2021 05 07 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Woking vs Chesterfield at 08 May 2021
Torquay vs Bromley at 08 May 2021
Wealdstone vs Dag and Red at 08 May 2021
Wrexham vs Yeovil at 08 May 2021
King’s Lynn vs Solihull at 08 May 2021
Altrincham vs Eastleigh at 08 May 2021
Hartlepool vs Maidenhead at 08 May 2021
Barnet vs Notts County at 08 May 2021
Halifax vs Boreham Wood at 08 May 2021
Sutton vs Weymouth at 08 May 2021


Woking vs Chesterfield at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

5.21

2.83

16.1

Draw

3.69

3.64

0.4

Chesterfield

1.62

2.69

-24.6

Over 2.5

2.00

2.00

0.0

Under 2.5

1.79

2.00

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking, Draw (16.1 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 36.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Dag and Red

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 May

Weymouth

H

2

4

L

O

G

27 Apr

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Wrexham

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Apr

Bromley

H

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

0

D

U

N


Chesterfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 52.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Apr

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Woking is -1 and for the Chesterfield is -0.591.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.123 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.136.
The offensive ability for the Woking is -0.07 and for the Chesterfield is -0.005.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is -1 and for the Chesterfield is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

23%

41%

22%

14%

Chesterfield

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 0.74 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Chesterfield to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.26 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.03

1

5.35

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.03

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.30

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

4.07

3.10

2-3 goals

2.99

3.57

2.59

4+ goals

3.20

3.42

2.53

Ov 1.5

3.06

3.52

2.57

Un 1.5

2.32

4.07

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.64

6.74

2.11

Un 2.5

3.06

2.50

3.66

Ov 3.5

3.20

3.42

2.53

Un 3.5

2.73

3.72

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.68

2.65

2.85

No Goal

2.18

7.11

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.77

5.77

2.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

7.11

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Bromley at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.04

2.23

-4.2

Draw

3.33

3.83

-3.9

Bromley

3.43

3.44

-0.1

Over 2.5

1.92

2.00

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.83

2.00

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Chesterfield

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 May

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Apr

Aldershot

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Apr

Woking

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wrexham

A

1

0

W

U

N


Bromley in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Woking

A

4

3

W

O

G

10 Apr

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Wealdstone

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Torquay is 0.984 and for the Bromley is 0.76.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is -0.104 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.182.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is 1 and for the Bromley is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is 0.13 and for the Bromley is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

25%

30%

25%

21%

Bromley

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.47 goals and Bromley to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.42 goals and Bromley to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.85

1

5.49

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.33

2.95

2-3 goals

2.06

4.56

3.40

4+ goals

2.14

3.36

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.05

3.65

Un 1.5

2.77

3.33

2.95

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.59

3.34

Un 2.5

2.87

2.70

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.36

4.25

Un 3.5

2.26

4.04

3.23

Goal-Goal

2.46

2.82

4.18

No Goal

2.03

6.21

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.37

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.21

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Dag and Red at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

8.55

2.94

22.3

Draw

5.16

3.65

8.0

Dag and Red

1.33

2.59

-36.6

Over 2.5

1.65

2.02

-11.1

Under 2.5

2.24

1.98

5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Draw, Under 2.5 (22.3 %, 8 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Stockport

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 May

Yeovil

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Aldershot

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Apr

Maidenhead

H

0

6

L

O

N

17 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

7

L

O

G

10 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G


Dag and Red in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Woking

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 May

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Solihull

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Eastleigh

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Bromley

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Aldershot

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Dag and Red is 0.876.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.302 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dag and Red is -0.015.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is -0.678 and for the Dag and Red is 0.617.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Dag and Red is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

25%

40%

22%

13%

Dag and Red

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 0.58 goals and Dag and Red to score 2.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Dag and Red to win by 1.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.23 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.98

1

5.35

2-3

2.01

2

3.97

4+

4.00

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.92

2.95

2-3 goals

3.07

3.66

2.49

4+ goals

3.29

3.38

2.50

Ov 1.5

3.14

3.56

2.49

Un 1.5

2.46

3.92

2.95

Ov 2.5

2.71

6.70

2.08

Un 2.5

3.20

2.51

3.45

Ov 3.5

3.29

3.38

2.50

Un 3.5

2.84

3.74

2.63

Goal-Goal

3.72

2.66

2.82

No Goal

2.32

6.89

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.81

5.70

2.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.89

2.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Yeovil at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.08

2.08

0.0

Draw

3.28

3.92

-5.0

Yeovil

3.33

3.77

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.01

1.97

1.0

Under 2.5

1.77

2.03

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 57.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Solihull

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Chesterfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Woking

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Apr

Halifax

A

4

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Stockport

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N


Yeovil in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Halifax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 May

Wealdstone

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Solihull

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Solihull

A

1

5

L

O

G

17 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.464 and for the Yeovil is 0.342.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.236 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.098.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.278 and for the Yeovil is 0.451.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.13 and for the Yeovil is 0.191.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

23%

28%

26%

23%

Yeovil

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.41 goals and Yeovil to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.48 goals and Yeovil to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.88

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.26

4+

3.88

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.88

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-