2021 05 08 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Efes vs Darussafaka at 09 May 2021
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Petkim Spor at 10 May 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Fethiye Belediye at 10 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Efes vs Darussafaka at 09 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Efes and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 09 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Efes

1.17

1.72

Darussafaka

4.8

2.39

Efes HC

-11.5

-3.00

Darussafaka HC

+11.5

3.00

Point Line

165.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 12

H

Tofas

W

87

85

27

1

W 5

87

80

Apr 4

A

Bursaspor

W

95

76

26

1

W 4

93

78

Mar 27

H

Socar Spor

W

87

80

25

1

W 3

87

82

Mar 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

98

89

24

1

W 2

104

86

Mar 14

H

Gaziantep

W

102

63

23

1

W 1

110

68

Mar 7

A

Afyon

L

85

103

22

1

L 1

79

103

Feb 28

H

Fethiye

W

101

85

22

0

W 21

94

90

Feb 9

A

Buyukcekmece

W

94

83

21

0

W 20

89

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

H

Socar Spor

W

99

78

16

13

W 1

100

80

Apr 18

A

Tofas

L

89

101

15

13

L 1

89

95

Apr 3

A

Gaziantep

W

82

76

15

12

W 2

89

82

Mar 28

H

Fethiye

W

96

81

14

12

W 1

90

86

Mar 20

A

Besiktas

L

93

98

13

12

L 1

94

93

Mar 13

H

Ormanspor

W

90

68

13

11

W 2

82

73

Mar 6

A

Galatasaray

W

98

87

12

11

W 1

92

85

Feb 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

64

66

11

11

L 1

69

61

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Efes (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Efes will expected to score 84 points and the Darussafaka 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Efes

Darussafaka

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

22.80

19.00

DRB

24.00

21.60

AST-TO

2.43

1.61

TRB

32.90

32.90

FTM

12.70

16.30

BL

3.20

2.90

FTA

16.80

21.00

PF-Fewer

15.60

23.60

ST

7.10

8.30

TO-Fewer

9.40

11.80

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.37

0.53

ORB

8.90

11.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Petkim Spor at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bahcesehir Koleji

3

1.59

Petkim Spor

1.37

2.71

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

+6.5

-4.00

Petkim Spor HC

-6.5

4.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 15

A

Besiktas

L

77

83

10

18

L 1

78

79

Apr 10

H

Fethiye

W

99

71

10

17

W 2

93

76

Mar 27

H

Ormanspor

W

92

65

9

17

W 1

84

70

Mar 20

A

Galatasaray

L

90

101

8

17

L 4

85

99

Mar 14

H

Fenerbahce

L

61

78

8

16

L 3

66

72

Mar 7

A

Bursaspor

L

64

67

8

15

L 2

62

69

Feb 27

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

83

96

8

14

L 1

88

93

Feb 9

A

Afyon

W

89

77

8

13

W 2

83

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 21

A

Darussafaka

L

78

99

9

20

L 7

80

97

Apr 18

H

Turk Telekom

L

65

71

9

19

L 6

65

75

Apr 15

H

Tofas

L

62

83

9

18

L 5

62

78

Mar 27

A

Anadolu Efes

L

80

87

9

17

L 4

87

79

Mar 21

A

Gaziantep

L

64

76

9

16

L 3

69

82

Mar 13

H

Fethiye

L

69

79

9

15

L 2

64

84

Mar 6

A

Besiktas

L

94

96

9

14

L 1

95

91

Feb 27

H

Ormanspor

W

83

76

9

13

W 2

76

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 81 points and the Petkim Spor 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bahcesehir Koleji

Petkim Spor

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

17.90

19.70

DRB

23.70

21.70

AST-TO

1.50

1.64

TRB

33.30

31.40

FTM

14.30

12.60

BL

2.50

2.00

FTA

19.20

17.30

PF-Fewer

20.90

21.10

ST

5.70

5.60

TO-Fewer

11.90

12.00

Ftper

0.75

0.73

ORBper

0.40

0.45

ORB

9.50

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Afyon Belediye vs Fethiye Belediye at 10 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 10 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Afyon Belediye

2.52

2.02

Fethiye Belediye

1.5

1.98

Afyon Belediye HC

+4.5

1.00

Fethiye Belediye HC

-4.5

-1.00

Point Line

167.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 30

A

Besiktas

L

75

104

12

17

L 6

76

99

Apr 27

H

Ormanspor

L

91

114

12

16

L 5

83

123

Apr 4

A

Galatasaray

L

70

110

12

15

L 4

66

107

Mar 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

87

97

12

14

L 3

94

90

Mar 21

A

Bursaspor

L

75

81

12

13

L 2

73

83

Mar 13

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

75

12

12

L 1

74

72

Mar 7

H

Anadolu Efes

W

103

85

12

11

W 1

111

77

Feb 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

83

95

11

11

L 3

79

96

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

H

Buyukcekmece

W

83

70

8

21

W 1

79

71

Apr 10

A

Bahcesehir

L

71

99

7

21

L 1

72

100

Apr 3

H

Turk Telekom

W

82

81

7

20

W 1

82

86

Mar 28

A

Darussafaka

L

81

96

6

20

L 2

83

94

Mar 20

H

Tofas

L

76

101

6

19

L 1

76

95

Mar 13

A

Socar Spor

W

79

69

6

18

W 1

79

71

Mar 7

H

Gaziantep

L

60

90

5

18

L 3

65

97

Feb 28

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

101

5

17

L 2

92

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 84 points and the Fethiye Belediye 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Afyon Belediye

Fethiye Belediye

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

20.20

19.20

DRB

21.90

23.00

AST-TO

1.41

1.45

TRB

31.90

31.60

FTM

11.20

11.80

BL

2.60

2.70

FTA

14.90

16.20

PF-Fewer

19.00

18.80

ST

7.10

5.50

TO-Fewer

14.30

13.20

Ftper

0.75

0.73

ORBper

0.46

0.37

ORB

10.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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