# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Leicester vs Newcastle at 07 May 2021**** Man City vs Chelsea at 08 May 2021**** Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace at 08 May 2021**** Liverpool vs Southampton at 08 May 2021**** Leeds vs Tottenham at 08 May 2021**** Wolves vs Brighton at 09 May 2021**** Aston Villa vs Man United at 09 May 2021**** Arsenal vs West Brom at 09 May 2021**** West Ham vs Everton at 09 May 2021**** Fulham vs Burnley at 10 May 2021**

###
Leicester vs Newcastle at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
1.43 |
1.74 |
-12.5 |

Draw |
4.74 |
4.15 |
3.0 |

Newcastle |
7.70 |
5.43 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.99 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.01 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (3 %, 5.4 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Apr |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Sheffield United |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 May |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Leicester** is **0.28** and for the **Newcastle** is **0.004.**

The home dynamic for the **Leicester** is **-0.085** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Newcastle** is **-0.371.**

The offensive ability for the **Leicester** is **0.652** and for the **Newcastle** is **0.067.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leicester** is **-0.278** and for the **Newcastle** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
16% |
33% |
23% |
28% |

Newcastle |
41% |
36% |
16% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **2.14 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **1.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.90 |
4.00 |
4.49 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |
4.20 |
5.73 |

4+ goals |
1.66 |
4.29 |
6.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |
4.23 |
5.86 |

Un 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.00 |
4.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.46 |
8.98 |
4.93 |

Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.70 |
6.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.29 |
6.15 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.13 |
5.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.83 |
5.47 |

No Goal |
1.46 |
7.84 |
5.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.64 |
6.75 |
4.15 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.63 |
7.84 |
4.60 |

####
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###
Man City vs Chelsea at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.95 |
1.96 |
-0.3 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.88 |
-3.5 |

Chelsea |
4.27 |
4.31 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.08 |
3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.92 |
-7.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 74.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Man City** is **0.784** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.476.**

The home dynamic for the **Man City** is **0.849** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chelsea** is **0.326.**

The offensive ability for the **Man City** is **1** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.14.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Man City** is **0.191** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
19% |
34% |
27% |
20% |

Chelsea |
37% |
36% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.10 |
3.76 |
3.87 |

2-3 goals |
1.83 |
4.15 |
4.69 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.54 |
4.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
3.94 |
4.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.76 |
3.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.37 |
3.66 |

Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.71 |
5.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.54 |
4.11 |

Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.01 |
4.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.72 |
4.46 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
7.00 |
4.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.95 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.00 |
3.94 |

####
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###
Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Crystal Palace** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
2.97 |
2.67 |
3.8 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.75 |
-4.5 |

Crystal Palace |
2.53 |
2.79 |
-3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.04 |
5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.96 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 May |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** as a guest**.

Crystal Palace,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 May |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Apr |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.6** and for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.644.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.802** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.114.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.565** and for the **Crystal Palace** is **0.451.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.565** and for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Crystal Palace. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
28% |
32% |
27% |
14% |

Crystal Palace |
28% |
34% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.34 |
2.81 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
4.49 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
3.32 |
3.11 |
2.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.90 |
2.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.34 |
2.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.16 |
2.38 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.71 |
3.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |
3.11 |
2.65 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
4.01 |
2.83 |

Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.75 |
3.18 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.11 |
2.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.13 |
2.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
6.11 |
2.61 |

####
Go to Top

###
Liverpool vs Southampton at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Liverpool** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **08 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Liverpool |
1.30 |
2.02 |
-27.4 |

Draw |
5.82 |
3.75 |
9.5 |

Southampton |
9.92 |
4.18 |
13.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.48 |
2.11 |
-20.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.61 |
1.90 |
14.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 13.8 %, 14.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** at home**.

Liverpool,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Apr |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Mar |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Man City |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Liverpool** is **0.456** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.573.**

The home dynamic for the **Liverpool** is **-0.292** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southampton** is **-0.136.**

The offensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **0.678** and for the **Southampton** is **0.513.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **-0.278** and for the **Southampton** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Liverpool** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Liverpool |
19% |
41% |
15% |
25% |

Southampton |
37% |
36% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **2.62 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.19** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **2.05** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.57 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |