# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sociedad vs Elche at 07 May 2021**** Cadiz vs Huesca at 08 May 2021**** Alaves vs Levante at 08 May 2021**** Barcelona vs Ath Madrid at 08 May 2021**** Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna at 08 May 2021**** Getafe vs Eibar at 09 May 2021**** Valencia vs Valladolid at 09 May 2021**** Villarreal vs Celta at 09 May 2021**

###
Sociedad vs Elche at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sociedad** and **Elche** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sociedad |
1.52 |
1.98 |
-15.3 |

Draw |
4.05 |
3.98 |
0.4 |

Elche |
7.68 |
4.12 |
11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.01 |
1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Elche, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 11.3 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** at home**.

Sociedad,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Apr |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Apr |
Celta |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Valencia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Apr |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Barcelona |
H |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Granada |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** as a guest**.

Elche,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 19.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Betis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Mar |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sociedad** is **0.08** and for the **Elche** is **-0.378.**

The home dynamic for the **Sociedad** is **0.075** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Elche** is **-0.591.**

The offensive ability for the **Sociedad** is **0.539** and for the **Elche** is **-0.005.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sociedad** is **-0.565** and for the **Elche** is **-0.565.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sociedad** and the red line for guest team, **Elche. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sociedad |
21% |
29% |
27% |
22% |

Elche |
38% |
33% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **1.22** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Elche** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
5.04 |
4.22 |

4+ goals |
2.12 |
3.37 |
4.32 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.32 |
4.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.79 |
3.73 |

Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.82 |
4.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.37 |
4.32 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.22 |
4.04 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.86 |
4.35 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
6.31 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.34 |
3.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
6.31 |
3.68 |

####
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###
Cadiz vs Huesca at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cadiz** and **Huesca** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cadiz |
3.66 |
2.21 |
17.9 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.73 |
-4.2 |

Huesca |
2.19 |
3.57 |
-17.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.01 |
8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.99 |
-13.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cadiz, Over 2.5 (17.9 %, 8.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cadiz** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cadiz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance** at home**.

Cadiz,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 May |
Granada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Apr |
Celta |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** as a guest**.

Huesca,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 23.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Apr |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Elche |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Levante |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Mar |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cadiz** is **0.416** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.04.**

The home dynamic for the **Cadiz** is **-0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huesca** is **-0.409.**

The offensive ability for the **Cadiz** is **0.217** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.451.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cadiz** is **0.191** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cadiz** and the red line for guest team, **Huesca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cadiz |
22% |
34% |
23% |
21% |

Huesca |
30% |
39% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cadiz** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the guest team **Huesca ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cadiz** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Cadiz ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.84 |
2.95 |

2-3 goals |
2.20 |
3.66 |
3.68 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.78 |
4.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.70 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.84 |
2.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
7.42 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.50 |
3.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.78 |
4.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.72 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.70 |
4.27 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
6.84 |
2.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.09 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.84 |
2.84 |

####
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###
Alaves vs Levante at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Alaves** and **Levante** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Alaves |
2.15 |
2.19 |
-0.8 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.79 |
-3.0 |

Levante |
3.50 |
3.58 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.01 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.99 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Alaves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alaves** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance** at home**.

Alaves,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Celta |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** as a guest**.

Levante,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Apr |
Celta |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Mar |
Betis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Alaves** is **0.08** and for the **Levante** is **-0.84.**

The home dynamic for the **Alaves** is **-0.528** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Levante** is **-0.212.**

The offensive ability for the **Alaves** is **0.191** and for the **Levante** is **-0.938.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Alaves** is **-0.278** and for the **Levante** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Alaves** and the red line for guest team, **Levante. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Alaves |
22% |
33% |
24% |
21% |

Levante |
32% |
37% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Alaves** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Alaves ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Alaves** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Alaves ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.65 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.98 |
3.65 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.59 |
4.05 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.83 |
3.78 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.65 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
7.10 |
3.27 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.59 |
3.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.59 |
4.05 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.86 |
3.45 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.74 |
4.16 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
6.63 |
3.10 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.79 |
3.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.63 |
2.98 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barcelona vs Ath Madrid at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barcelona** and **Ath Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barcelona |
1.82 |
2.22 |
-9.9 |

Draw |
3.78 |
3.85 |
-0.5 |

Ath Madrid |
4.71 |
3.44 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.99 |
-3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.01 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ath Madrid (7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** at home**.

Barcelona,** at home**, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 72.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 May |
Valencia |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Apr |
Granada |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Villarreal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Getafe |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Real Madrid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Mar |
Huesca |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Ath Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Madrid,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Elche |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Eibar |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Barcelona** is **0.44** and for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.253.**

The home dynamic for the **Barcelona** is **0.594** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.583.**

The offensive ability for the **Barcelona** is **1** and for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.617.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Barcelona** is **-0.678** and for the **Ath Madrid** is **0.243.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barcelona** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barcelona |
23% |
30% |
27% |
20% |

Ath Madrid |
33% |
34% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barcelona** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Barcelona ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barcelona** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Ath Madrid** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |