2021 05 07 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reggiana vs Spal at 07 May 2021
Ascoli vs Cittadella at 07 May 2021
Brescia vs Pisa at 07 May 2021
Cosenza vs Monza at 07 May 2021
Lecce vs Reggina at 07 May 2021
Salernitana vs Empoli at 07 May 2021
Venezia vs Pordenone at 07 May 2021
Virtus Entella vs Chievo at 07 May 2021
Cremonese vs Pescara at 07 May 2021


Reggiana vs Spal at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Spal for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

3.13

2.70

5.1

Draw

3.19

3.32

-1.2

Spal

2.35

3.04

-9.7

Over 2.5

2.17

2.44

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.69

1.69

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 15%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Pescara

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 May

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Reggina

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Apr

Empoli

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Brescia

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N


Spal in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance as a guest.
Spal, as a guest, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Frosinone

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 May

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Apr

Ascoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Lecce

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Mar

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Reggiana is -0.296 and for the Spal is -0.467.
The home dynamic for the Reggiana is -0.302 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spal is 0.189.
The offensive ability for the Reggiana is -0.157 and for the Spal is 0.451.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reggiana is -0.243 and for the Spal is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Spal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

27%

40%

22%

11%

Spal

28%

43%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.03 goals and Spal to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.17 goals and Spal to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.30

1

4.39

2-3

1.94

2

3.50

4+

5.52

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.30

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

4.04

2.66

2-3 goals

2.72

2.98

3.37

4+ goals

2.74

3.42

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.08

3.24

Un 1.5

2.66

4.04

2.66

Ov 2.5

2.14

7.74

2.48

Un 2.5

3.33

2.38

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.74

3.42

2.92

Un 3.5

2.70

3.30

3.06

Goal-Goal

3.26

2.32

3.80

No Goal

2.28

6.32

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

6.64

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

6.32

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ascoli vs Cittadella at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ascoli and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ascoli

2.72

2.58

2.0

Draw

2.96

3.46

-4.9

Cittadella

2.76

3.10

-4.0

Over 2.5

2.12

2.31

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.72

1.76

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 15%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ascoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance at home.
Ascoli, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Reggina

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Empoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Spal

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Monza

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Cosenza

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Mar

Cremonese

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G


Cittadella in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Virtus Entella

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Lecce

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Vicenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Ascoli is 0.656 and for the Cittadella is 0.511.
The home dynamic for the Ascoli is -0.396 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is 0.068.
The offensive ability for the Ascoli is 1 and for the Cittadella is 0.617.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ascoli is -0.191 and for the Cittadella is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ascoli and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ascoli

27%

36%

27%

11%

Cittadella

28%

42%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.17 goals and Cittadella to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.22 goals and Cittadella to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.45

1

4.65

2-3

1.93

2

3.58

4+

5.18

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.45

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

5.18

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.87

2.57

2-3 goals

2.36

3.41

3.53

4+ goals

2.88

3.11

3.02

Ov 1.5

2.48

3.33

3.37

Un 1.5

2.84

3.87

2.57

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.98

2.71

Un 2.5

3.20

2.51

3.47

Ov 3.5

2.88

3.11

3.02

Un 3.5

2.51

3.56

3.11

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.46

3.96

No Goal

2.27

6.33

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

6.05

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.33

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brescia vs Pisa at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brescia

1.54

2.20

-19.5

Draw

3.91

3.89

0.1

Pisa

6.11

3.47

12.5

Over 2.5

1.84

1.99

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.95

2.01

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Pisa (0.1 %, 12.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 15%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brescia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance at home.
Brescia, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 53.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Vicenza

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 May

Spal

H

3

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Empoli

A

2

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Pescara

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Reggiana

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Apr

Pordenone

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Reggina

H

1

0

W

U

N


Pisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Frosinone

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Apr

Pordenone

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Cosenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Chievo

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Apr

Lecce

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Pescara

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Mar

Spal

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Brescia is 0.456 and for the Pisa is -0.369.
The home dynamic for the Brescia is -0.245 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pisa is -0.038.
The offensive ability for the Brescia is 1 and for the Pisa is 0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is -0.539 and for the Pisa is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brescia and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brescia

23%

27%

35%

15%

Pisa

35%

31%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.89 goals and Pisa to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.42 goals and Pisa to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

4.10

1

6.10

2-3

1.99

2

3.94

4+

3.94

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.41

Un 1.5

4.10

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.05

3.39

2-3 goals

1.77

6.05

3.72

4+ goals

3.22

2.70

3.14

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.27

3.50

Un 1.5

2.65

3.05

3.39

Ov 2.5

2.08

5.34

3.01

Un 2.5

2.33

3.06

4.12

Ov 3.5

3.22

2.70

3.14

Un 3.5

1.98

4.58

3.60

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.84

3.67

No Goal

1.87

6.21

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

4.47

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.21

3.43


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cosenza vs Monza at 07 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cosenza and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 07 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cosenza

4.95

2.67

17.3

Draw

3.44

3.34

0.9

Monza

1.75

3.08

-24.7

Over 2.5

2.10

2.41

-6.1

Under 2.5

1.74

1.71

1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.3 %, 0.9 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 15%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cosenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance at home.
Cosenza, at home, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Empoli

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 May

Pescara

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Venezia

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Apr

Cremonese

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Apr

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Reggiana

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G


Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 May

Lecce

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Salernitana

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Cremonese

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Ascoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Pescara

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Apr

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Venezia

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Cosenza is -0.304 and for the Monza is 0.476.
The home dynamic for the Cosenza is -0.566 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monza is 0.417.
The offensive ability for the Cosenza is -0.591 and for the Monza is 0.554.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cosenza is -0.565 and for the Monza is -0.539.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cosenza and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cosenza

27%

38%

24%

11%

Monza

28%

44%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cosenza to score 0.77 goals and Monza to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the guest team Monza to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.19 goals and Monza to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.36

1

4.46

2-3

1.92

2

3.47

4+

5.49

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.36

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

2.13