2021 05 07 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Salford vs Leyton Orient at 08 May 2021
Cambridge vs Grimsby at 08 May 2021
Carlisle vs Walsall at 08 May 2021
Cheltenham vs Harrogate at 08 May 2021
Crawley Town vs Bolton at 08 May 2021
Exeter vs Barrow at 08 May 2021
Morecambe vs Bradford at 08 May 2021
Port Vale vs Mansfield at 08 May 2021
Scunthorpe vs Stevenage at 08 May 2021
Southend vs Newport County at 08 May 2021
Tranmere vs Colchester at 08 May 2021
Oldham vs Forest Green at 08 May 2021


Salford vs Leyton Orient at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

1.58

2.52

-23.6

Draw

3.88

3.68

1.4

Leyton Orient

5.76

3.01

15.9

Over 2.5

2.10

2.17

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.74

1.86

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leyton Orient (1.4 %, 15.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 10 wins, 11 draws, one defeat and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Colchester

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Apr

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Tranmere

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Stevenage

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Forest Green

A

2

0

W

U

N


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 40.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Carlisle

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Apr

Southend

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Cambridge

H

2

4

L

O

G

17 Apr

Barrow

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Harrogate

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Walsall

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Mansfield

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Salford is 0.28 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.636.
The home dynamic for the Salford is 0.34 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is -0.242.
The offensive ability for the Salford is -0.13 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.617.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salford is 0.565 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

29%

30%

28%

13%

Leyton Orient

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.69 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.26 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.52

1

5.13

2-3

2.02

2

3.92

4+

4.52

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

3.19

2.76

2-3 goals

2.18

4.62

3.09

4+ goals

2.87

2.91

3.25

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.91

3.14

Un 1.5

3.09

3.19

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.11

6.05

2.77

Un 2.5

3.03

2.75

3.27

Ov 3.5

2.87

2.91

3.25

Un 3.5

2.44

3.97

2.96

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.69

3.73

No Goal

2.32

5.70

2.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.07

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.43

5.70

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cambridge vs Grimsby at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

1.51

2.19

-20.6

Draw

4.00

3.73

1.8

Grimsby

6.36

3.64

11.7

Over 2.5

2.05

2.07

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.75

1.93

-5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Grimsby (1.8 %, 11.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cambridge in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Harrogate

A

4

5

L

O

G

24 Apr

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Leyton Orient

A

4

2

W

O

G

17 Apr

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Exeter

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Tranmere

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Mar

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 19 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Exeter

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Apr

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Morecambe

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Bolton

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Cheltenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Cambridge is -0.136 and for the Grimsby is 0.049.
The home dynamic for the Cambridge is 0.217 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is -0.356.
The offensive ability for the Cambridge is 0.565 and for the Grimsby is 0.171.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cambridge is -0.626 and for the Grimsby is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

22%

34%

25%

19%

Grimsby

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.75 goals and Grimsby to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.41 goals and Grimsby to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.80

1

5.21

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.24

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.80

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.70

3.25

2-3 goals

2.10

3.94

3.70

4+ goals

2.21

3.37

4.00

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.74

3.79

Un 1.5

2.37

3.70

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.89

3.21

Un 2.5

2.66

2.61

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.37

4.00

Un 3.5

2.19

3.85

3.53

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.67

4.11

No Goal

1.85

6.66

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.70

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.66

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Walsall at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.72

2.33

-15.2

Draw

3.55

3.65

-0.8

Walsall

4.96

3.37

9.5

Over 2.5

2.23

2.21

0.4

Under 2.5

1.65

1.83

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 20 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Leyton Orient

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Apr

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Harrogate

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Apr

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Barrow

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Apr

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 4 wins, 13 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 37.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Morecambe

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Salford

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Tranmere

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Forest Green

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Apr

Harrogate

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Carlisle is 0.12 and for the Walsall is -0.067.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is 0.159.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is -0.043 and for the Walsall is -0.036.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -0.33 and for the Walsall is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

26%

32%

27%

15%

Walsall

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.53 goals and Walsall to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.31 goals and Walsall to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.48

1

4.95

2-3

2.00

2

3.85

4+

4.67

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.48

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.38

2.96

2-3 goals

2.11

4.16

3.49

4+ goals

2.43

3.10

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.20

3.77

3.56

Un 1.5

2.73

3.38

2.96

Ov 2.5

1.91

6.57

3.08

Un 2.5

2.85

2.67

3.65

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.10

3.75

Un 3.5

2.30

3.83

3.28

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.63

4.08

No Goal

2.07

5.91

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.48

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

5.91

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cheltenham vs Harrogate at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.64

2.36

-18.6

Draw

4.03

3.68

2.4

Harrogate

5.63

3.28

12.7

Over 2.5

2.01

2.17

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.84

1.86

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Harrogate (2.4 %, 12.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 12 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 62.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Apr

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Grimsby

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Tranmere

H

4

0

W

O

N


Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Cambridge

H

5

4

W

O

G

24 Apr

Carlisle

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Oldham

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Leyton Orient

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Port Vale

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Apr

Walsall

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Cheltenham is 0.216 and for the Harrogate is 0.067.
The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is -0.085 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.03.
The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.191 and for the Harrogate is 0.513.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.104 and for the Harrogate is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

26%

32%

27%

15%

Harrogate

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.74 goals and Harrogate to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.31 goals and Harrogate to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.55

1

5.03

2-3

2.01

2

3.89

4+

4.55

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.55

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74