2021 05 08 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Orleans vs Metropolitans 92 at 08 May 2021
Limoges vs Elan Chalon at 08 May 2021
Monaco vs Gravelines at 09 May 2021
Le Portel vs Le Mans at 09 May 2021
Cholet vs Pau-Lacq-Orthez at 09 May 2021
ASVEL vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 09 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Orleans vs Metropolitans 92 at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Orleans and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Orleans

2.05

1.73

Metropolitans 92

1.8

2.37

Orleans HC

+1.5

-3.00

Metropolitans 92 HC

-1.5

3.00

Point Line

162.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Orleans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

H

Boulazac

W

91

68

11

11

W 3

85

73

May 1

A

Roanne

W

95

91

10

11

W 2

93

92

Apr 27

H

JL Bourg

W

78

70

9

11

W 1

80

66

Apr 23

H

Nanterre

L

89

98

8

11

L 1

88

97

Apr 20

A

BCM Gravelines

W

77

64

8

10

W 1

76

68

Apr 17

H

Le Mans

L

79

87

7

10

L 4

78

81

Apr 11

A

Paris Levallois

L

65

87

7

9

L 3

70

88

Apr 3

A

Monaco

L

80

92

7

8

L 2

87

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Metropolitans 92 are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 5

A

JL Bourg

L

77

86

16

9

L 1

78

81

Apr 30

H

Chalons-Reims

W

77

71

16

8

W 3

72

72

Apr 27

A

Boulazac

W

91

85

15

8

W 2

85

91

Apr 23

H

Le Mans

W

101

92

14

8

W 1

99

86

Apr 20

H

Monaco

L

78

85

13

8

L 1

85

82

Apr 17

A

Elan Bearnais

W

98

93

13

7

W 3

94

95

Apr 11

H

Orleans Loiret

W

87

65

12

7

W 2

86

61

Apr 7

H

Elan Chalon

W

88

80

11

7

W 1

84

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Orleans and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Metropolitans 92.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Metropolitans 92 and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Orleans.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Orleans (in the first graph) and by Metropolitans 92 in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Orleans will expected to score 82 points and the Metropolitans 92 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Orleans

Metropolitans 92

FG%

0.57

0.57

ASS

20.50

19.70

DRB

22.70

21.60

AST-TO

1.44

1.55

TRB

29.70

29.60

FTM

17.00

13.00

BL

1.90

3.40

FTA

22.70

17.70

PF-Fewer

19.20

21.20

ST

8.00

7.10

TO-Fewer

14.20

12.70

Ftper

0.75

0.73

ORBper

0.31

0.37

ORB

7.00

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Limoges vs Elan Chalon at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Limoges and Elan Chalon for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Limoges

1.44

2.21

Elan Chalon

2.92

1.83

Limoges HC

-5.5

2.00

Elan Chalon HC

+5.5

-2.00

Point Line

160.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

A

Elan Chalon

W

96

95

11

10

W 2

92

97

Apr 27

A

Nanterre

W

88

66

10

10

W 1

87

65

Apr 20

H

Strasbourg

L

68

81

9

10

L 1

69

79

Apr 18

A

JL Bourg

W

69

66

9

9

W 1

70

62

Apr 13

H

Dijon

L

69

103

8

9

L 1

75

104

Apr 9

A

Cholet

W

82

81

8

8

W 1

81

80

Apr 3

H

Roanne

L

62

86

7

8

L 1

61

87

Mar 27

A

Boulazac

W

72

63

7

7

W 2

67

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Elan Chalon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

H

Limoges

L

95

96

8

16

L 2

98

103

Apr 30

A

ASVEL

L

75

102

8

15

L 1

76

89

Apr 27

H

BCM Gravelines

W

81

80

8

14

W 1

80

84

Apr 23

A

JL Bourg

L

85

88

7

14

L 5

87

83

Apr 20

A

Le Mans

L

78

98

7

13

L 4

77

91

Apr 17

A

Nanterre

L

84

97

7

12

L 3

83

96

Apr 14

H

Monaco

L

78

86

7

11

L 2

85

84

Apr 7

A

Paris Levallois

L

80

88

7

10

L 1

86

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Elan Chalon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Elan Chalon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Limoges (in the first graph) and by Elan Chalon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Limoges will expected to score 80 points and the Elan Chalon 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Limoges

Elan Chalon

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

19.30

19.00

DRB

20.10

22.00

AST-TO

1.46

1.12

TRB

26.80

30.50

FTM

14.40

15.10

BL

1.40

2.00

FTA

18.30

20.10

PF-Fewer

18.10

20.80

ST

5.60

6.80

TO-Fewer

13.20

17.00

Ftper

0.79

0.75

ORBper

0.33

0.39

ORB

6.70

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Gravelines at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Gravelines for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.11

1.64

Gravelines

7.2

2.57

Monaco HC

-14.5

-3.50

Gravelines HC

+14.5

3.50

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 23

A

Strasbourg

W

82

70

16

2

W 5

84

68

Apr 20

A

Paris Levallois

W

85

78

15

2

W 4

91

79

Apr 14

A

Elan Chalon

W

86

78

14

2

W 3

82

80

Apr 12

H

Chalons-Reims

W

94

76

13

2

W 2

88

77

Apr 3

H

Orleans Loiret

W

92

80

12

2

W 1

91

75

Mar 29

H

Cholet

L

76

97

11

2

L 1

75

96

Mar 20

A

Cholet

W

87

76

11

1

W 11

86

75

Mar 12

A

Le Portel

W

81

71

10

1

W 10

79

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

A

Cholet

L

90

105

8

15

L 7

89

104

May 1

H

Nanterre

L

81

102

8

14

L 6

80

101

Apr 27

A

Elan Chalon

L

80

81

8

13

L 5

76

83

Apr 20

H

Orleans Loiret

L

64

77

8

12

L 4

64

72

Apr 16

A

Chalons-Reims

L

70

87

8

11

L 3

66

88

Apr 10

A

Le Portel

L

65

89

8

10

L 2

63

98

Apr 7

H

JL Bourg

L

90

98

8

9

L 1

92

92

Apr 3

H

Paris Levallois

W

72

61

8

8

W 1

77

62

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gravelines.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gravelines and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Gravelines in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 84 points and the Gravelines 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Gravelines

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

17.10

18.10

DRB

21.20

22.20

AST-TO

1.37

1.08

TRB

31.80

28.80

FTM

16.70

15.40

BL

2.60

1.60

FTA

23.10

19.60

PF-Fewer

22.10

20.80

ST

10.20

7.40

TO-Fewer

12.50

16.70

Ftper

0.72

0.78

ORBper

0.50

0.30

ORB

10.60

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Le Portel vs Le Mans at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Le Portel and Le Mans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Le Portel

3.1

5.00

Le Mans

1.4

1.25

Le Portel HC

+6.5

8.50

Le Mans HC

-6.5

-8.50

Point Line

160.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Portel are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 7

H

ASVEL

L

69

99

9

15

L 4

70

87

May 4

A

Nanterre

L

75

76

9

14

L 3

74

75

May 1

A

JL Bourg

L

72

101

9

13

L 2

73

95

Apr 27

A

Elan Bearnais

L

68

90

9

12

L 1

65

92

Apr 20

H

Boulazac

W

81

77

9

11

W 2

76

82

Apr 16

H

Roanne

W

79

77

8

11

W 1

77

78

Apr 13

A

Le Mans

L

61

90

7

11

L 1

60

84

Apr 10

H

BCM Gravelines

W

89

65

7

10

W 1

88

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Mans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

A

Chalons-Reims

W

77

72

14

7

W 2

72

73

May 1

H

Elan Bearnais

W

88

78

13

7

W 1

84

79

Apr 23

A

Paris Levallois

L

92

101

12

7

L 1

98

102

Apr 20

H

Elan Chalon

W

98

78

12

6

W 4

93

80

Apr 17

A

Orleans Loiret

W

87

79

11

6

W 3

86

74

Apr 15

H

Cholet

W

85

84

10

6

W 2

84

83

Apr 13

H

Le Portel

W

90

61

9

6

W 1

87

67

Apr 9

A

Roanne

L

72

90

8

6

L 1

70

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Portel and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Mans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Mans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Portel.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Le Portel (in the first graph) and by Le Mans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Le Portel will expected to score 79 points and the Le Mans 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Le Portel

Le Mans

FG%

0.52

0.57

ASS

17.50

20.60

DRB

19.80

23.10

AST-TO

1.09

1.36

TRB

27.90

32.10

FTM

13.30

17.10

BL

1.70

3.00

FTA

18.20

22.60

PF-Fewer

21.20

22.20

ST

7.60

6.80

TO-Fewer

16.00

15.10

Ftper

0.73

0.76

ORBper

0.41

0.39

ORB

8.10

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cholet vs Pau-Lacq-Orthez at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cholet and Pau-Lacq-Orthez for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cholet

1.42

1.16

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

2.95

7.38

Cholet HC

-5.5

-10.00

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

+5.5

10.00

Point Line

162.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

H

BCM Gravelines

W

105

90

9

13

W 1

104

95

Apr 30

A

Dijon

L

81

89

8

13

L 1

88

90

Apr 27

H

Roanne

W

83

72

8

12

W 2

81

73

Apr 23

A

Boulazac

W

83

77