2021 05 07 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Almeria at 07 May 2021
Alcorcon vs Las Palmas at 08 May 2021
Malaga vs Mallorca at 08 May 2021
Ponferradina vs Albacete at 08 May 2021
Zaragoza vs Espanol at 08 May 2021
Cartagena vs Castellon at 09 May 2021
Logrones vs Girona at 09 May 2021
Mirandes vs Fuenlabrada at 09 May 2021
Oviedo vs Sabadell at 09 May 2021
Sp Gijon vs Lugo at 10 May 2021
Vallecano vs Leganes at 10 May 2021


Tenerife vs Almeria at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tenerife

3.17

2.28

12.3

Draw

2.85

3.56

-7.0

Almeria

2.54

3.55

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.69

2.38

4.8

Under 2.5

1.45

1.73

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tenerife, Over 2.5 (12.3 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tenerife in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance at home.
Tenerife, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Mirandes

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Apr

Cartagena

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Mar

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G


Almeria in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Almeria in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Almeria’s performance as a guest.
Almeria, as a guest, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 53.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Almeria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Oviedo

H

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

Mirandes

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Apr

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Zaragoza

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Apr

Vallecano

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Mar

Malaga

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Mar

Leganes

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Ponferradina

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Tenerife is -0.12 and for the Almeria is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Tenerife is 0.198 and the dynamic as a guest for the Almeria is 0.265.
The offensive ability for the Tenerife is -0.565 and for the Almeria is 0.585.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.13 and for the Almeria is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tenerife and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tenerife

26%

35%

25%

14%

Almeria

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 0.91 goals and Almeria to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.28 goals and Almeria to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.21

1

4.55

2-3

2.01

2

3.75

4+

5.26

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.21

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.39

3.28

2-3 goals

2.15

3.86

3.64

4+ goals

2.38

3.17

3.80

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.64

3.68

Un 1.5

2.50

3.39

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.02

3.05

Un 2.5

2.71

2.62

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.17

3.80

Un 3.5

2.27

3.67

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.53

4.09

No Goal

1.97

5.67

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.82

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.67

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Alcorcon vs Las Palmas at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alcorcon

2.16

2.17

-0.2

Draw

2.98

3.62

-5.9

Las Palmas

3.88

3.77

0.8

Over 2.5

2.74

2.31

6.8

Under 2.5

1.46

1.76

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Las Palmas, Over 2.5 (0.8 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alcorcon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance at home.
Alcorcon, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Leganes

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Lugo

A

3

1

W

O

G

12 Apr

Castellon

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Cartagena

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Mar

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Mar

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Mar

Vallecano

H

0

3

L

O

N


Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Ponferradina

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

17 Apr

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Oviedo

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Mallorca

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Lugo

H

6

1

W

O

G

28 Mar

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Girona

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Alcorcon is 0.296 and for the Las Palmas is 0.182.
The home dynamic for the Alcorcon is -0.264 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.379.
The offensive ability for the Alcorcon is 1 and for the Las Palmas is 0.036.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Alcorcon is -0.539 and for the Las Palmas is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alcorcon and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alcorcon

24%

35%

26%

16%

Las Palmas

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.18 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.33 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.32

1

4.67

2-3

1.99

2

3.76

4+

5.08

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.32

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.46

3.42

2-3 goals

2.05

3.92

3.89

4+ goals

2.21

3.23

4.19

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.70

3.97

Un 1.5

2.39

3.46

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.10

3.31

Un 2.5

2.59

2.64

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.23

4.19

Un 3.5

2.16

3.73

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.56

4.32

No Goal

1.86

5.93

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.84

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

5.93

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Malaga vs Mallorca at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Malaga

3.79

2.75

10.0

Draw

3.14

3.46

-2.9

Mallorca

2.08

2.88

-13.4

Over 2.5

2.58

2.48

1.6

Under 2.5

1.50

1.68

-7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (10 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Malaga in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Espanol

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Albacete

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Lugo

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Mar

Almeria

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Mar

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G


Mallorca in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Mirandes

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Apr

Sabadell

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Castellon

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Lugo

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Leganes

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Mar

Fuenlabrada

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Mar

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Malaga is -0.144 and for the Mallorca is 0.164.
The home dynamic for the Malaga is -0.34 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mallorca is 0.667.
The offensive ability for the Malaga is -0.217 and for the Mallorca is -0.005.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Malaga is -0.278 and for the Mallorca is -0.304.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Malaga

30%

37%

23%

10%

Mallorca

33%

35%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 0.81 goals and Mallorca to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and the guest team Mallorca to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.12 goals and Mallorca to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.08

1

4.42

2-3

2.01

2

3.68

4+

5.62

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.08

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.28

3.12

2-3 goals

2.68

3.86

2.72

4+ goals

3.18

2.92

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.56

2.77

Un 1.5

2.66

3.28

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.42

6.62

2.30

Un 2.5

3.03

2.62

3.47

Ov 3.5

3.18

2.92

2.92

Un 3.5

2.67

3.61

2.87

Goal-Goal

3.48

2.47

3.24

No Goal

2.32

5.36

2.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

5.59

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

5.36

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ponferradina vs Albacete at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

2.19

1.91

6.7

Draw

3.13

3.86

-6.0

Albacete

3.49

4.59

-6.9

Over 2.5

2.44

2.16

5.3

Under 2.5

1.55

1.87

-11.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Las Palmas

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Lugo

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Apr

Leganes

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Girona

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Mar

Logrones

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Mar

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G


Albacete in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 24.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Alcorcon

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Apr

Vallecano

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Espanol

H

0

3

L

O

N

31 Mar

Castellon

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Mar

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Mar

Cartagena

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ponferradina is -0.096 and for the Albacete is -0.556.
The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is 0.226 and the dynamic as a guest for the Albacete is -0.182.
The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.157 and for the Albacete is -0.793.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is -0.191 and for the Albacete is -0.591.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

19%

34%

27%

20%

Albacete

39%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.23 goals and Albacete to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.49 goals and Albacete to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.64

1

4.95

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.67

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.64

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-