2021 05 07 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lens vs Lille at 07 May 2021
Nantes vs Bordeaux at 08 May 2021
Lyon vs Lorient at 08 May 2021
Reims vs Monaco at 09 May 2021
Strasbourg vs Montpellier at 09 May 2021
Angers vs Dijon at 09 May 2021
Rennes vs Paris SG at 09 May 2021
Nice vs Brest at 09 May 2021
Metz vs Nimes at 09 May 2021
St Etienne vs Marseille at 09 May 2021


Lens vs Lille at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

3.96

2.60

13.2

Draw

3.48

3.56

-0.6

Lille

1.97

2.99

-17.3

Over 2.5

2.13

2.54

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.74

1.65

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lens, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Brest

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Lorient

H

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Strasbourg

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Metz

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

St Etienne

A

3

2

W

O

G


Lille in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 12 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 40 points, 78.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Nice

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Lyon

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Monaco

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Marseille

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Lens is 0.384 and for the Lille is 0.671.
The home dynamic for the Lens is -0.198 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lille is 0.75.
The offensive ability for the Lens is 1 and for the Lille is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lens is -1 and for the Lille is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

32%

35%

25%

9%

Lille

37%

36%

9%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 0.89 goals and Lille to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.11 goals and Lille to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.62

0-1

2.79

1

4.12

2-3

2.19

2

4.05

4+

5.46

3

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

8.62

Un 1.5

2.79

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.32

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.09

3.12

2-3 goals

2.13

3.63

3.94

4+ goals

4.57

4.69

1.76

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.88

2.91

Un 1.5

2.80

3.09

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.41

10.08

2.06

Un 2.5

2.75

2.50

4.21

Ov 3.5

4.57

4.69

1.76

Un 3.5

2.38

3.37

3.53

Goal-Goal

3.32

2.61

3.17

No Goal

2.25

4.90

2.85

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

7.82

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

4.90

3.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nantes vs Bordeaux at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nantes and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nantes

2.05

2.28

-4.9

Draw

3.44

3.65

-1.7

Bordeaux

3.71

3.46

1.9

Over 2.5

2.15

2.46

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.73

1.69

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nantes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance at home.
Nantes, at home, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Brest

A

4

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

Strasbourg

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Lyon

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Rennes

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Nice

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Paris SG

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Reims

H

1

2

L

O

G


Bordeaux in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Lorient

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Apr

Monaco

H

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

St Etienne

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Strasbourg

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Montpellier

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Mar

Dijon

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Paris SG

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Nantes is -0.024 and for the Bordeaux is -0.724.
The home dynamic for the Nantes is -0.632 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bordeaux is -0.068.
The offensive ability for the Nantes is 0.626 and for the Bordeaux is 0.513.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -1 and for the Bordeaux is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nantes and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nantes

28%

32%

30%

11%

Bordeaux

38%

36%

14%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.41 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Nantes to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.23 goals and Bordeaux to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.06

1

4.52

2-3

2.03

2

3.76

4+

5.52

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.55

Un 1.5

3.06

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.08

3.27

2-3 goals

1.87

4.28

4.32

4+ goals

3.35

3.42

2.45

Ov 1.5

2.12

4.01

3.58

Un 1.5

2.70

3.08

3.27

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.68

2.70

Un 2.5

2.52

2.68

4.33

Ov 3.5

3.35

3.42

2.45

Un 3.5

2.13

3.71

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.66

3.82

No Goal

2.00

5.22

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

6.26

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

5.22

3.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lyon vs Lorient at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lyon and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lyon

1.40

1.54

-6.5

Draw

5.15

4.69

1.9

Lorient

7.11

7.30

-0.4

Over 2.5

1.44

2.10

-21.8

Under 2.5

2.73

1.91

15.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 15.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lyon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance at home.
Lyon, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Monaco

A

3

2

W

O

G

25 Apr

Lille

H

2

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Lens

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Paris SG

H

2

4

L

O

G

12 Mar

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N


Lorient in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 17.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Angers

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Bordeaux

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Lens

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Nice

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Lyon is 0.304 and for the Lorient is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Lyon is 0.425 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.432.
The offensive ability for the Lyon is 1 and for the Lorient is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lyon is -0.626 and for the Lorient is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lyon and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lyon

18%

15%

42%

25%

Lorient

54%

26%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lyon to score 2.54 goals and Lorient to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.28 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lyon to score 1.73 goals and Lorient to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

4.33

1

7.63

2-3

1.77

2

3.42

4+

4.88

3

3.66

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

7.58

Un 1.5

4.33

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.69

Ov 3.5

4.88

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

2.31

4.91

2-3 goals

1.21

14.49

9.74

4+ goals

2.07

2.77

6.41

Ov 1.5

1.36

6.81

8.56

Un 1.5

2.75

2.31

4.91

Ov 2.5

1.41

6.46

7.47

Un 2.5

1.68

3.76

7.16

Ov 3.5

2.07

2.77

6.41

Un 3.5

1.44

5.73

7.58

Goal-Goal

1.81

3.29

6.89

No Goal

1.41

6.29

7.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

4.50

6.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.56

6.29

6.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Reims vs Monaco at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

7.98

2.59

26.1

Draw

4.68

3.52

7.0

Monaco

1.40

3.03

-38.4

Over 2.5

1.81

2.55

-16.0

Under 2.5

2.02

1.64

11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims, Draw, Under 2.5 (26.1 %, 7 %, 11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Nimes

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Apr

Marseille

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Metz

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Nice

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Rennes

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G


Monaco in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 11 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

25 Apr

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Metz

H

4

0

W

O

N

19 Mar

St Etienne

A

4

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lille

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Reims is 0.024 and for the Monaco is 0.733.
The home dynamic for the Reims is -0.123 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monaco is 0.318.
The offensive ability for the Reims is 0.217 and for the Monaco is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reims is 0.104 and for the Monaco is 0.887.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

31%

36%

24%

9%

Monaco

37%

36%

11%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 0.58 goals and Monaco to score 2.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Monaco to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.12 goals and Monaco to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

2.82

1

4.13

2-3

2.16

2

3.94

4+

5.49

3

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.55

4

8.47

Un 1.5

2.82

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.55

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

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