2021 05 07 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leicester vs Newcastle at 07 May 2021
Man City vs Chelsea at 08 May 2021
Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace at 08 May 2021
Liverpool vs Southampton at 08 May 2021
Leeds vs Tottenham at 08 May 2021
Wolves vs Brighton at 09 May 2021
Aston Villa vs Man United at 09 May 2021
Arsenal vs West Brom at 09 May 2021
West Ham vs Everton at 09 May 2021
Fulham vs Burnley at 10 May 2021


Leicester vs Newcastle at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

1.43

1.74

-12.5

Draw

4.74

4.15

3.0

Newcastle

7.70

5.43

5.4

Over 2.5

1.73

1.99

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.14

2.01

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (3 %, 5.4 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

West Brom

H

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

West Ham

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Mar

Sheffield United

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G


Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Arsenal

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Liverpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

West Ham

H

3

2

W

O

G

11 Apr

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Brighton

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

West Brom

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Leicester is 0.28 and for the Newcastle is 0.004.
The home dynamic for the Leicester is -0.085 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newcastle is -0.371.
The offensive ability for the Leicester is 0.652 and for the Newcastle is 0.067.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -0.278 and for the Newcastle is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

16%

33%

23%

28%

Newcastle

41%

36%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 2.14 goals and Newcastle to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 1.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.63 goals and Newcastle to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.91

1

5.21

2-3

1.98

2

4.15

4+

4.17

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.91

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.90

4.00

4.49

2-3 goals

1.70

4.20

5.73

4+ goals

1.66

4.29

6.15

Ov 1.5

1.69

4.23

5.86

Un 1.5

1.90

4.00

4.49

Ov 2.5

1.46

8.98

4.93

Un 2.5

2.15

2.70

6.06

Ov 3.5

1.66

4.29

6.15

Un 3.5

1.76

4.13

5.24

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.83

5.47

No Goal

1.46

7.84

5.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

6.75

4.15

NG+Un 2.5

1.63

7.84

4.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man City vs Chelsea at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.95

1.96

-0.3

Draw

3.42

3.88

-3.5

Chelsea

4.27

4.31

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.22

2.08

3.0

Under 2.5

1.69

1.92

-7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 74.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

West Ham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Crystal Palace

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Man City is 0.784 and for the Chelsea is 0.476.
The home dynamic for the Man City is 0.849 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is 0.326.
The offensive ability for the Man City is 1 and for the Chelsea is 0.14.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Man City is 0.191 and for the Chelsea is 0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

19%

34%

27%

20%

Chelsea

37%

36%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 1.44 goals and Chelsea to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.49 goals and Chelsea to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.80

1

5.18

2-3

1.98

2

3.89

4+

4.35

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.80

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

3.76

3.87

2-3 goals

1.83

4.15

4.69

4+ goals

2.11

3.54

4.11

Ov 1.5

1.91

3.94

4.49

Un 1.5

2.10

3.76

3.87

Ov 2.5

1.69

7.37

3.66

Un 2.5

2.29

2.71

5.15

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.54

4.11

Un 3.5

1.92

4.01

4.37

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.72

4.46

No Goal

1.62

7.00

4.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.95

3.39

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

7.00

3.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield United

2.97

2.67

3.8

Draw

3.21

3.75

-4.5

Crystal Palace

2.53

2.79

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.30

2.04

5.5

Under 2.5

1.63

1.96

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield United in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Tottenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Arsenal

H

0

3

L

O

N

03 Apr

Leeds

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Leicester

A

0

5

L

O

N

06 Mar

Southampton

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

0

W

U

N


Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance as a guest.
Crystal Palace, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Leicester

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Chelsea

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Tottenham

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 Mar

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Feb

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.6 and for the Crystal Palace is -0.644.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is -0.802 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crystal Palace is -0.114.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.565 and for the Crystal Palace is 0.451.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.565 and for the Crystal Palace is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield United

28%

32%

27%

14%

Crystal Palace

28%

34%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.04 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.27 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.79

1

5.41

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

4.02

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.79

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.34

2.81

2-3 goals

2.35

4.49

2.84

4+ goals

3.32

3.11

2.65

Ov 1.5

2.61

3.90

2.77

Un 1.5

2.90

3.34

2.81

Ov 2.5

2.39

6.16

2.38

Un 2.5

3.03

2.71

3.33

Ov 3.5

3.32

3.11

2.65

Un 3.5

2.52

4.01

2.83

Goal-Goal

3.11

2.75

3.18

No Goal

2.33

6.11

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.13

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

6.11

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Liverpool vs Southampton at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Liverpool and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Liverpool

1.30

2.02

-27.4

Draw

5.82

3.75

9.5

Southampton

9.92

4.18

13.8

Over 2.5

1.48

2.11

-20.2

Under 2.5

2.61

1.90

14.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 13.8 %, 14.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Liverpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance at home.
Liverpool, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Apr

Newcastle

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Apr

Leeds

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Mar

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fulham

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N


Southampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Tottenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Apr

West Brom

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Burnley

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Mar

Man City

A

2

5

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Liverpool is 0.456 and for the Southampton is -0.573.
The home dynamic for the Liverpool is -0.292 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.136.
The offensive ability for the Liverpool is 0.678 and for the Southampton is 0.513.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is -0.278 and for the Southampton is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Liverpool and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Liverpool

19%

41%

15%

25%

Southampton

37%

36%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 2.62 goals and Southampton to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 2.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.47 goals and Southampton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.46

1

4.57

2-3

2.11

2

4.20

4+

4.22

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.46

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5