# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reggiana vs Spal at 07 May 2021**** Ascoli vs Cittadella at 07 May 2021**** Brescia vs Pisa at 07 May 2021**** Cosenza vs Monza at 07 May 2021**** Lecce vs Reggina at 07 May 2021**** Salernitana vs Empoli at 07 May 2021**** Venezia vs Pordenone at 07 May 2021**** Virtus Entella vs Chievo at 07 May 2021**** Cremonese vs Pescara at 07 May 2021**

###
Reggiana vs Spal at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggiana** and **Spal** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggiana |
3.13 |
2.70 |
5.1 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.32 |
-1.2 |

Spal |
2.35 |
3.04 |
-9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.44 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.69 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggiana (5.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 15%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggiana** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggiana** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance** at home**.

Reggiana,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Pescara |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Apr |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Spal** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spal** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance** as a guest**.

Spal,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Mar |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Reggiana** is **-0.296** and for the **Spal** is **-0.467.**

The home dynamic for the **Reggiana** is **-0.302** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Spal** is **0.189.**

The offensive ability for the **Reggiana** is **-0.157** and for the **Spal** is **0.451.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reggiana** is **-0.243** and for the **Spal** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggiana** and the red line for guest team, **Spal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggiana |
27% |
40% |
22% |
11% |

Spal |
28% |
43% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Spal** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggiana** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Spal** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.30 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
5.52 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.52 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
4.04 |
2.66 |

2-3 goals |
2.72 |
2.98 |
3.37 |

4+ goals |
2.74 |
3.42 |
2.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.08 |
3.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
4.04 |
2.66 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
7.74 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.33 |
2.38 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.42 |
2.92 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.30 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.32 |
3.80 |

No Goal |
2.28 |
6.32 |
2.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.64 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
6.32 |
2.54 |

####
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###
Ascoli vs Cittadella at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ascoli** and **Cittadella** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ascoli |
2.72 |
2.58 |
2.0 |

Draw |
2.96 |
3.46 |
-4.9 |

Cittadella |
2.76 |
3.10 |
-4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.31 |
-3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.76 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ascoli (2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 15%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ascoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ascoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance** at home**.

Ascoli,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Reggina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Spal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Monza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Pescara |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Cittadella** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cittadella** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance** as a guest**.

Cittadella,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Virtus Entella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 May |
Lecce |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ascoli** is **0.656** and for the **Cittadella** is **0.511.**

The home dynamic for the **Ascoli** is **-0.396** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cittadella** is **0.068.**

The offensive ability for the **Ascoli** is **1** and for the **Cittadella** is **0.617.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ascoli** is **-0.191** and for the **Cittadella** is **-0.13.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ascoli** and the red line for guest team, **Cittadella. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ascoli |
27% |
36% |
27% |
11% |

Cittadella |
28% |
42% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ascoli** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Cittadella** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ascoli** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Cittadella** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.58 |
4+ |
5.18 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.87 |
2.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.41 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.11 |
3.02 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.33 |
3.37 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.87 |
2.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.98 |
2.71 |

Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
2.51 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.11 |
3.02 |

Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.56 |
3.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.46 |
3.96 |

No Goal |
2.27 |
6.33 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.05 |
2.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
6.33 |
2.54 |

####
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###
Brescia vs Pisa at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brescia** and **Pisa** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brescia |
1.54 |
2.20 |
-19.5 |

Draw |
3.91 |
3.89 |
0.1 |

Pisa |
6.11 |
3.47 |
12.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.99 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.01 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Pisa (0.1 %, 12.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 15%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brescia** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brescia** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance** at home**.

Brescia,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 53.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Vicenza |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 May |
Spal |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Empoli |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Pescara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Apr |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Pordenone |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Pisa** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Pisa,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Pordenone |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Cosenza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Apr |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Lecce |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Pescara |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Mar |
Spal |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Brescia** is **0.456** and for the **Pisa** is **-0.369.**

The home dynamic for the **Brescia** is **-0.245** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Pisa** is **-0.038.**

The offensive ability for the **Brescia** is **1** and for the **Pisa** is **0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brescia** is **-0.539** and for the **Pisa** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brescia** and the red line for guest team, **Pisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brescia |
23% |
27% |
35% |
15% |

Pisa |
35% |
31% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brescia** to score **1.89 ** goals and **Pisa** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Brescia ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brescia** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Pisa** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.05 |
3.39 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
6.05 |
3.72 |

4+ goals |
3.22 |
2.70 |
3.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.27 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.05 |
3.39 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.34 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
3.06 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |
2.70 |
3.14 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.58 |
3.60 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.84 |
3.67 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.21 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
4.47 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.21 |
3.43 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cosenza vs Monza at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cosenza** and **Monza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **07 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cosenza |
4.95 |
2.67 |
17.3 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.34 |
0.9 |

Monza |
1.75 |
3.08 |
-24.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.41 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.71 |
1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cosenza, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.3 %, 0.9 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 15%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cosenza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cosenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance** at home**.

Cosenza,** at home**, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Apr |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Apr |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Mar |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Monza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monza** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance** as a guest**.

Monza,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 May |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 May |
Salernitana |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Cremonese |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Ascoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Pescara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Apr |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Reggiana |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cosenza** is **-0.304** and for the **Monza** is **0.476.**

The home dynamic for the **Cosenza** is **-0.566** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Monza** is **0.417.**

The offensive ability for the **Cosenza** is **-0.591** and for the **Monza** is **0.554.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cosenza** is **-0.565** and for the **Monza** is **-0.539.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cosenza** and the red line for guest team, **Monza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cosenza |
27% |
38% |
24% |
11% |

Monza |
28% |
44% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cosenza** to score **0.77 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the guest team **Monza ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cosenza** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.47 |
4+ |
5.49 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |

NoG |
2.13 |