2021 05 07 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackburn vs Birmingham at 08 May 2021
Middlesbrough vs Wycombe at 08 May 2021
Watford vs Swansea at 08 May 2021
Reading vs Huddersfield at 08 May 2021
QPR vs Luton at 08 May 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Preston at 08 May 2021
Barnsley vs Norwich at 08 May 2021
Coventry vs Millwall at 08 May 2021
Cardiff vs Rotherham at 08 May 2021
Bournemouth vs Stoke at 08 May 2021
Derby vs Sheffield Weds at 08 May 2021
Bristol City vs Brentford at 08 May 2021


Blackburn vs Birmingham at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

1.97

2.01

-1.0

Draw

3.57

3.69

-0.9

Birmingham

3.75

4.35

-3.7

Over 2.5

1.88

2.16

-6.9

Under 2.5

1.93

1.86

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 8 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 47.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Rotherham

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Huddersfield

H

5

2

W

O

G

20 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Apr

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Cardiff

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Apr

Bournemouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G


Birmingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Cardiff

H

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Derby

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Stoke

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Apr

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Swansea

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Watford

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Blackburn is 0.12 and for the Birmingham is 0.36.
The home dynamic for the Blackburn is -0.075 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.144.
The offensive ability for the Blackburn is 0.278 and for the Birmingham is 0.067.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -1 and for the Birmingham is 0.043.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

19%

36%

23%

21%

Birmingham

35%

42%

14%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.58 goals and Birmingham to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.46 goals and Birmingham to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.62

1

4.81

2-3

2.00

2

3.83

4+

4.48

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.62

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

4.06

3.41

2-3 goals

1.97

3.30

5.27

4+ goals

1.89

4.29

4.21

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.55

4.89

Un 1.5

2.17

4.06

3.41

Ov 2.5

1.60

8.90

3.83

Un 2.5

2.57

2.44

4.97

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.29

4.21

Un 3.5

2.04

3.53

4.41

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.57

5.04

No Goal

1.68

7.00

3.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

7.15

3.58

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

7.00

3.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Middlesbrough vs Wycombe at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

1.79

1.85

-1.8

Draw

3.78

3.98

-1.3

Wycombe

4.25

4.83

-2.8

Over 2.5

1.78

2.02

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.03

1.98

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Rotherham

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

QPR

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Barnsley

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Bournemouth

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Millwall

A

0

1

L

U

N


Wycombe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Cardiff

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Apr

Bristol City

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Swansea

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Luton

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Rotherham

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Middlesbrough is 0.136 and for the Wycombe is 0.209.
The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is -0.189 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wycombe is -0.371.
The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 0.652 and for the Wycombe is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -1 and for the Wycombe is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

17%

31%

30%

22%

Wycombe

36%

41%

15%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.75 goals and Wycombe to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.56 goals and Wycombe to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.12

1

5.52

2-3

1.91

2

3.83

4+

4.29

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.12

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

3.92

3.42

2-3 goals

1.69

4.18

5.94

4+ goals

1.93

3.64

4.85

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.00

5.56

Un 1.5

2.21

3.92

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.73

4.54

Un 2.5

2.30

2.70

5.14

Ov 3.5

1.93

3.64

4.85

Un 3.5

1.82

4.10

4.82

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.80

5.57

No Goal

1.59

7.58

4.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

6.31

4.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

7.58

3.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Watford vs Swansea at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

2.07

1.98

2.2

Draw

3.45

3.85

-3.0

Swansea

3.54

4.27

-4.8

Over 2.5

2.10

2.13

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.75

1.88

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Watford (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 18 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 56 points, 84.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 21 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Brentford

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Millwall

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Norwich

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Luton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Reading

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Middlesbrough

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Birmingham

H

3

0

W

O

N


Swansea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance as a guest.
Swansea, as a guest, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

Reading

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Apr

QPR

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wycombe

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Apr

Sheffield Weds

A

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Millwall

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Birmingham

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Watford is 0.24 and for the Swansea is 0.378.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.321 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is 0.242.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 0.157 and for the Swansea is 0.513.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.191 and for the Swansea is -0.33.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

22%

31%

26%

22%

Swansea

37%

41%

12%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.41 goals and Swansea to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.47 goals and Swansea to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.53

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

4.44

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.53

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.49

3.18

2-3 goals

1.76

3.93

5.64

4+ goals

1.97

4.17

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.00

4.97

Un 1.5

2.50

3.49

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.57

8.69

4.01

Un 2.5

2.55

2.57

4.57

Ov 3.5

1.97

4.17

3.95

Un 3.5

1.97

3.76

4.40

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.75

5.19

No Goal

1.76

6.25

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

6.81

3.87

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.25

3.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reading vs Huddersfield at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reading

2.01

1.97

1.0

Draw

3.62

3.88

-1.9

Huddersfield

3.54

4.26

-4.8

Over 2.5

1.77

1.99

-6.2

Under 2.5

2.07

2.01

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading, Under 2.5 (1 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reading in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 12 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 39 points, 59.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Norwich

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Apr

Swansea

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Apr

Luton

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Apr

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Derby

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Barnsley

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G


Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 25.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Blackburn

A

2

5

L

O

G

21 Apr

Barnsley

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Nott’m Forest

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Bournemouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Rotherham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Apr

Norwich

A

0

7

L

O

N

03 Apr

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Reading is -0.144 and for the Huddersfield is -0.413.
The home dynamic for the Reading is 0.019 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.318.
The offensive ability for the Reading is 0.243 and for the Huddersfield is 0.14.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reading is -0.591 and for the Huddersfield is -0.304.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reading

19%

31%

31%

19%

Huddersfield

34%

39%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.63 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Reading to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.51 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Reading to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.18

1

5.68

2-3

1.93

2

3.86

4+

4.17

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.18

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-