2021 05 07 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Famalicao vs Santa Clara at 07 May 2021
Boavista vs Tondela at 08 May 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo at 09 May 2021
Gil Vicente vs Sp Braga at 09 May 2021
Porto vs Farense at 10 May 2021
Portimonense vs Moreirense at 10 May 2021


Famalicao vs Santa Clara at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

2.28

3.47

-15.0

Draw

3.23

3.73

-4.2

Santa Clara

3.12

2.26

12.2

Over 2.5

2.12

2.29

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.73

1.77

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara (12.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Porto

A

2

3

L

O

G

26 Apr

Tondela

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Apr

Gil Vicente

A

3

0

W

O

N

18 Apr

Portimonense

H

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Maritimo

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Mar

Sp Braga

H

2

2

D

O

G


Santa Clara in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Boavista

H

3

3

D

O

G

26 Apr

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Apr

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Nacional

H

5

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Porto

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Famalicao is 0.024 and for the Santa Clara is -0.396.
The home dynamic for the Famalicao is -0.651 and the dynamic as a guest for the Santa Clara is -0.197.
The offensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.626 and for the Santa Clara is 0.067.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Famalicao is -0.278 and for the Santa Clara is -0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

36%

38%

17%

10%

Santa Clara

29%

26%

30%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.3 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.01 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.25

1

4.93

2-3

2.03

2

3.92

4+

5.03

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

2.93

3.31

2-3 goals

3.97

5.07

1.82

4+ goals

3.69

3.02

2.52

Ov 1.5

3.88

4.24

1.97

Un 1.5

2.80

2.93

3.31

Ov 2.5

3.43

6.61

1.79

Un 2.5

3.50

2.79

2.81

Ov 3.5

3.69

3.02

2.52

Un 3.5

3.42

3.96

2.20

Goal-Goal

4.59

2.79

2.36

No Goal

2.88

5.19

2.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.61

5.41

1.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.89

5.19

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boavista vs Tondela at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

1.85

2.85

-19.0

Draw

3.45

3.65

-1.6

Tondela

4.19

2.66

13.7

Over 2.5

2.04

2.38

-7.0

Under 2.5

1.79

1.72

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Under 2.5 (13.7 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Santa Clara

A

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Farense

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N


Tondela in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Apr

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Apr

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Moreirense

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Boavista is 0.016 and for the Tondela is 0.156.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -0.453 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -0.508.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.565 and for the Tondela is 0.036.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.304 and for the Tondela is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

33%

37%

19%

12%

Tondela

36%

24%

30%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.55 goals and Tondela to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Boavista to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.1 goals and Tondela to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.05

1

4.74

2-3

2.07

2

3.95

4+

5.26

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.05

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

2.80

4.15

2-3 goals

3.12

5.44

2.02

4+ goals

2.97

2.79

3.28

Ov 1.5

3.08

4.29

2.26

Un 1.5

2.48

2.80

4.15

Ov 2.5

2.77

6.19

2.09

Un 2.5

2.92

2.82

3.30

Ov 3.5

2.97

2.79

3.28

Un 3.5

2.83

3.94

2.55

Goal-Goal

3.97

2.76

2.59

No Goal

2.35

4.86

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.16

5.06

2.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

4.86

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.11

1.77

9.1

Draw

3.19

4.07

-6.8

Maritimo

3.58

5.32

-9.1

Over 2.5

2.42

2.03

7.9

Under 2.5

1.57

1.97

-12.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (9.1 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 71.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Sp Braga

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Rio Ave

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Farense

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Apr

Boavista

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Benfica

H

0

5

L

O

N

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Mar

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N


Maritimo in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance as a guest.
Maritimo, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Gil Vicente

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Rio Ave

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Benfica

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Famalicao

H

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.2 and for the Maritimo is 0.378.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.368 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maritimo is -0.364.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.043 and for the Maritimo is 0.036.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.565 and for the Maritimo is 0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

17%

31%

27%

26%

Maritimo

39%

42%

10%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.26 goals and Maritimo to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.6 goals and Maritimo to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.88

1

5.24

2-3

1.97

2

4.00

4+

4.26

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.88

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.85

3.58

2-3 goals

1.62

3.94

7.82

4+ goals

1.75

4.61

4.70

Ov 1.5

1.66

4.13

6.46

Un 1.5

2.17

3.85

3.58

Ov 2.5

1.43

9.67

5.08

Un 2.5

2.29

2.59

5.64

Ov 3.5

1.75

4.61

4.70

Un 3.5

1.77

3.91

5.59

Goal-Goal

2.07

2.82

6.20

No Goal

1.54

7.36

4.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.54

7.43

4.62

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

7.36

4.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Gil Vicente vs Sp Braga at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gil Vicente

4.95

3.94

5.2

Draw

3.64

3.80

-1.2

Sp Braga

1.70

2.07

-10.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.23

-6.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.81

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gil Vicente in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Maritimo

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Farense

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Apr

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Apr

Famalicao

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Benfica

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Moreirense

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Rio Ave

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Mar

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N


Sp Braga in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Gil Vicente is -0.056 and for the Sp Braga is -0.236.
The home dynamic for the Gil Vicente is -0.745 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Braga is 0.47.
The offensive ability for the Gil Vicente is 0.191 and for the Sp Braga is -0.42.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gil Vicente is -0.104 and for the Sp Braga is -0.652.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gil Vicente

37%

38%

17%

8%

Sp Braga

25%

28%

29%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.79 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.96 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.39

1

5.00

2-3

2.01

2

3.92

4+

4.88

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.39

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.88

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07