2021 05 08 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brescia vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 10 May 2021
Reggiana vs Reyer Venezia at 10 May 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Vanoli Cremona at 10 May 2021
Cantu vs Dinamo Sassari at 10 May 2021
Trieste vs Fortitudo Bologna at 10 May 2021
Virtus Bologna vs Aquila Basket Trento at 10 May 2021
Brindisi vs Varese at 10 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Brescia vs Victoria Libertas Pesaro at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Victoria Libertas Pesaro for Serie A, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brescia

1.65

2.24

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

2.3

1.80

Brescia HC

-3.5

2.50

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+3.5

-2.50

Point Line

167.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

94

89

10

18

W 1

89

84

Apr 18

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

94

9

18

L 7

79

83

Apr 14

H

Red October Cantu

L

69

74

9

17

L 6

69

77

Apr 11

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

87

94

9

16

L 5

93

93

Apr 3

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

78

88

9

15

L 4

78

91

Mar 28

H

Enel Brindisi

L

68

74

9

14

L 3

71

70

Mar 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

67

91

9

13

L 2

69

94

Mar 14

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

92

99

9

12

L 1

100

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

81

88

11

17

L 3

88

82

Apr 18

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

88

101

11

16

L 2

90

102

Apr 14

H

Enel Brindisi

L

62

86

11

15

L 1

65

81

Apr 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

79

77

11

14

W 1

79

80

Apr 3

H

Universo Treviso

L

89

97

10

14

L 5

82

93

Mar 29

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

79

91

10

13

L 4

80

96

Mar 20

H

Virtus Bologna

L

70

75

10

12

L 3

74

70

Mar 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

68

81

10

11

L 2

65

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brescia (in the first graph) and by Victoria Libertas Pesaro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brescia will expected to score 82 points and the Victoria Libertas Pesaro 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brescia

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

18.50

16.10

DRB

23.40

22.90

AST-TO

1.50

1.48

TRB

31.90

32.80

FTM

12.80

13.40

BL

1.70

1.00

FTA

15.30

17.50

PF-Fewer

21.20

21.10

ST

7.30

6.50

TO-Fewer

12.30

10.90

Ftper

0.84

0.76

ORBper

0.36

0.43

ORB

8.40

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Reggiana vs Reyer Venezia at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

3.4

2.20

Reyer Venezia

1.34

1.84

Reggiana HC

+6.5

2.00

Reyer Venezia HC

-6.5

-2.00

Point Line

155.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

89

10

17

L 1

79

79

Apr 18

A

Red October Cantu

W

72

71

10

16

W 2

72

74

Apr 11

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

95

77

9

16

W 1

91

76

Apr 3

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

71

90

8

16

L 1

67

85

Mar 29

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

91

79

8

15

W 1

90

78

Mar 19

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

68

71

7

15

L 6

68

74

Mar 13

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

70

96

7

14

L 5

71

97

Mar 7

A

Universo Treviso

L

72

78

7

13

L 4

66

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

Universo Treviso

W

82

62

19

9

W 4

76

59

Apr 18

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

92

76

18

9

W 3

92

79

Apr 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

77

75

17

9

W 2

74

74

Apr 11

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

94

87

16

9

W 1

91

86

Apr 3

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

84

90

15

9

L 1

86

93

Mar 28

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

69

63

15

8

W 2

75

59

Mar 21

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

87

69

14

8

W 1

89

69

Mar 6

A

Virtus Bologna

L

72

77

13

8

L 2

76

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 76 points and the Reyer Venezia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.50

0.55

ASS

15.70

17.80

DRB

23.70

24.80

AST-TO

1.24

1.30

TRB

32.10

33.10

FTM

14.00

11.90

BL

1.90

2.60

FTA

18.10

17.10

PF-Fewer

20.40

22.60

ST

6.10

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.70

Ftper

0.78

0.69

ORBper

0.35

0.33

ORB

8.40

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Vanoli Cremona at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.09

1.51

Vanoli Cremona

8.5

2.95

Olimpia Milano HC

+14.5

-5.00

Vanoli Cremona HC

-14.5

5.00

Point Line

167.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

88

81

22

6

W 3

86

80

Apr 17

H

Virtus Bologna

W

94

84

21

6

W 2

100

79

Apr 14

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

85

73

20

6

W 1

82

65

Apr 11

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

80

19

6

L 3

74

75

Apr 5

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

81

83

19

5

L 2

78

82

Mar 28

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

63

69

19

4

L 1

67

68

Mar 21

H

Red October Cantu

W

70

57

19

3

W 2

70

59

Mar 14

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

99

92

18

3

W 1

96

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

94

11

16

L 1

86

93

Apr 18

A

Enel Brindisi

W

78

67

11

15

W 3

82

63

Apr 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

74

10

15

W 2

82

77

Apr 3

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

90

71

9

15

W 1

91

75

Mar 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

84

95

8

15

L 3

81

84

Mar 21

H

Universo Treviso

L

85

86

8

14

L 2

78

82

Mar 14

A

Red October Cantu

L

85

92

8

13

L 1

85

96

Mar 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

78

8

12

W 2

98

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 85 points and the Vanoli Cremona 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Vanoli Cremona

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

17.90

17.60

DRB

23.90

25.60

AST-TO

1.66

1.60

TRB

31.50

33.90

FTM

15.50

15.30

BL

2.80

2.70

FTA

18.70

19.90

PF-Fewer

18.40

19.70

ST

7.30

6.50

TO-Fewer

10.80

11.00

Ftper

0.83

0.77

ORBper

0.32

0.32

ORB

7.60

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cantu vs Dinamo Sassari at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cantu and Dinamo Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cantu

3.7

4.50

Dinamo Sassari

1.3

1.29

Cantu HC

+7.5

8.00

Dinamo Sassari HC

-7.5

-8.00

Point Line

172.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cantu are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

68

75

9

19

L 2

68

78

Apr 18

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

71

72

9

18

L 1

72

76

Apr 14

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

74

69

9

17

W 1

72

68

Apr 11

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

75

76

8

17

L 3

77

79

Apr 3

H

Enel Brindisi

L

71

93

8

16

L 2

74

88

Mar 21

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

57

70

8

15

L 1

62

65

Mar 14

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

92

85

8

14

W 1

87

80

Mar 7

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

79

82

7

14

L 1

80

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dinamo Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 5

A

Enel Brindisi

W

97

90

19

9

W 4

102

85

Apr 25

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

82

18

9

W 3

90

86

Apr 21

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

94

76

17

9

W 2

96

79

Apr 18

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

94

82

16

9

W 1

91

81

Apr 14

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

73

85

15

9

L 3

79

80

Apr 11

A

Universo Treviso

L

85

89

15

8

L 2

78

85

Apr 3

H

Virtus Bologna

L

77

108

15

7

L 1

82

101

Mar 27

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

84

15

6

W 1

90

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cantu and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dinamo Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dinamo Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cantu.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cantu (in the first graph) and by Dinamo Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cantu will expected to score 81 points and the Dinamo Sassari 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cantu

Dinamo Sassari

FG%

0.52

0.58

ASS

16.70

18.80

DRB

24.90

24.90

AST-TO

1.28

1.31

TRB

32.40

32.90

FTM

13.70

17.40

BL

2.60

1.70

FTA

17.90

22.00

PF-Fewer

17.80

18.90

ST

5.10

7.90

TO-Fewer

13.00

14.40

Ftper

0.76

0.79

ORBper

0.30

0.32

ORB

7.50

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Trieste vs Fortitudo Bologna at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Trieste and Fortitudo Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Trieste

1.6

2.58

Fortitudo Bologna

2.42

1.63

Trieste HC

-3.5

4.00

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+3.5

-4.00

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

79

73

13

14

W 2

76

72

Apr 18

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

101

88

12

14

W 1

99

88

Apr 14

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

69

81

11

14

L 4

71

84

Apr 11

A

Virtus Bologna

L

67

81

11

13</