.24

Un 1.5

2.00

4.22

3.80

Ov 2.5

1.39

8.14

6.35

Un 2.5

2.09

2.82

5.96

Ov 3.5

1.60

4.11

7.49

Un 3.5

1.63

4.73

5.76

Goal-Goal

1.86

3.17

6.80

No Goal

1.39

9.84

5.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.51

6.38

5.52

NG+Un 2.5

1.57

9.84

4.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Werder Bremen vs Leverkusen at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

4.28

3.06

9.3

Draw

3.75

3.82

-0.5

Leverkusen

1.83

2.43

-13.5

Over 2.5

1.81

1.87

-1.8

Under 2.5

2.03

2.15

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen (9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

3

L

O

G

21 Apr

Mainz

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Dortmund

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

RB Leipzig

H

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Stuttgart

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Wolfsburg

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Bayern Munich

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Mar

Bielefeld

A

2

0

W

U

N


Leverkusen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

M’gladbach

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Werder Bremen is -1 and for the Leverkusen is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Werder Bremen is -0.708 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leverkusen is 0.167.
The offensive ability for the Werder Bremen is 0.217 and for the Leverkusen is -0.347.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Werder Bremen is -1 and for the Leverkusen is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

28%

35%

22%

15%

Leverkusen

23%

33%

23%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 0.93 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.25 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.26

1

5.81

2-3

2.10

2

4.35

4+

3.47

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.26

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.47

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.73

2.58

2-3 goals

2.98

4.10

2.38

4+ goals

3.35

3.47

2.42

Ov 1.5

3.11

3.84

2.39

Un 1.5

2.90

3.73

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.74

6.43

2.09

Un 2.5

3.52

2.60

3.02

Ov 3.5

3.35

3.47

2.42

Un 3.5

2.95

3.97

2.44

Goal-Goal

3.49

2.80

2.80

No Goal

2.64

7.00

2.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

5.33

2.22

NG+Un 2.5

2.64

7.00

2.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolfsburg and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolfsburg

1.78

1.98

-5.7

Draw

3.74

3.95

-1.4

Union Berlin

4.65

4.15

2.6

Over 2.5

1.88

1.82

1.8

Under 2.5

1.95

2.21

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance at home.
Wolfsburg, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 68.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Dortmund

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Stuttgart

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Bayern Munich

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

A

3

4

L

O

G

03 Apr

FC Koln

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Werder Bremen

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Schalke 04

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Hoffenheim

A

1

2

L

O

G


Union Berlin in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance as a guest.
Union Berlin, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Werder Bremen

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Stuttgart

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

A

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

FC Koln

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Bielefeld

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Wolfsburg is 0.016 and for the Union Berlin is 0.067.
The home dynamic for the Wolfsburg is 0.632 and the dynamic as a guest for the Union Berlin is -0.068.
The offensive ability for the Wolfsburg is 0.539 and for the Union Berlin is 0.482.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolfsburg is -0.652 and for the Union Berlin is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolfsburg and the red line for guest team, Union Berlin.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolfsburg

17%

30%

29%

24%

Union Berlin

30%

40%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.72 goals and Union Berlin to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.59 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.23

0-1

4.74

1

6.29

2-3

1.98

2

4.13

4+

3.51

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.49

Un 1.5

4.74

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.21

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.51