# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Blackburn vs Birmingham at 08 May 2021**** Middlesbrough vs Wycombe at 08 May 2021**** Watford vs Swansea at 08 May 2021**** Reading vs Huddersfield at 08 May 2021**** QPR vs Luton at 08 May 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Preston at 08 May 2021**** Barnsley vs Norwich at 08 May 2021**** Coventry vs Millwall at 08 May 2021**** Cardiff vs Rotherham at 08 May 2021**** Bournemouth vs Stoke at 08 May 2021**** Derby vs Sheffield Weds at 08 May 2021**** Bristol City vs Brentford at 08 May 2021**

###
Blackburn vs Birmingham at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackburn** and **Birmingham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackburn |
1.97 |
2.01 |
-1.0 |

Draw |
3.57 |
3.69 |
-0.9 |

Birmingham |
3.75 |
4.35 |
-3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.16 |
-6.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.86 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** at home**.

Blackburn,** at home**, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 47.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Huddersfield |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Birmingham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Derby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Blackburn** is **0.12** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.36.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackburn** is **-0.075** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Birmingham** is **0.144.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **0.278** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.067.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackburn** is **-1** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.043.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackburn** and the red line for guest team, **Birmingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackburn |
19% |
36% |
23% |
21% |

Birmingham |
35% |
42% |
14% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackburn** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Blackburn ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.17 |
4.06 |
3.41 |

2-3 goals |
1.97 |
3.30 |
5.27 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
4.29 |
4.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
3.55 |
4.89 |

Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
4.06 |
3.41 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
8.90 |
3.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.44 |
4.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.29 |
4.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.53 |
4.41 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.57 |
5.04 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
7.00 |
3.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.15 |
3.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.00 |
3.56 |

####
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###
Middlesbrough vs Wycombe at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Middlesbrough** and **Wycombe** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Middlesbrough |
1.79 |
1.85 |
-1.8 |

Draw |
3.78 |
3.98 |
-1.3 |

Wycombe |
4.25 |
4.83 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.02 |
-6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.98 |
1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** at home**.

Middlesbrough,** at home**, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 56.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
QPR |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** as a guest**.

Wycombe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 21.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Swansea |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Luton |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.136** and for the **Wycombe** is **0.209.**

The home dynamic for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.189** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wycombe** is **-0.371.**

The offensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.652** and for the **Wycombe** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **-1** and for the **Wycombe** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Middlesbrough** and the red line for guest team, **Wycombe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Middlesbrough |
17% |
31% |
30% |
22% |

Wycombe |
36% |
41% |
15% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.21 |
3.92 |
3.42 |

2-3 goals |
1.69 |
4.18 |
5.94 |

4+ goals |
1.93 |
3.64 |
4.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.00 |
5.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.92 |
3.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.73 |
4.54 |

Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.70 |
5.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.64 |
4.85 |

Un 3.5 |
1.82 |
4.10 |
4.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.80 |
5.57 |

No Goal |
1.59 |
7.58 |
4.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
6.31 |
4.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.58 |
3.87 |

####
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###
Watford vs Swansea at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Swansea** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
2.07 |
1.98 |
2.2 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.85 |
-3.0 |

Swansea |
3.54 |
4.27 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.13 |
-0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.88 |
-4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Watford (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 18 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 56 points, 84.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 21 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Luton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Reading |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** as a guest**.

Swansea,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Reading |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
QPR |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Millwall |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Preston |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Birmingham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.24** and for the **Swansea** is **0.378.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.321** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Swansea** is **0.242.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.157** and for the **Swansea** is **0.513.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.191** and for the **Swansea** is **-0.33.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Swansea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
22% |
31% |
26% |
22% |

Swansea |
37% |
41% |
12% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Swansea** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Swansea** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.53 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.49 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
3.93 |
5.64 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
4.17 |
3.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.82 |
4.00 |
4.97 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.49 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
8.69 |
4.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.57 |
4.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.17 |
3.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.76 |
4.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.25 |
2.75 |
5.19 |

No Goal |
1.76 |
6.25 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.81 |
3.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.25 |
3.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Reading vs Huddersfield at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
2.01 |
1.97 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.62 |
3.88 |
-1.9 |

Huddersfield |
3.54 |
4.26 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.99 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.01 |
1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reading, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 12 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 59.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Swansea |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Luton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Apr |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Derby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 25.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Apr |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Reading** is **-0.144** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.413.**

The home dynamic for the **Reading** is **0.019** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.318.**

The offensive ability for the **Reading** is **0.243** and for the **Huddersfield** is **0.14.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reading** is **-0.591** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.304.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
19% |
31% |
31% |
19% |

Huddersfield |
34% |
39% |
19% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Reading ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Reading ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |