2021 05 08 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Murcia vs Unicaja Malaga at 08 May 2021
Estudiantes vs Obradoiro at 09 May 2021
Real Betis vs Barcelona at 09 May 2021
Andorra vs Gran Canaria at 09 May 2021
Manresa vs Gipuzkoa at 09 May 2021
Real Madrid vs Valencia at 09 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Murcia vs Unicaja Malaga at 08 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 08 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Murcia

2.3

3.37

Unicaja Malaga

1.65

1.42

Murcia HC

+2.5

6.00

Unicaja Malaga HC

-2.5

-6.00

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 2

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

81

91

13

19

L 2

80

93

Apr 30

H

Valencia Basket

L

66

80

13

18

L 1

68

77

Apr 24

A

Acunsa GBC

W

88

78

13

17

W 4

84

86

Apr 15

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

84

55

12

17

W 3

83

58

Apr 11

H

Baskonia

W

92

87

11

17

W 2

97

86

Apr 4

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

85

75

10

17

W 1

80

75

Mar 28

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

82

90

9

17

L 1

77

93

Mar 24

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

82

70

9

16

W 1

82

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 1

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

102

93

15

16

W 1

98

90

Apr 24

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

78

101

14

16

L 2

73

99

Apr 18

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

61

79

14

15

L 1

64

74

Apr 15

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

88

74

14

14

W 1

83

77

Mar 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

93

101

13

14

L 1

93

95

Mar 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

85

83

13

13

W 1

84

86

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

61

75

Mar 13

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

82

76

12

12

W 3

81

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Murcia (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Murcia will expected to score 82 points and the Unicaja Malaga 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Murcia

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

14.70

16.90

DRB

22.20

23.10

AST-TO

1.03

1.18

TRB

31.20

32.60

FTM

18.20

15.30

BL

2.60

2.30

FTA

23.70

19.10

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.40

ST

6.10

6.00

TO-Fewer

14.30

14.30

Ftper

0.77

0.80

ORBper

0.40

0.41

ORB

8.90

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Estudiantes vs Obradoiro at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Estudiantes and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Estudiantes

1.47

1.57

Obradoiro

2.77

2.75

Estudiantes HC

-4.5

-4.50

Obradoiro HC

+4.5

4.50

Point Line

174.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

89

100

9

25

L 7

91

96

Apr 30

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

86

87

9

24

L 6

86

89

Apr 24

A

Manresa

L

101

102

9

23

L 5

96

101

Apr 18

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

82

96

9

22

L 4

81

101

Apr 15

A

Baskonia

L

92

96

9

21

L 3

97

95

Apr 11

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

77

101

9

20

L 2

80

95

Apr 4

H

UCAM Murcia

L

75

85

9

19

L 1

75

87

Mar 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

97

85

9

18

W 1

101

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 6

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

70

76

11

22

L 1

78

72

May 1

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

79

51

11

21

W 1

82

54

Apr 25

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

87

88

10

21

L 1

86

93

Apr 18

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

89

88

10

20

W 1

88

90

Apr 16

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

97

9

20

L 1

84

93

Apr 10

H

Manresa

W

90

87

9

19

W 1

86

86

Apr 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

82

84

8

19

L 1

82

86

Mar 27

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

66

8

18

W 1

75

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Estudiantes (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Estudiantes will expected to score 83 points and the Obradoiro 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Estudiantes

Obradoiro

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

15.60

15.00

DRB

22.20

21.00

AST-TO

1.29

1.15

TRB

32.40

29.50

FTM

11.70

14.80

BL

3.20

2.40

FTA

15.90

18.50

PF-Fewer

22.60

19.20

ST

6.40

5.70

TO-Fewer

12.10

13.00

Ftper

0.74

0.80

ORBper

0.46

0.41

ORB

10.20

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Barcelona at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

5.9

1.42

Barcelona

1.15

3.40

Real Betis HC

+10.5

-6.00

Barcelona HC

-10.5

6.00

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 2

H

Manresa

W

86

70

11

22

W 1

82

69

Apr 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

77

95

10

22

L 1

77

90

Apr 25

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

88

87

10

21

W 2

87

90

Apr 18

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

96

82

9

21

W 1

90

82

Apr 15

H

UCAM Murcia

L

55

84

8

21

L 1

55

86

Apr 10

A

Acunsa GBC

W

91

68

8

20

W 1

86

75

Apr 3

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

82

93

7

20

L 1

86

87

Mar 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

78

7

19

W 1

85

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

76

70

29

4

W 4

75

72

Apr 25

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

79

63

28

4

W 3

82

67

Apr 17

H

Manresa

W

97

89

27

4

W 2

92

88

Apr 14

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

92

74

26

4

W 1

91

76

Apr 11

H

Real Madrid

L

85

87

25

4

L 1

92

82

Apr 4

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

93

77

25

3

W 16

93

73

Mar 28

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

81

79

24

3

W 15

81

81

Mar 23

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

98

68

23

3

W 14

92

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 76 points and the Barcelona 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

Barcelona

FG%

0.50

0.48

ASS

13.80

15.10

DRB

20.50

18.00

AST-TO

1.07

1.14

TRB

30.90

26.70

FTM

15.00

13.20

BL

2.50

2.30

FTA

19.80

17.20

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.10

ST

7.90

8.30

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.30

Ftper

0.76

0.77

ORBper

0.51

0.48

ORB

10.50

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Gran Canaria at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.93

3.17

Gran Canaria

1.93

1.46

Andorra HC

-1.5

5.50

Gran Canaria HC

+1.5

-5.50

Point Line

157.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 6

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

71

13

18

W 1

85

73

May 1

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

51

79

12

18

L 5

50

82

Apr 28

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

89

99

12

17

L 4

83

97

Apr 25

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

79

12

16

L 3

70

75

Apr 4

H

Baskonia

L

68

82

12

15

L 2

71

81

Mar 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

85

97

12

14

L 1

80

97

Mar 21

H

Manresa

W

92

86

12

13

W 2

88

85

Mar 17

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

75

65

11

13

W 1

75

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 2

H

UCAM Murcia

W

91

81

15

17

W 2

91

83

Apr 25

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

83

74

14

17

W 1

83

70

Apr 18

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

88

89

13

17

L 2

87

92

Apr 14

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

92

13

16

L 1

83

87

Apr 11

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

103

84

13

15

W 4

99

81

Apr 3

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

84

76

12

15

W 3

78

75

Mar 28

A

Baskonia

W

99

78

11

15

W 2

104

77

Mar 21

H

Acunsa GBC

W

90

81

10

15

W 1

86

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 80 points and the Gran Canaria 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

15.20

15.50

DRB

23.20

21.00

AST-TO

1.12

1.24

TRB

32.80

29.70

FTM

13.30

13.30

BL

3.00

3.00

FTA

17.40

17.90

PF-Fewer

20.60

19.90

ST

6.50

7.50

TO-Fewer

13.60

12.50

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.41

0.41

ORB

9.60

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Gipuzkoa at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

1.19

1.23

Gipuzkoa

5.1

5.41

Manresa HC

-10.5

-8.50

Gipuzkoa HC

+10.5

8.50

Point Line

169.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 2

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

70

86

15

19

L 2

69

91

Apr 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

68

96

15

18

L 1

66

92

Apr 24

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

102

101

15

17

W 1

96

101

Apr 17

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

89

97

14