# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Salford vs Leyton Orient at 08 May 2021**** Cambridge vs Grimsby at 08 May 2021**** Carlisle vs Walsall at 08 May 2021**** Cheltenham vs Harrogate at 08 May 2021**** Crawley Town vs Bolton at 08 May 2021**** Exeter vs Barrow at 08 May 2021**** Morecambe vs Bradford at 08 May 2021**** Port Vale vs Mansfield at 08 May 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Stevenage at 08 May 2021**** Southend vs Newport County at 08 May 2021**** Tranmere vs Colchester at 08 May 2021**** Oldham vs Forest Green at 08 May 2021**

###
Salford vs Leyton Orient at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
1.58 |
2.52 |
-23.6 |

Draw |
3.88 |
3.68 |
1.4 |

Leyton Orient |
5.76 |
3.01 |
15.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.17 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.86 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Leyton Orient (1.4 %, 15.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 10 wins, 11 draws, one defeat and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 40.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Carlisle |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Southend |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Walsall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Mansfield |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Salford** is **0.28** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.636.**

The home dynamic for the **Salford** is **0.34** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.242.**

The offensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.13** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.617.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Salford** is **0.565** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
29% |
30% |
28% |
13% |

Leyton Orient |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
3.19 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
4.62 |
3.09 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
2.91 |
3.25 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.91 |
3.14 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
3.19 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.05 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.75 |
3.27 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
2.91 |
3.25 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.97 |
2.96 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.69 |
3.73 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
5.70 |
2.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.07 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.70 |
2.62 |

####
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###
Cambridge vs Grimsby at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cambridge** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cambridge |
1.51 |
2.19 |
-20.6 |

Draw |
4.00 |
3.73 |
1.8 |

Grimsby |
6.36 |
3.64 |
11.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.07 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.93 |
-5.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Grimsby (1.8 %, 11.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** at home**.

Cambridge,** at home**, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Apr |
Harrogate |
A |
4 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Cambridge** is **-0.136** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.049.**

The home dynamic for the **Cambridge** is **0.217** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Grimsby** is **-0.356.**

The offensive ability for the **Cambridge** is **0.565** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.171.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cambridge** is **-0.626** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.539.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cambridge** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cambridge |
22% |
34% |
25% |
19% |

Grimsby |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.70 |
3.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.10 |
3.94 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.37 |
4.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.74 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.70 |
3.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.89 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.61 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.37 |
4.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.85 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.67 |
4.11 |

No Goal |
1.85 |
6.66 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.70 |
3.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.66 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Carlisle vs Walsall at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.72 |
2.33 |
-15.2 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.65 |
-0.8 |

Walsall |
4.96 |
3.37 |
9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.21 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.83 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 60.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Apr |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 13 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Salford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Forest Green |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Carlisle** is **0.12** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.067.**

The home dynamic for the **Carlisle** is **0.009** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **0.159.**

The offensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **-0.043** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.036.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **-0.33** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
26% |
32% |
27% |
15% |

Walsall |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.38 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.16 |
3.49 |

4+ goals |
2.43 |
3.10 |
3.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.77 |
3.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.38 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.57 |
3.08 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.67 |
3.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.10 |
3.75 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.83 |
3.28 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.63 |
4.08 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.91 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.48 |
3.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.91 |
2.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cheltenham vs Harrogate at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.64 |
2.36 |
-18.6 |

Draw |
4.03 |
3.68 |
2.4 |

Harrogate |
5.63 |
3.28 |
12.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.17 |
-3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Harrogate (2.4 %, 12.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 12 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Apr |
Cambridge |
H |
5 |
4 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cheltenham** is **0.216** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.067.**

The home dynamic for the **Cheltenham** is **-0.085** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Harrogate** is **0.03.**

The offensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.191** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.513.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.104** and for the **Harrogate** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
26% |
32% |
27% |
15% |

Harrogate |
32% |
37% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.74 |