2021 05 07 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sociedad vs Elche at 07 May 2021
Cadiz vs Huesca at 08 May 2021
Alaves vs Levante at 08 May 2021
Barcelona vs Ath Madrid at 08 May 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna at 08 May 2021
Getafe vs Eibar at 09 May 2021
Valencia vs Valladolid at 09 May 2021
Villarreal vs Celta at 09 May 2021


Sociedad vs Elche at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

1.52

1.98

-15.3

Draw

4.05

3.98

0.4

Elche

7.68

4.12

11.3

Over 2.5

2.08

2.01

1.7

Under 2.5

1.79

1.99

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 11.3 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Huesca

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Celta

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Sevilla

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Apr

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Barcelona

H

1

6

L

O

G

14 Mar

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N


Elche in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 19.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Sociedad is 0.08 and for the Elche is -0.378.
The home dynamic for the Sociedad is 0.075 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.591.
The offensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.539 and for the Elche is -0.005.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad is -0.565 and for the Elche is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

21%

29%

27%

22%

Elche

38%

33%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.81 goals and Elche to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.5 goals and Elche to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.80

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.18

4+

4.07

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.25

3.76

2-3 goals

1.77

5.04

4.22

4+ goals

2.12

3.37

4.32

Ov 1.5

1.88

4.32

4.25

Un 1.5

2.35

3.25

3.76

Ov 2.5

1.71

6.79

3.73

Un 2.5

2.35

2.82

4.56

Ov 3.5

2.12

3.37

4.32

Un 3.5

1.94

4.22

4.04

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.86

4.35

No Goal

1.71

6.31

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

5.34

3.48

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

6.31

3.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Cadiz vs Huesca at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cadiz

3.66

2.21

17.9

Draw

3.22

3.73

-4.2

Huesca

2.19

3.57

-17.7

Over 2.5

2.41

2.01

8.3

Under 2.5

1.58

1.99

-13.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (17.9 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cadiz in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Granada

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Apr

Celta

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G


Huesca in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 23.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Sociedad

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Getafe

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Apr

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Apr

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Osasuna

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Mar

Barcelona

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Cadiz is 0.416 and for the Huesca is -0.04.
The home dynamic for the Cadiz is -0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huesca is -0.409.
The offensive ability for the Cadiz is 0.217 and for the Huesca is -0.451.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cadiz is 0.191 and for the Huesca is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cadiz

22%

34%

23%

21%

Huesca

30%

39%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 0.88 goals and Huesca to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the guest team Huesca to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.43 goals and Huesca to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Cadiz to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.89

1

5.26

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.89

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.84

2.95

2-3 goals

2.20

3.66

3.68

4+ goals

2.02

3.78

4.15

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.70

3.83

Un 1.5

2.50

3.84

2.95

Ov 2.5

1.78

7.42

3.29

Un 2.5

2.92

2.50

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.78

4.15

Un 3.5

2.29

3.72

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.70

4.27

No Goal

1.93

6.84

2.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

6.09

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

6.84

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Alaves vs Levante at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alaves

2.15

2.19

-0.8

Draw

3.40

3.79

-3.0

Levante

3.50

3.58

-0.6

Over 2.5

1.99

2.01

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.85

1.99

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alaves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Eibar

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Villarreal

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Celta

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G


Levante in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Celta

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Villarreal

H

1

5

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Mar

Betis

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Alaves is 0.08 and for the Levante is -0.84.
The home dynamic for the Alaves is -0.528 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.212.
The offensive ability for the Alaves is 0.191 and for the Levante is -0.938.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Alaves is -0.278 and for the Levante is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alaves

22%

33%

24%

21%

Levante

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.45 goals and Levante to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.43 goals and Levante to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.86

1

5.32

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.98

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.65

3.12

2-3 goals

2.11

3.98

3.65

4+ goals

2.11

3.59

4.05

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.83

3.78

Un 1.5

2.47

3.65

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.81

7.10

3.27

Un 2.5

2.77

2.59

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.59

4.05

Un 3.5

2.22

3.86

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.74

4.16

No Goal

1.90

6.63

3.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.79

3.19

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.63

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Barcelona vs Ath Madrid at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.82

2.22

-9.9

Draw

3.78

3.85

-0.5

Ath Madrid

4.71

3.44

7.8

Over 2.5

1.87

1.99

-3.2

Under 2.5

2.01

2.01

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Madrid (7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 72.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Valencia

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Getafe

H

5

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Sociedad

A

6

1

W

O

G

15 Mar

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G


Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Elche

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Apr

Huesca

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Eibar

H

5

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Alaves

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Getafe

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Barcelona is 0.44 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.253.
The home dynamic for the Barcelona is 0.594 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Madrid is 0.583.
The offensive ability for the Barcelona is 1 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.617.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barcelona is -0.678 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

23%

30%

27%

20%

Ath Madrid

33%

34%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.74 goals and Ath Madrid to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.42 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.88

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

3.91

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.88

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-