2021 05 07 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Udinese vs Bologna at 08 May 2021
Spezia vs Napoli at 08 May 2021
Inter vs Sampdoria at 08 May 2021
Fiorentina vs Lazio at 08 May 2021
Parma vs Atalanta at 09 May 2021
Benevento vs Cagliari at 09 May 2021
Verona vs Torino at 09 May 2021
Genoa vs Sassuolo at 09 May 2021
Roma vs Crotone at 09 May 2021
Juventus vs Milan at 09 May 2021


Udinese vs Bologna at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

2.40

2.20

3.8

Draw

3.18

3.80

-5.1

Bologna

3.18

3.55

-3.3

Over 2.5

1.89

2.02

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.96

1.98

-0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Udinese (3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Juventus

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Benevento

A

4

2

W

O

G

21 Apr

Cagliari

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G


Bologna in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Fiorentina

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

5

L

O

N

21 Apr

Torino

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Inter

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Crotone

A

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Sampdoria

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Udinese is -0.256 and for the Bologna is -0.369.
The home dynamic for the Udinese is -0.236 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bologna is -0.371.
The offensive ability for the Udinese is 0.243 and for the Bologna is -0.316.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Udinese is -1 and for the Bologna is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

23%

31%

26%

20%

Bologna

32%

36%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.41 goals and Bologna to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.42 goals and Bologna to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Udinese to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.88

1

5.43

2-3

2.03

2

4.08

4+

4.05

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.49

3.11

2-3 goals

2.05

4.40

3.52

4+ goals

2.21

3.25

4.19

Ov 1.5

2.10

3.94

3.72

Un 1.5

2.55

3.49

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.51

3.30

Un 2.5

2.72

2.70

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.25

4.19

Un 3.5

2.20

4.04

3.37

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.77

4.13

No Goal

1.93

6.46

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.37

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.46

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Napoli at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

5.97

3.27

13.8

Draw

4.58

3.83

4.3

Napoli

1.51

2.31

-22.9

Over 2.5

1.54

2.03

-15.7

Under 2.5

2.47

1.97

10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.8 %, 4.3 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Cagliari

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G


Napoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 10 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Apr

Torino

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Lazio

H

5

2

W

O

G

18 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Crotone

H

4

3

W

O

G

21 Mar

Roma

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Spezia is -0.28 and for the Napoli is 0.449.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.406 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.265.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 0.565 and for the Napoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -1 and for the Napoli is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

35%

28%

27%

10%

Napoli

29%

24%

26%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.81 goals and Napoli to score 2.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the guest team Napoli to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.12 goals and Napoli to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.72

1

5.99

2-3

2.09

2

4.18

4+

3.95

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.28

2.64

3.16

2-3 goals

2.75

7.03

2.03

4+ goals

5.06

2.75

2.28

Ov 1.5

3.26

4.57

2.11

Un 1.5

3.28

2.64

3.16

Ov 2.5

3.39

5.35

1.93

Un 2.5

3.16

2.99

2.87

Ov 3.5

5.06

2.75

2.28

Un 3.5

2.92

4.39

2.33

Goal-Goal

3.97

2.88

2.49

No Goal

2.84

5.28

2.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.39

4.27

2.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.73

5.28

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Inter vs Sampdoria at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Inter and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Inter

1.46

1.95

-17.2

Draw

4.69

3.98

3.8

Sampdoria

6.91

4.22

9.2

Over 2.5

1.57

2.36

-21.3

Under 2.5

2.39

1.74

15.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sampdoria, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 9.2 %, 15.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Inter in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance at home.
Inter, at home, had 14 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 43 points, 89.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Spezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Bologna

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Torino

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Crotone

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Verona

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Apr

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Torino

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Bologna

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Inter is 0.8 and for the Sampdoria is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Inter is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sampdoria is -0.189.
The offensive ability for the Inter is 1 and for the Sampdoria is 0.067.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Inter is 0.243 and for the Sampdoria is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Inter and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Inter

24%

33%

24%

19%

Sampdoria

53%

13%

28%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 2.28 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 1.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.37 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.75

0-1

2.99

1

4.85

2-3

2.09

2

4.15

4+

5.32

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.99

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.82

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.55

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.91

2.60

10.81

2-3 goals

1.83

11.38

2.73

4+ goals

2.44

2.35

6.06

Ov 1.5

1.97

5.46

3.23

Un 1.5

1.91

2.60

10.81

Ov 2.5

2.04

5.31

3.10

Un 2.5

1.89

3.37

5.76

Ov 3.5

2.44

2.35

6.06

Un 3.5

1.86

4.75

3.95

Goal-Goal

3.26

2.91

2.86

No Goal

1.60

5.01

5.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.87

3.91

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

5.01

5.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Fiorentina vs Lazio at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

3.97

2.65

12.5

Draw

3.83

3.68

1.1

Lazio

1.88

2.85

-18.1

Over 2.5

1.67

1.99

-9.6

Under 2.5

2.24

2.01

5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fiorentina, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.5 %, 1.1 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Bologna

A

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Sassuolo

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Atalanta

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Milan

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Benevento

A

4

1

W

O

G


Lazio in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 May

Genoa

H

4

3

W

O

G

26 Apr

Milan

H

3

0

W

O

N

22 Apr

Napoli

A

2

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Benevento

H

5

3

W

O

G

11 Apr

Verona

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Fiorentina is -0.064 and for the Lazio is 0.787.
The home dynamic for the Fiorentina is -0.142 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is 0.182.
The offensive ability for the Fiorentina is 1 and for the Lazio is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fiorentina is -1 and for the Lazio is -0.217.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

32%

19%

36%

13%

Lazio

33%

23%

28%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.04 goals and Lazio to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.3 goals and Lazio to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

4.12

1

7.25

2-3

2.06

2

3.92

4+

3.65

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.12

5

10.87

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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