2021 05 07 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sunderland vs Northampton at 09 May 2021
Portsmouth vs Accrington at 09 May 2021
Oxford vs Burton at 09 May 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Rochdale at 09 May 2021
Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon at 09 May 2021
Ipswich vs Fleetwood Town at 09 May 2021
Charlton vs Hull at 09 May 2021
Blackpool vs Bristol Rvs at 09 May 2021
Gillingham vs Plymouth at 09 May 2021
Wigan vs Swindon at 09 May 2021
Doncaster vs Peterboro at 09 May 2021
Crewe vs Shrewsbury at 09 May 2021


Sunderland vs Northampton at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.58

1.92

-11.2

Draw

3.99

3.89

0.6

Northampton

5.60

4.50

4.4

Over 2.5

1.85

2.15

-7.5

Under 2.5

1.95

1.87

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Northampton, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 4.4 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 9 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Plymouth

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Apr

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Accrington

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Apr

Hull

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Wigan

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Charlton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Peterboro

A

1

1

D

U

G


Northampton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 22.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Blackpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Apr

Ipswich

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Apr

Peterboro

A

1

3

L

O

G

10 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Sunderland is -0.216 and for the Northampton is -0.378.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.151 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is -0.182.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.217 and for the Northampton is 0.067.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is -1 and for the Northampton is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

17%

36%

28%

19%

Northampton

39%

35%

16%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.85 goals and Northampton to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.49 goals and Northampton to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.70

1

4.93

2-3

1.96

2

3.79

4+

4.57

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.70

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.89

4.03

4.50

2-3 goals

1.81

3.99

5.06

4+ goals

2.26

3.53

3.65

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.84

4.53

Un 1.5

1.89

4.03

4.50

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.52

3.48

Un 2.5

2.12

2.74

6.14

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.53

3.65

Un 3.5

1.84

4.01

4.85

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.65

4.26

No Goal

1.52

7.42

4.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.05

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

1.61

7.42

4.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Accrington at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.56

2.28

-20.2

Draw

4.15

3.75

2.6

Accrington

5.59

3.39

11.6

Over 2.5

1.78

2.06

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.05

1.95

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Accrington, Under 2.5 (2.6 %, 11.6 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Apr

Accrington

A

3

3

D

O

G

24 Apr

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Swindon

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Crewe

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N


Accrington in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 40.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Apr

Portsmouth

H

3

3

D

O

G

24 Apr

Sunderland

A

3

3

D

O

G

20 Apr

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rochdale

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Apr

Oxford

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Portsmouth is 0.144 and for the Accrington is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is -0.236 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is 0.136.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.33 and for the Accrington is 0.617.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.278 and for the Accrington is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

23%

33%

26%

18%

Accrington

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.93 goals and Accrington to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 1.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.38 goals and Accrington to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.79

1

5.29

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.15

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.52

3.11

2-3 goals

2.14

4.20

3.40

4+ goals

2.36

3.21

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.82

3.51

Un 1.5

2.54

3.52

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.49

3.04

Un 2.5

2.76

2.66

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.21

3.77

Un 3.5

2.26

3.94

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.70

3.90

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.39

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.39

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oxford vs Burton at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

1.66

2.35

-17.7

Draw

4.02

3.69

2.2

Burton

4.70

3.29

9.1

Over 2.5

1.71

2.08

-10.4

Under 2.5

2.13

1.92

5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Burton, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 9.1 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Shrewsbury

A

3

2

W

O

G

24 Apr

Plymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Gillingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Shrewsbury

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Crewe

A

6

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Accrington

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Sunderland

A

1

3

L

O

G


Burton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had 8 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Apr

Fleetwood Town

H

5

2

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Plymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Apr

Doncaster

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Apr

Portsmouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Oxford is 0.784 and for the Burton is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.038 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is 0.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is 1 and for the Burton is 0.554.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.678 and for the Burton is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

24%

34%

25%

17%

Burton

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.89 goals and Burton to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.35 goals and Burton to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.75

1

5.21

2-3

2.02

2

3.95

4+

4.20

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.56

3.07

2-3 goals

2.26

4.03

3.22

4+ goals

2.38

3.22

3.72

Ov 1.5

2.30

3.73

3.37

Un 1.5

2.54

3.56

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.99

6.50

2.92

Un 2.5

2.86

2.63

3.71

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.22

3.72

Un 3.5

2.35

3.85

3.17

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.66

3.78

No Goal

2.03

6.35

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.43

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.35

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Milton Keynes Dons vs Rochdale at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milton Keynes Dons

1.72

2.20

-12.7

Draw

3.96

3.68

1.9

Rochdale

4.35

3.65

4.4

Over 2.5

1.72

2.17

-12.1

Under 2.5

2.12

1.85

6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 4.4 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 10 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 19 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Swindon

H

5

0

W

O

N

20 Apr

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Lincoln

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Doncaster

H

1

0

W

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 34.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Doncaster

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Apr

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

3

D

O

G

24 Apr

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Accrington

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.48 and for the Rochdale is 0.298.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.038 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is -0.008.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.33 and for the Rochdale is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.539 and for the Rochdale is -0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milton Keynes Dons

21%

37%

24%

17%

Rochdale

35%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.84 goals and Rochdale to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.37 goals and Rochdale to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.57

1

4.88

2-3

2.00

2

3.85

4+

4.61

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.57

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-